Pimlico Special

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve had a chance to review two separate groups of figures for the \"Special\" now and courtesy of T-Graph the Race of the Week is the Special Also. I\'m not sure who I\'m going to bet yet or who the favorite will be, though morning line its Funny Cide. But what I do know, and I\'ll analyze it on T-Graph to stay in context, is this:

Midway Road just ran a phenomenal figure and he ran credibly in his only other Pimlico start, so those are positives. On the other hand these factors have to be considered:

-He just ran a Five Point Top over the same track he had earned his previous top apon (+1).

-that previous top was a 3.2 point top and thereafter he had a 3.2 point regression to (+4.2). Keep in mind he is set up for the same track and time off spacing as the last time he ran a top and regressed.

-That previous top seems to have set him back physically and if not he sure came up with some kind of malady with the amount of time away from the races.

-Additionally his other top efforts really dont put him in the ballpark with the majority of runners in this field if he doesnt\' repeat or near repeat the scalding slop race last.

-Finally that new top was set in essentially uncontested fashion on a sloppy surface. The pace seems to indicate that Southern Image and Funny will both be at his throat latch where he was winging last.

To summarize, I think Midway LOVES Keeneland. The other point to his benefit is that he seems figure wise to be a better horse than he was at 3. But I certainly will be betting him to ricochet.

[MO]

CTC,

Yep, MR seems to freak at Keeneland and his last in the slop at such freakishly fast figure forces me to take the stand - Oh yeah? Show me you can pair. I say you\'ll bounce to the moon.

Funny Cide will be an underlay but I think he has to be used in exotics.

I think the 2 negative 3\'s hurt EA, and even with the weight shift, I\'m not really worried about him.

I love Old Faunty here, especially at the price. I can also make a strong case for Bowmans Band at the price. My focus will be on these two.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I hear you \"MO\".

I\'m not silly enough to drop him out of the money shots. But lets assume T-Graph is right on with a negative 4, this horse has previously regressed on each of it\'s prior two isolated tops and in each case it was a 3 point regression. Doesn\'t mean its gonna happen this time, but when the race is over and done my strong suspicion is that a negative 1 would be a good result for Midway in consideration of the five point top, pace and step up in class. The question is what will a negative 1 get in regard to the money and I think it could get serious money, but I\'m doubtful it can win.

Midway came home in an extrapolated 23:3 on fifths and thats motoring. So either he was running hard or the track was very quick. I dont think the fig makers factored the track quick on the huge numbers. But that race on fractions and final time was scalding. Does anyone know if additional rain hit near racetime?



Post Edited (05-13-04 00:04)

[jwo7]

I\'m with you MO.  Old faunty-Bowmans band exacta box, and on top of all in the tri. MR is almost certain to bounce with a -1 being about the best he can hope for.  I\'m going to use him in the third spot of the tri only.
Good luck to all.

[David57]

I think EA and BB are the likeliest winners because they\'ve got the best chance of running -2. Each time EA has run a fig greater than zero, he comes back with a 2-5 point improvement, which gives him a great shot at -2 or less. Same with BB, Jerkens has figured this horse out, it looks like he\'s cycling back to -2 again.

[Mall]

I was at MR\'s last race, which I\'m pretty sure was the same stakes Mineshaft used to kick off his HOY campaign, & not only was there no additional rain, but my recollection is that it was bright & sunny when the race was run. There also wasn\'t any other speed in the small field, & I remember thinking as EA battled very gamely for the place, albeit 11 lengths back, that the horse probably thought he won the race. It also might be worth noting that both of EA\'s minus 3s were earned on AquI as a result of going wide.

[jbelfior]

Although he\'ll be a short price, DYNEVER looks best in here. I\'ve always had reservations about BB in GR 1 company...I feel he\'s a notch below...ditto FUNNY CIDE.

If EA bounces back, he\'ll be tough if the rail opens up for him turning for home.


PREAKNESS NOTE: Not sure who else out there feels this way, but I\'m hoping for a nice (not winning) race from RHT. With his size, stride, pedigree, and ability to attend a solid pace and still finish (see SA DERBY) this guy may gallop in the BELMONT.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Kingfisher]

The only question I see for RHT is whether he he can save some ground on the first turn. If Lion Heart goes into the turn a little wide, as is his usual custom, and Sir Shackleton lapped on his outside, Stevens with RHT will have a tough call coming from the 10 hole. Whether to take the 4 path on the turn or try to find a spot behind in order to save a little ground. Unless an alternative scenario sets up in which RHT challenges early in order to get no worse than 3w into the turn. This will be a great strategic race. Another problem for RHT is that Eddington will be to his inside and may have a say as to which path RHT will have to take into the first turn.



Post Edited (05-13-04 09:42)

[miff]

Kingfisher, interesting analysis, but didn\'t you forget that SJ is also expected to be prominent early?

[Kingfisher]

Oh, I certainly haven\'t forgotten Smarty. In fact, I see him saving ground behind Lion Heart and ultimately winning the race. So my call is for a SJ-RHT exacta. Not out on a huge limb, but that\'s my analysis. Hopefully Lion Heart can hang on to fill out the tri, if not maybe Imperialism, Borrego, or Eddington to pick up a piece of the tri and super.

[FORTKNOX]

Chuckles,

1.  Midway is owned by Will Farish, who loves nothing more to win at Keeneland.  Somtimes, I think he would prize a Keeland allowance winner more than a Breeder\'s Cup win.  The point is, Neil Howard points Farrish horses toward Keeneland in a big way.

2.  Sometimes when Keeneland is sloppy, the speed can run away with ridiculously fast times, which explains why Midway was sent to the front.  I don\'t recall him showing much speed before, but Farrish/Howard wanted a win and they knew what was necessary that day.

3.  In the Special, Midway won\'t have a home court advantage nor is he likely to get a slop/speed bias trip against a tougher field.

In sum, as a Keeneland local, I\'d discount Midway not because he ran a big fig but because the fig may have been earned under very favorable circumstances that are not likely to occur again.  [Except at the Fall Keeneland meet this fall :-)]

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m with you on that assessmen Fort Knox, the converse is he did run a negative 4 and came home in almost as fast as he started.  It was a big win. If you were gonna bet him, I think you\'d look for a modified pace style. If hes right out front early, I\'ll tend to be worried. He may be a horse that gets into a real efficient stride if unpressured (a la War Emblem).

I guess I\'ve finally dropped into where TGJB has been on this horse. I\'ll be betting to beat him for the win spot, but how can you not be worried with a negative four.  With Smarty I took the fastest T-Graphs...with this horse I\'m probably gonna let him beat me. But on the facts I think I have to take a shot at him. Of course, What if he\'s 6-1?   lol

CtC

[mholbert]

i think ole faunty is cross entered for saturday.  i hope he runs here.  

mike

[derby1592]

I guess I will jump on the Old Faunty bandwagon (hopefully it is only stopping off to pick up people on this board). If he enters, he sure looks live in the Special and almost has to be overlooked in the wagering given all the big-name competition. I am afraid that competition just may scare his connections away though.

Pat Day really should fit this horse and he looks to get a perfect trip.

Of course, he could run a big one and lose but at likely big odds he looks tempting.

Good luck.

Chris

P.S. It is nice to see a strong, deep field of older horses for a change.