Fierceness, Derby Decisions

[Tavasco]

I appreciate your statistics and the effort that went into compiling them. My view of Fierceness in the derby is focused on what are his weaknesses, not his well-known strengths.

Remember that Thorobred Horse trainers are generally blue-collar practical-minded people. Meaning their success revolves around having an advantage. Picking spots where their entry has an advantage. A good horse against a weak field. Using Jockeys who excel at getting the right position, avoiding ground loss and otherwise exploiting the weaknesses of competitors.

Some cross the line in their zeal for advantages. OK point made! Simply put Fierceness\' Achilles heal is not controlling a race from the front. Remembering a few years back Baffert had the best older horse in the country. Game on Dude won a string of stakes races by going to the lead (saving ground) throttling down and holding off late runners.

Then as several astute trainers realized Game On Dude couldn\'t pass horses in races. So they threw rabbits at him and it worked so well Baffert complained about how unfair it was and in short order retired Game On Dude.

Two Trainers have the ability to send capable rabbits out in the Kentucky Derby. Both Chad Brown and Brad Cox. IMO, are well advised to send their speed horse to the front ahead of Fierceness.

The result and my play is the Closers from Brown & Cox along with the Run All Day Japanese bred colt who has proven able to chase a pacesetter and grind him down.

Of Course Jockey Johnny Velasquez may be too smart to be suckered and Fierceness more flexible than I imagine.

[Roman]

Johnny does not make many mistakes. He bas to go to the front, otherwise he folds like one of my suits.

[Fairmount1]

If you guys want to get down to the bottom line, there have been 3 Derbies run without LASIX.  

Only 2 horses have come into the race in those 3 runnings with a Negative number on their sheet.  Taiba, -.5 and Essential Quality who had a -.5 at OP before running 0 in Kee in his final prep.  

Taiba ran a 10 3/4 in the Derby with Yakteen at the helm.  Essential Quality ran a -.5 when he crossed the wire in 4th.  

Is Fierceness going to run a Neg number next Saturday?  If so, he likely wins.  If not, he could still win but it is \"wide open\" as they say.  It will be really interesting to see what the Host says in his seminar this year. I\'ve already made my stance known that I don\'t believe TAP will get him to the winner\'s circle.  But on paper, he \"towers\" over the field much like Dreaming of Julia did in the 2013 Oaks.  
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The Top 4 finishers of the last 3 Derby\'s (all Lasix-free)

2021:  1.5 Medina Spirit, 1.25 Mandaloun, .5 Hot Rod Charlie, -.5 Essential Quality

2022:  1.5 Rich Strike, 2.25 Epicenter, 3.25 Zandon, 2.5 Simplification

2023:  0 Mage, 1.5 Two Phil\'s, 2 Angel of Empire, 3.5 Disarm

[HandRide]

Thanks for the research. If you assume it will take about a 1 to win, there are only 3 horses that have run fast enough so far. Given Todd’s history and just the overall history of horses with negative numbers coming in, it’s very likely Fierceness bounces. He can bounce a little and still win but that’s tough to take on a favorite.

Sierra Leone is another who could bounce. A couple other things concern me about him: Chad giving him more time between the FG race and Blue grass than he gets coming into this one doesn’t make sense. He’s used that path in the past with Zandon who ran well but still off his top. Similar pattern with Highly Motivated too. Sierra also seems to be a bit green with his gate antics and drifting down the stretch, that may be amplified on derby day. Finally, I can’t see Tyler being patient enough to get a ground saving trip. Not that any jock wants to get a horse stopped but especially not the second choice in the derby. He will have to lose a lot of ground at some point so even if he runs a pair it probably isn’t good enough because of this.  

Forever Young is the third that’s run fast enough. If he had improved at all this year I’d love him but as is he could go either way. He’d be trying to do something that many before him have tried, none successfully, in running well out of Dubai which is hard to trust.

It’s hard for me to get too excited about any of these 3 so I’m very interested to see what the seminar thinks of who might jump forward. Resilience, Honor Marie and Catching Freedom seem interesting.

[HP]

Years ago riders were thought to be a little tentative riding in the Derby?  The trend more recently has been a fast pace?  If Fierceness is going to get beat it’s because he’s not going to get :24 and :47.5 early like the Florida Derby.  And the early action isn’t necessarily from “rabbits” but folks who think they can actually win getting out early.  If he draws way outside and has to really gun it from out there into a faster pace that could be rough.  Johnny V is good, he’s not a magician.

I like Encino a little, looking for more prices.

