Derby Preps

[FrankD.]

I don\'t believe on the surface yesterday told us too much. Danzig Candy stretched out nicely on a very speed friendly strip but can anyone really see him at 10 furlongs? The one two TAP Tampa show screams out his typical MO and those not only from Missouri will say show me the first Saturday in May.

So what do we think we know?

Brody\'s Cause by all reports was not cranked for yesterday\'s run, IMHO Romans thought he could make his big run as a conditioner and gobble up some points.
A total non effort, Tampa is a funny surface that many good horses have not run well on.

Exaggerator was sharpened up with his previous 7 furlong run and I for one thought he was really on his toes yesterday and the most logical winner. A tremendous powerful run was launched and then flattened out. Was this a winning move that the race track stopped or conditioning?

Mor Spirit is a tougher read with his grinding workmanlike running style. He was needing only a few points in his next 2 preps to assure a spot coming in to yesterday. Was it a public workout with a little run at the end to get by Exaggerator and BB will tighten the screws down for the SA Derby? Buffert has to be without a doubt the top dog at readying them for a TC campaign.D Wayne and Zito are long past relevant and Woody is long gone, there is only one guy who is there year in and year out and not just in the entry box.

Economic Model had the Brownie\'s chirping the past 2 weeks about how well he was doing and was sitting on a big one.

Shagaf seems to have some ability and fits very well pedigree wise but has a lot to do. The Maktoum\'s having been trying every training angle over the past 20 years to win a derby, they look like they have their best chance this year just in time. If Trump is elected president they won\'t be able to get into the country for next years derby!

In the spirit of Jimbo wherever he is these days I don\'t see anything coming out of Louisiana.

I guess it\'s east vs west in the battle of the undefeated and maybe a nice rivalry  can develop.

8 weeks out and let\'s hope they all can stay sound.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[jbelfior]

Looked like they were experimenting with Exaggerator yesterday. He has a nice turn of foot and an early developed Curlin is a scary thought going 1 1/4 against this bunch.

May be worth a sawbuck or 2 at 25-1 in the futures.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Silver Charm]

My 2 Cents. Have bet Exaggerator 3 times now and wonder if he isn\'t just a Miler. Flattens out and can\'t finish. Is what it people hard to keep making excuses for him.

Mor Spirit I said here weeks ago he is going to be a Project to just get him to the Derby. Has NO acceleration and it is probably for various reasons. He has ability just don\'t know how sound he is. Probably has not developed in last 90 days. Hard to train.

Tampa winner has developed in last 90 days. How much more remains to be seen. Brodys Cause? Pretty bad effort. One more Prep left probably at Keeneland. These Derby Preps have become like these Election Results. The ones who win get slammed as being slow weak. The ones who lose claim victory as they got everything they want out of and we move on. I\'m keeping my eye on that Twirling Candy. Winning by daylight. Makes his own trip not his own excuses....

[miff]

Both Destin and Candy received 100 Beyers and similar figs at other fig makers putting them in the TG 1 range, good for this years group so far.

Not really warm and fuzzy about yesterday\'s preps. Mor Spirit looked particularly grindy after having a work hiccup about ear plugs but heard otherwise.Brodys Cause and Exaggerator do not seem like serious threats.

Still seems wide open.

[ajkreider]

No idea if Danzing Candy can stretch out, but not sure how much speed there is in this crop.  The two favs look like stalkers and the others are off the pace types.  I could see him getting away.  Looked like there was more there, as he ran with Mor Spirit in the gallop out.  

Really did not like how Exaggertor shut down immediately and the jock took him to the outside of the track.  First thought was he we hurt.  

Can\'t put much stake in a track record when there are two horses within a length.  And Tampa is Pletcher\'s playground.

[johnnym]

Looking forward to seeing Suddenbreakingnews run next weekend..
Lets see what this guy bring\'s to the table..
Frank, I missed your pick 4 yesterday,as I would be lying if I told you I have not tailed you a couple of times..

[big18741]

Danzing Candy looked good and might keep going.Big long striding horse.

Bottom of his pedigree going back a few generations there is a lot of long distance grass breeding.

Exxagerator looks like a sprinter miler going back to last year.
Could be wrong but I don\'t see more distance helping him.

Mor Spirit probably wants more distance but in a twenty horse field he\'d need a
lot of things to go right.He has no burst/turn of foot so he\'d have to avoid traffic.

