Ask The Experts

I\'ll throw in one more idea I have to help the fan base -

For the following bets - WPS, Ex, DD, and maybe Tri and P3 - why not give a 10% payout increase to on-track bettors only.  And only for the host track\'s races, not for simulcast races.  That\'s one way to increase on-track attendance and betting.

Ken

No Lasix.  I think the general rule-of-thumb was that Lasix meant a 2-point jump.  And then there\'s the \"supposed\" crackdown on EPO & stuff like that.

One correction - Point Given won the Preakness & Belmont, but not the Derby.  But your point is still valid.

At the start it looked like a little of both.  SL didn\'t break smoothly, and then Irad bumped him a little.  But in the stretch it was all SL - it looked like he may have bumped Honor M and then veered in sharply and bumped someone else.  I was surprised there was no inquiry.  I\'m wondering if he gets spooked by crowd noise, and maybe they should try those Gate Dancer ear muffs on him.

I like Heavy too, for the same reasons, plus the sire improvement stat from 2 to 3 is a 4-pt. jump.  Only thing is, in advance betting, he\'s down to 7-1.  We\'ll see if that holds.

Here\'s mine.

Years - 1995-2023 excluding 2020.  Note: I included the 2 fillies who ran Oaks/Preakness - Rachel Alexandra, Secret Oath.

I used the standards from previous Derby seminars of -
Top - more than 1 pt. faster than previous top
Pair - within 1 pt. either way of the previous top
Off - 1-4 pts. worse than top
X - more than 4 pts. worse than top

Top in Derby:
------------
Preakness:
Top   1    3.8%
Pair  7   26.9%
Off  12   46.2%
X     6   23.1%

Pair in Derby:
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Preakness:
Top   9   22.0%
Pair 12   29.3%
Off  14   34.1%
X     6   14.6%

Off in Derby:
------------
Preakness:
Top   4   15.4%
Pair  6   23.1%
Off  11   42.3%
X     5   19.2%

X in Derby:
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Top   2    6.1%
Pair  7   21.2%
Off   9   27.3%
X    15   45.4%

Total of all who ran in both:
----------------------------
Preakness:
Top  16   12.7%
Pair 32   25.4%
Off  46   36.5%
X    32   25.4%

Lukas
_____
Derby 3 top, Preakness 2 pair, 1 top
Derby 6 pair, Preakness 2 top, 2 pair, 2 off
Derby 5 off, Preakness 1 pair, 2 off, 2 X
Derby 4 X, Preakness 1 top, 1 pair, 2 X

The X-pair is closest to Just Steel - in 2009, Flying Private ran a top of 2 in March, a small off in the Ark. Derby, a 15-pt. X in the Derby, and then a return to top in the Preakness, finishing a good 4th to Rachel A.

Lukas also won the Preakness in 2013 with Oxbow off a 4.25 X in the Derby, but a 2.25 new top in the Preakness.

The other 2 Derby X\'s:
High Yield 2000 - 3 - 5 - 11.5 Derby - 8.25 Preak.
Gone Wild 2005 - 4 - 15.75 - 10.5 - 15.5 Derby - 17.25 Preak.

I can also go back 1 year to 1994, when Tabasco Cat paired in the Derby and then ran a 3.5 new top to win the Preakness.

McPeek
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He has only 1 example, and it\'s similar to Mystik Dan -
Harlan\'s Holiday 2002 ran 3 pts. off his top in the Derby (same as Mystik Dan), and then ran 1 point better in the Preakness than the Derby.

Baffert
_______
We all remember last year when he couldn\'t run in the Derby, but National Treasure matched his 3-yr old top of 4 in the Preakness (!.25 slower than his 2-yr old top), but still won because of a rail trip and a weak field.

I found 1 other where he skipped the Derby and ran in the Preakness - Governor Charlie ran a top in late March, but then a 9.5 X in the Preakness.  I will say I don\'t believe he was anywhere nearly as highly regarded as Muth.  His top was in the Sunland Derby - where Baffert runs his second-stringers.

Ken

Thanks for posting this.  I\'m alive with 6 and 14.  Any idea what the consolation DD would pay if the trainer of 14 convinces the owner to scratch?