HP

[statuette]

He is in post #17

[Roman]

Encino is a very interesting horse. Gets the young kid, which I kind of like. Should he break good out of the gate, should be fowardly placed,  and has natural speed. There are a few need the lead types in the race, and Encino can rate if needed . Brad Cox has quite the trio in this one.

[jerry]

From a TG perspective, Fierceness is a bounce. Bounce and win? Maybe. But from post 17 Johnny V’s got to gun it from the gate to make it to the rail by the first turn and that’s going to take some starch out of him. I think he quits.

[HP]

Sorry I missed the draw, in my opinion 17 is not great but others may think it doesn’t matter because he’s going early regardless.  I’m not 100% on the bounce either as these 3 year olds can pair tops.  Granted this is a big top but maybe he’s just that good?  I don’t need much encouragement to toss a favorite, we’ll see as the week goes on!

HP

[grinder]

I guess the good news for his connections is that he definitely won\'t get buried inside.

[johnnym]

Morning

I wonder if the horse knows all those stats?

My initial thought after the BCC was this horse was squeezed to much to early with a - TG #.
Then he ran thru the wind in the FL derby and his # got even lower!
Initial thought I can’t wait to bet against him!
From a pure TG angle he is the fastest horse and IF the Fl derby # is good his history screams bounce.
 Pletcher in the past has used the F.O.Y to FL derby angle.
This year he went Holy Bull, FL derby angle.
I was at Gulfstream Holy Bull day I went to the paddock to observe the goods and even my wife said, he looks dull. His performance reflected his appearance.

Fast forward to FL derby, this is not the same horse I saw Holy Bull day, he ran to his looks. Again after his FL derby I was of the opinion I can’t wait to bet against him..

As time passed watching workouts etc it really seems as this horse might just be flourishing.
Another point made every other horse in the race has to move forward to beat him, even if he pairs or runs an off.
Pletcher after a horse runs a new top runs a X 22% of the time and at CD runs an X 27% of the time.
The Pace:I do see a fast pace, I just don’t see Johnny V getting sucked into a pace duel.. Break, relax get into your 46 1/2 mile rhythm. I say horse will be sitting 4th on the outside going into the first turn.

I agree with HandRide the top 3 choices all have chinks in the armor.

If you toss Fierceness it’s a wide open race numbers wise..

I’m still on the fence but have a strong lean towards Fierceness.

Enjoy the conversation.
Good Luck

PS. Post 17 post has never won the derby. If your into that..

[Fairmount1]

As requested by a TG poster [early, early this morning before I had even jogged 5 miles to get going on a Sunday :-)], Pletcher\'s record after Super Saver won the Derby in 2010:

33-1-0-3-0

He had multiple horses every year except for 2011 and the Sept, 2020 Derby.  He only had Stay Thirsty (Repole) in 2011 and Money Moves in 2020.  He sends out only one this year obviously.  

After those 4 that hit in the top 3 listed above:

12th, 13th, 16th, 11th, 14th, 10th, 12th, 17th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 6th, 14th, 6th, 14th, 9th, 17th, 11th, 18th, 13th, 9th, 11th, 13th, 18th, 5th, 16th, 19th, 7th, 14th.  

Less than 50% hit the top 10 counting the ones that hit the board.  

If Churchill Downs could add up the number of dollars bet on all of Todd\'s runners since 2000, I\'d love to know that figure.  

[wrongly2]

My man!  Love the action.

I\'m hoping the track changes a bit, speed favoring in my mind last night.  By the way turf looked great last night!  Can\'t wait to bet Stiched on Thursday.

No way, no how, despite the perfect draw; does Fierceness wire this field.  Also Sierra Leon off 3 point new point is not for me.  No one is talking about Mystik Dan.  Does he hate distance or was last a bounce off a big new top.  Came back with a bullet work.  Watch out for McPEEEEK!  Love his top and his odds.

Lastly, haven\'t we all seen the Japaneses invaders enough now to know.  I won\'t steal Jerry\'s thunder but on numbers he\'s the one.

Best of luck to all you degenerates!

[TGJB]

Which of those was Always Dreaming

[Fairmount1]

(If I am understanding your q correctly,)

Always Dreaming was the 1 in the 33-1-0-3-0 stat in line 2 of my post.

The 29 other finishers that I listed didn\'t include the four that hit the board out of those 33.

I didn\'t include stats from 2010 when Super Saver won. These were from 2011 through 2023.

Thought I made that clear in the post but if not, I hope this helps.

Also, would you consider posting an undercard race for Derby or Oaks Day as the ROTW (just the sheets) and folks can post their analysis, picks, etc on the board if they have time (Mine will run out this evening until Friday morning at the Downs likely)?  Maybe it will entice folks Derby week to buy a whole TG card??