Destin\'s full brother Creative Cause did his best running at 8.5f\'s and yesterday in deep stretch he looked gassed(from the head on drifting out/in)so he may be at his limits distance wise.

Gotta see them all go nine furlongs but I want Danzing Candy out of those four if I had to pick one now as a Derby horse.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB where do I hit the \"Like\" button here?

[FrankD.]

It was a good day to miss me, I could not decide on a post of any of the 8 pick 4\'s I played all unsuccessfully. OUCHIE!!!

[ajkreider]

I was hoping SBN would be a bit under the radar.  But third choice in the future pool says that ship has sailed.

[Michael D.]

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Danzing Candy looked good and might keep going.Big
> long striding horse.
>
> Bottom of his pedigree going back a few
> generations there is a lot of long distance grass
> breeding.


2nd dam is the dam of Better Talk Now, who raced for 15, maybe 20 years and won like 50 grade 1 routes, including the BC Turf. I\'m pretty sure I bet against him every time.


> Exxagerator looks like a sprinter miler going back
> to last year.
> Could be wrong but I don\'t see more distance
> helping him.

he\'s too small.
 
> Mor Spirit probably wants more distance but in a
> twenty horse field he\'d need a
> lot of things to go right.He has no burst/turn of
> foot so he\'d have to avoid traffic.


I disliked this one then kind of got on board after his last. but no burst/turn of foot is probably an understatement. final 1/8 was good but not great. the owner did say before the race that Bullet Bob told him not to be disappointed if he lost. said it wouldn\'t matter, not the goal.

 
> Destin\'s full brother Creative Cause did his best
> running at 8.5f\'s and yesterday in deep stretch he
> looked gassed(from the head on drifting out/in)so
> he may be at his limits distance wise.

home in 6.31 and 6.55. five or six lengths in ground loss makes the race a bit better than it looks, but eight and a half furlongs is probably best.


> Gotta see them all go nine furlongs but I want
> Danzing Candy out of those four if I had to pick
> one now as a Derby horse.

[mjellish]

Rebel will be an interesting race from what I can see.  Sudden Breaking News not the only one that could take a big step forward.  Whitmore, Siding Spring, Cupid, Ralis, Discreetness, American Dubai.

[JEB]

Hate to admit this but Zulu, at the future price, was intriguing. I know Pletcher has struggled at the derby but at 26-1, he looks like he could improve and may not have left too much on the table. A move up in the Florida Derby(not a huge one though) would have me really liking him on derby day.

[ajkreider]

Would love to get your views on those.

Cupid could be any kind. Not sure he beat much in his last, but Baffert does so well at Oaklawn.

Ralis ran great in the Hopeful.  Then a whole lotta nothing and a lot of time off.  Would be asking a lot for a win against a more accomplished in form bunch.

American Dubai was the best of the speed in the last, but the pace wasn\'t that taxing.  We might have seen his best.  

Discreetness was crazy wide on the first turn, and spotted the field a point of weight. This one has every right to improve.

Whitmore ran second best by a mile.  Big run wide on the final turn.  That\'s a winning move in most races.

SBN was so much better than the field in the last part of the race, a bit of a bounce might be expected.

Edit: Forgot Cherry Wine will be in there as well.  He will by vying for favoritism.

[ringato3]

Mike,

Strange year in that there are two undefeated \"big name\" colts (Nyquist and Mohaymen) and many still feel it is wide open.

Only mid-March but tend to agree.  

As for this weekend\'s preps, was really hoping to start to fall in love with somebody, but very hard to see that.  Like many on the board seem to agree based on posts, the San Felipe winner likely best, but then again two speedballs were taken back early for god knows what reason and two other pace pressers were also well off a mediocre pace.  And the track seemed to be playing a bit skewed to front runners although will wait for bias figures to confirm.  So, the 100 Beyer was achieved under optimal conditions.  

Had Exaggerator high on my list.  Thought the San vicente was a perfect prep race and expected him to fire big.  Strange ride by Kent taking him way back to last, only to make big middle move and flatten out late.  Glass half full = huge middle move in a race where nobody made a single move and the frontrunner wired.  Glass half empty - a horse that has shown signs of distance limitations before and is smallish in size, once again had no punch late.  

Brody\'s Cause - disgusting.  Ran a handful of steps.  Hard to imagine a worse race and when you specifically target a two race prep schedule, you need to do better.  Scratch him off the list.

Rob