Desormeaux

[Leamas57]

Kent might be better than Bejarano these days. Curlin sire effect took a few months to show up (Curlin seemed to really mature in the middle of the third year), but this guy will make noise next month.

Hats off to Desormeaux for a great ride.

Leamas

[FrankD.]

Bejarano couldn\'t shine Kent\'s boots EVER!!!
Really? RB is a solid jock but your comparing him to one of the top 10 all time that ever sat on a horse and that\'s drunk or sober. 7 time leading riding in Cali in the days when the best jock colony in the history of the sport was on the SoCal circuit. There were many races over a period of several years where the entire field of jocks now reside on Union Ave in Saratoga Springs.

I\'ll agree that team Desormeaux has indeed a noise maker in 4 weeks.

Good luck,

Frank D,

[miff]

Pace was fast but that was a wicked sustained run by Exaggerator/Desormeaux.Wet track specialist? if not, very dangerous.

Easily best of the preps visually and fig wise.

[ajkreider]

Time stacks up very well against the super horse earlier - both eased under the wire.  It is a bit concerning that this horse\'s best running appears to be in the slop - but good God that was a strong move.

Tampa Derby has a claim for best prep, since the also-rans in there took the Wood and Bluegrass.

Speaking of Wood, don\'t envy figure makers on that one.  Lewis Bay is a nice grade 2 filly, but she\'d be the 5th choice in the Oaks - and she went faster than the Wood winner.  Bay Shore also went faster than the Carter - so maybe the track was just slowing down.

[meatloaf]

Gave wicked sustained run on fast track in San Felipe too, just mistimed > flattened out.

[FrankD.]

I\'m not so sure that the early attempt at a 5/8 sustained run wasn\'t a training exercise off a 7f sprint comeback? You\'re talking about a couple of real sharpies here. It certainly looks like this one has one hell of a foundation as well as a very nice looking sheet heading to Louisville.

[big18741]

You might have a few point jump here to deal with.

On top of that the wet track races are significantly faster(TG #\'s) than fast track efforts going back to last year.

Two year old top and pair 5 points better on mud than fast dirt.

If the SA Derby comes back as Mike suggests than a 3pt top in the slop.

There\'s a lot to like with this horse after yesterday but also some questions as well regarding the Derby for me.

Does he get the same hot pace to run at now that they\'ve turned him into more of a closer?

Does he bounce off a few point top?

Can he run as well if the track isn\'t wet Derby Day?

[Leamas57]

Ill admit that Smith (with help from pressure by #10) set a ridiculous early pace for 9 furlongs--even for slop. They went 22.15 and then .45+ Once I saw those times, I knew the leaders were toast. It also visually flattered the run by Exaggerator.

And as we have seen, a one run strategy is dangerous in the Derby if you start too soon; then you have traffic issues, too.

I am counting on this horse adding a little more muscle and then he will need special ride in May. I am not impressed by the Vindication influence on the bottom; not sure that helps the 10 furlong effort.

He will be in my Exactas and Tris. Nice brother story with trainer/jockey story, too.

Leamas

[ajkreider]

I\'m not sure how much it flattered the effort visually.  Sure, Danzing Candy hit a wall, but Mor Spirit did not attend the pace, and from the 6f call to the mile call, Exaggerator put twelve lengths on that one - 12.

[mjellish]

You want to see an example of how sharp?  Watch the replay of Decked Out\'s last race in the China Doll before winning yesterday.  They never once asked her to run and she could have won anytime.  But that did set her up perfectly for a big effort yesterday and she won for fun.

She was bet early, and steadily too.

[ajkreider]

It looks like they wanted her to run, but she didn\'t have the room.  Squeezed through a hole late and got third.  Don\'t think they put her in that one just for an education.

[FrankD.]

MJ,

As I\'m sure you know well team D. likes to bet a dollar or two. When they left town last August after bringing Exaggerator here for the Saratoga Special they had one more suitcase than they came with.

[mjellish]

I don\'t see it that way.  She drifted out on first turn, was beginning to make a move up on backstretch when the jock stands up as if she\'s steadying. She then shifts in for the stretch run with the jock half standing in the chill position almost all the way down the lane.  There is a hole there, but she isnt asked.  And then she\'s still not asked.  But she goes through it on her own.  And then she still wasn\'t asked...

Finally, about 10 yards from the finish the jock bears down and shakes his hands and she gallops by them all, only after the wire.

Look over the pp for that field in the stakes race yesterday.  Look at the ML, and look at the final odds.  That wasnt just me betting her.

[ajkreider]

The TVG guys gave her out, including showing the replay - (which is why I took a second look, I\'m embarrassed to say, and bet her as well).  Don\'t know how much that moves the line, but if they can figure it out others can.

You guys know this business better than I, but she was 17-1 going into the China Doll, and 3-1 yesterday.  Seems like if they were setting up a big score, they missed their window.  Especially give that the pool totals were higher for the China Doll than the Providencia.

[mjellish]

The fact that she was 17-1 one race ago but 3-1 yesterday against more or less the same field sort of backs up my point that the stable was betting this one yesterday and not last month.  But I didn\'t realize the TVG guys gave her out too, so thanks for that.  Did they point out what I am saying?  

If they just said she lacked room they missed a lot, or left it out on purpose.

But make note, those connections know how to get a horse ready for a specific race, and then bet it too. I started watching after Texas Red won the BC Juv (go back and watch the replays of his earlier races by the way).  And as Frank said, there have been others since.  They probably have the 2nd or 3rd betting choice in this year\'s KY Derby.