Juvi BC Runners

[kmart4503]

Does anyone have any stats on prior 2 year olds heading into the BC Juvi races?

More specifically, if a two year old has move forwarded X points from their first start then it\'s X% likely not to continue to move forward or something around that... Mainly trying to understand if there is a points where development slows on average.

I\'m going to pull this myself, but thought it was worth asking before jumping into reviewing all the prior sheets.

Thanks,

KMart

[Bet Twice]

I\'m not sure that looking at first start and comparing to current numbers will yield much.  Some horses run poorly first out due to being green vs lack of current ability, and some horses come out running and don\'t need to improve much to be competitive.  Would suggest it depends on the horse and would be best to look at sire stats to see how much the offspring generally improve 2 to 3, but even then wouldn\'t allow that to factor in too much.

[kmart4503]

That\'s fair and to your point I think it almost has to be on a case by case basis.

For instance if a horse ran a 24 then 10 then 8... I would be more inclined to say that the 24 was most likely a bad race due to being green.

But if a horse ran 12 then 6 then 3 and it seems like all solid races, then horse is most likely improving between start.  

Just trying to assess how progress from a first \"quality start\", if you will, to the best number ran prior to a Juvi race affects the likelihood of continuing to move forward vs. regressing.  Is there a magic number where the percentages seems to jump out... Is it 10 points of improvement or is there no correlation at all.  Definitely an art more than just a science.

Going to dig into it and see if anything jumps out.  I have a long flight from LaGuardia to Houston tonight to kill some time on and nothing else better to do.

KMart

[TGJB]

The right way to measure development is from the first figure that is demonstrably an effort, i.e. the horse bounces or pairs up. Forward movement before that should be viewed as the horse getting fitter or learning what he\'s doing.

[Tavasco]

Looking back at a recent sample of BC Juvenile successes. Reading left to right oldest to most recent. Shanghai Bobby wins with a 9 Uncle Mo with a 0. Ground Loss - Union Rags runs 4 pts faster than Hansen to place, Looking @Lucky wasn\'t. But if you can\'t run a six forget ah bout it.

Looking for a meaningful pattern in such a small sample is probably folly. Looking for a losing pattern might be easier due to larger sample. What I do see that I\'m going to research a little further.

1. Second Route (c/b more coincidental than predictive)
2. Never gone back
3. High Profile Outfits (Baffert & Pletcher)

Texas Red 12 12, 9, 3, 2

New Years Day 10, 10, 6

Shanghai Bobby 7, 5, 5, 2, 9

Hansen 6, 6, 6
Union Rags 10, 3, 3, 2

Uncle Mo 0, 0, 0
Boys@Tosconova 10, -1, -2, 2

Vale of York 13, 11, 9, 9, 8, 6
Looking@Lucky 7, 6, 6, 6, 3

Midshipman  6, 6, 4, 4

[mistermoose]

Hey Kmart- Sorry to go off topic, but are you the same kmart that posts
 on the Hobart forums? Back on topic, looking forward to the seminar next
 week. I will be focusing on horses that draw inside in the routes, and
 think there will be some big favorites that will suffer from the draw
 which should make for some juicy horizontal action.

[kmart4503]

Nope, that is not me.

[kmart4503]

As promised I took a quick look at all the runners since 2006.

Some summary info is below:

Column 1 - Finish in BC Juvi
Column 2 - Avg. First Race Figure
Column 3 - Avg. Top Prior to BC Juvi
Column 4 - Avg. \"Development\" from first race to top
Column 5 - Avg. Improvement from top to BC Juvi figure


1 \\ 7.9  \\ 4.86 \\ 3.00 \\ (1.6)
2 \\ 8.2  \\ 3.22 \\ 4.94 \\ 0.9
3 \\ 10.6 \\ 4.39 \\ 6.17 \\ 1.5
4 \\ 11.2 \\ 6.42 \\ 4.75 \\ 1.2
5 \\ 10.0 \\ 4.44 \\ 5.53 \\ 2.5
6 \\ 14.9 \\ 5.67 \\ 9.25 \\ 2.5
7 \\ 16.1 \\ 6.42 \\ 9.69 \\ 2.7

[Fairmount1]

Very interesting stuff.  I am more interested with juveniles as to how the horses since bc started have ran previously over the bc track have fared vs those that havent.  

Mjellish pointed out some horses may not like the surface.  Wouldnt juvy and juvy fillies be most susceptible to not adjusting if they havent raced at kee?  Combine that with ground loss based on post position possibly and you may have a significant edge in these 2 races.  Agree with mjellish that inside trip till stretch drive where tipped out is best style for routes at kee this meet.

[Tavasco]

A little more research Juveniles where their 2nd route was the BCJ and they had not yet backed up. I use the term bounce to describe a regression of 3+ pts really an X. Regression means backwards but less than 3 and I think in all cases it was 2 or less. Side note - I didn\'t realize Mine That Bird ran in the BCJ under Mandella\'s tutelage.

My take:
1) most horses move backward in this race
2) in the group I was interested in above a very high pct regress most bounce
3) find one that won\'t regress & have a good chance of winning

Note - this data doesn\'t include the winners that I noted in the previous post. Here are the also-rans.

2014
Carpe Diem - Bounce
Upstart - Bounce
Souper Colossal - Bounce
Blue Dancer - New Top of 16?
Daredevil - Mega Bounce

2013
Tap It Rich - paired up - Baffert
Dance With Fate = backed up 2 pts

2012
Shanghai Bobby - bounced & won
Capo Bastone - bounced
Fortify - bounced
Title Contender - bounced
Monument - bounce

2011
Creative Cause - pair
Fort Loudon - pair
Drill - bounce
Alpha - bounce
Daddy Lon Legs - bounce
Prospective - bounce

2010
Biondetti - pair
Jaycito = bounce
Riveting Reason - bounce

2009
Nobles Promise - backed up
Aikenite - bounced
Aspire - bounced took up

2008
Street Hero - top
Silent Valor - regressed
Munnings - bounce