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Messages - kmart4503

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1
Ask the Experts / 1st Time Lasix
« on: October 31, 2018, 12:55:53 PM »
Hi All,

Wanted to get people\'s thoughts on 1st time Lasix.  I\'ve generally considered it as a -1 to -1.5 points, but didn\'t know if anyone has done any work on quantifying historically from an overall perspective and a Euro shipper perspective.

Thanks. KMart

2
Ask the Experts / Re: Third-ed
« on: November 02, 2016, 10:22:28 AM »
Thanks!

3
Ask the Experts / Re: Andy Beyer discusses revised turf figures
« on: November 19, 2015, 10:12:01 AM »
Beat me to it... Didn\'t see this when I began posting the same.

4
Ask the Experts / Beyer Figures Changes Discussion
« on: November 19, 2015, 10:10:25 AM »
For those with questions about the Beyer changes.  

Perhaps a good forum to submit a question and see if it gets answered.

Beyer - Discussion

KMart

5
Ask the Experts / Computer-Robotic Wagering
« on: November 17, 2015, 05:07:06 PM »
Interesting Article -

CRW Article - BloodHorse

KMart

6
Ask the Experts / Re: Juvi BC Runners
« on: October 22, 2015, 08:46:19 PM »
As promised I took a quick look at all the runners since 2006.

Some summary info is below:

Column 1 - Finish in BC Juvi
Column 2 - Avg. First Race Figure
Column 3 - Avg. Top Prior to BC Juvi
Column 4 - Avg. \"Development\" from first race to top
Column 5 - Avg. Improvement from top to BC Juvi figure


1 \\ 7.9  \\ 4.86 \\ 3.00 \\ (1.6)
2 \\ 8.2  \\ 3.22 \\ 4.94 \\ 0.9
3 \\ 10.6 \\ 4.39 \\ 6.17 \\ 1.5
4 \\ 11.2 \\ 6.42 \\ 4.75 \\ 1.2
5 \\ 10.0 \\ 4.44 \\ 5.53 \\ 2.5
6 \\ 14.9 \\ 5.67 \\ 9.25 \\ 2.5
7 \\ 16.1 \\ 6.42 \\ 9.69 \\ 2.7

7
Ask the Experts / Re: Juvi BC Runners
« on: October 22, 2015, 08:14:25 PM »
Nope, that is not me.

8
Ask the Experts / Re: Juvi BC Runners
« on: October 22, 2015, 01:41:34 PM »
That\'s fair and to your point I think it almost has to be on a case by case basis.

For instance if a horse ran a 24 then 10 then 8... I would be more inclined to say that the 24 was most likely a bad race due to being green.

But if a horse ran 12 then 6 then 3 and it seems like all solid races, then horse is most likely improving between start.  

Just trying to assess how progress from a first \"quality start\", if you will, to the best number ran prior to a Juvi race affects the likelihood of continuing to move forward vs. regressing.  Is there a magic number where the percentages seems to jump out... Is it 10 points of improvement or is there no correlation at all.  Definitely an art more than just a science.

Going to dig into it and see if anything jumps out.  I have a long flight from LaGuardia to Houston tonight to kill some time on and nothing else better to do.

KMart

9
Ask the Experts / Juvi BC Runners
« on: October 22, 2015, 09:02:02 AM »
Does anyone have any stats on prior 2 year olds heading into the BC Juvi races?

More specifically, if a two year old has move forwarded X points from their first start then it\'s X% likely not to continue to move forward or something around that... Mainly trying to understand if there is a points where development slows on average.

I\'m going to pull this myself, but thought it was worth asking before jumping into reviewing all the prior sheets.

Thanks,

KMart

10
Ask the Experts / Re: Beholder
« on: October 20, 2015, 04:50:18 PM »
Any thought on the medication?  

Mandella - \"I doubt she\'ll train tomorrow, we\'ll have to see what the fever does. But it\'s a great sign that she\'s responded well to medication. She hasn\'t been given anything that would interfere with racing.\"

11
Ask the Experts / Re: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics
« on: October 14, 2015, 04:12:32 PM »
A comment for most of the post position numbers being thrown out:

Not sure that purely wins by post position is a great indicator.  Perhaps, wins as a percentage of starters from each post might be more meaningful.

Just my 2 cents.

12
Ask the Experts / Re: BC Tickets
« on: March 08, 2015, 07:52:24 PM »
I\'m pretty sure the majority of the reserve seats were gone in the pre-sale that started 2/27.  I called maybe 10 times on the 27th before finally talking to an actual person and not an answering machine.  

Kmart

13
Ask the Experts / Re: Breeders Cup Contest Winner
« on: November 06, 2014, 02:59:31 PM »
Jack,

Glad you made it back! We had a great table and it was a pleasure to meet you and get to know you over the two days.  I\'m still trying to figure out where that lucky TV of yours is.


Cigar Street was our ticket to the big show, but it wasn\'t meant to be. Although, we did what we came there to do and can\'t be upset about that.

I\'m not sure I\'m going to make it out to Vegas, but I\'ll check with the wife and you never know.  But even if I can\'t I know our paths will cross again sooner or later.

Kevin

14
Ask the Experts / Re: Breeders Cup Contest Winner
« on: November 06, 2014, 10:01:50 AM »
I managed to hold down 31st... but could never get above 25th. Not a bad first contest.

KMart

15
Ask the Experts / American Pharoah out of Juvenile
« on: October 28, 2014, 11:11:12 AM »
per DRF.

KMart

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