Ask The Experts

Paul Matties twitter post today: \"It was nobody\'s fault but the track at Saratoga was different for every race on Saturday. Regardless of the maker, all figures from that card will be made up. And probably, wrong.\"

He may well need a break after these recent efforts. I have no doubt that the connections will do right by the horse.

In the Santa Anita Derby, even though it was only a 5 horse field, Rispoli managed to get this horse in a horrible spot on the rail entering the far turn. He exchanged several leans and bumps with Barnes to his outside and was clearly uncomfortable. Rispoli had to vigorously ride him to finally get him off the rail and in the clear where he responded with an impressive outside move on the turn for the win.
In the Derby. he had a slow break. lost his path in traffic , and ended up in a very tight spot into the first turn. He finally found an open spot on the backstretch and after guided off the rail, he made a very strong wide move to the wire.

In my opinion, he has shown a lot of GRIT with less than ideal trips in his recent races.

She is definitely a filly to tab going forward - as she could have easily finished 2nd in the race with a better ride. She had a below average break and landed inside towards the rear of the field. Ortiz had her in  a good spot right behind the winner along the backstretch. For some inexplicable reason he gave that spot up to the eventual 2nd place finisher and got shuffled several lengths and positions to the top of the stretch. When she finally found some daylight in traffic mid stretch she made a huge close in the last 1/16th. Much better effort than looked on paper.

I\'m not a big fan of betting on dirt sprinters off 6 point tops - but with the way the track is playing today you can\'t overlook the #1 in this race. Additionally, the trainer just won the prior race and it appears the #1 breezed at Keeneland with that one and only beaten a tick in the work by his older stablemate. Currently 7/1...

Despite the ground loss, if Irad doesn\'t crack the #10 left handed hard twice in mid stretch he wins. He lost his momentum and veered out several paths as a result of the excessive whip, by the time he was corrected it was too late. A very talented but inexperienced horse - who had cantered in his last race. Irad should know better - he cost the connections the race.

Here is the Spa weather forecast from Marshall Sterling this a.m. on twitter He is the best I\'ve ever seen.

Belmont At Saratoga Opening Week
Thursday - 🌧🌧 rain for most of the day totaling around an inch
Friday - 🌧 light rain throughout the day totaling a quarter inch
Saturday - 🌧 light rain in the morning totaling a tenth of an inch

An interesting and informative post regarding TAP\'s historical stats for his Derby starters. I also agree that this race goes through Fierceness, as to whether you toss him or key him. He has clearly shown that on his best day that he can run a TG number that would easily trounce his competition.

However, I believe that his success our failure will be determined in the opening quarter mile of the Derby. If he gets away from the gate cleanly and lands in a forward position with no outside pressure, I believe that he will run his race which should get him the win. But, if he has a troubled start (ie. bumped, steadied and lands in a tight spot early, he has demonstrated that he will get rank and not settle which will take him totally out of his game.

After watching the tape of his defeats, he was away from the gate poorly, had early trouble in both instances before he landed in bad spots and was no factor. I have no doubt that after the Holy Bull, he spent many extra mornings getting gate schooled, which led to a much cleaner break in the Fl Derby.

Additionally, his post position draw will be critical to his establishment of an early forward position , as if draws inside with speed to his outside, he could easily get cooked early or buried behind his rivals.

In the end, it will be a fascinating race to handicap and bet.

Good Luck

Glad to know that your still hanging around - and it\'s not even Derby week!