Journalism

[catcapper]

Journalism is clearly the superior horse.
He has the sweetest stride I’ve seen since American Pharoah.
Though, I need to watch more Luxor Cafe videos as he is the best looking specimen to me in the race. Not leaving him out.
I think Journalism is vulnerable under certain trip conditions which I think have a good chance of playing out.  He will follow the speed inside, but there is outside speed coming over too. Not everyone is going to make it.
He has Burnham Sq and Hernandez and Grande and Velazquez next over. He can easily get trapped on the rail with no easy out. He overcame adversity in the SA Drby but that wasn’t a real battle. He won’t get out so easily this time if he is pinned in. He could get schooled. Do you think Hernandez or Velazquez  will let him out?  He will to hang tight and wait for a hole, and consequently, he may not be among the first to make their move.
At 3-1 or less and giving that very possible trip scenario and my bankroll, I have to leave him out of first place.
Nevertheless, may the best horse win

[Tavasco]

Most agree with you that is why Journalism is the favorite. But at what price is he an under/over lay. For me I\'ll put him on top @ 4/1 or greater. The groundswell on him is growing and I\'m beginning to think he may go to post @ 5/2. yep most value elsewhere?

[jbelfior]

The winning margins of past Santa Anita Derby victors who went on to capture the roses going back to 1969.

Justify by 3 1/2, California Chrome by 5 1/4, I\'ll Have Another (by a nose followed up by similar in the Derby), Point Given by 5 1/2, Sunday Silence by 5, Winning Colors by 7 1/2, Affirmed by 8, Majestic Prince by 8.

All but one dominated the race.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[johnnym]

Over head view of Journalism trouble in the Santa Anita Derby.
https://x.com/frenchwaterbtl/status/1917203036906357095

Make your own opinions.
I am taking his last number with a grain of salt.

Good Luck
John

[kencbs]

One correction - Point Given won the Preakness & Belmont, but not the Derby.  But your point is still valid.

[ajkreider]

The jock getting him stuck in a five horse field should have his fans worried. If Point Given could get defeated by traffic, so can this horse.

[T Severini]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most agree with you that is why Journalism is the
> favorite. But at what price is he an under/over
> lay. For me I\'ll put him on top @ 4/1 or greater.
> The groundswell on him is growing and I\'m
> beginning to think he may go to post @ 5/2. yep
> most value elsewhere?

Current odds 4-1, anticipate they come down when the masses are drinking Juleps.

To the Original Poster, Journalism found trouble in a five horse field, despite being inside. Judging by your theme, I think you know Rispoli nudged a horse penning him in to find room. He lost some number power in the scuffle for sure.

He\'s the best horse on a number of factors. The TFigs, the momentum, consistency, (as far as that\'s discernable in the modern era), his closing energy number is tops in the field.  That said, he found trouble in a five horse field. Theres a good group of late movement horses and if Journalism finds some broken branches in his path that\'s all it would take to ruin the party. He\'s not a stone closer. With the draw and speed inside, expect him towards rail and well positioned. The reality is... They are all improving now. We\'ll see.

Premonition... Bet a straight trifecta for luck already Romans 20-30-50 if it rings up, I\'ll buy and throw in the Uber too.