Derby Points

[FrankD.]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-point-standings

[Michael D.]

horses taking a ton of money (1) - Nyq

horses taking serious money (6) - Gun R, Exagg, Brody, Mor Spirit, Destin, Cupid

horses taking some money ( - Outwork, Mohay, Danzing, Shagaf, Mo Tom, Whit, Suddenbreak, Sam


15 horses will take at least some action. if they all stay sound, this will be the best betting Derby I have ever seen.

[FrankD.]

Michael D.

Hope all is well buddy, good run by the CUSE to get to the final 4.

SuddenBreakingNews is going to have to run 2nd in Arkansas to even make the derby and Unbridled Cowboy is going to be quite a wild card in that race to possibly knock someone out.

The late close by Sam today heading Cherry Wine is looking like the difference in whether one is in and the other out. More of the same next week?

[Michael D.]

hey Frank. the Orange looked like a top 10 team for much of the year. wasn\'t a big surprise to me (tho a 2nd round game vs Mich St would have been very difficult).

yeah, Suddenbreak will have to get 2nd. I was thinking 25 points for 3rd, but it\'s only 20. Whitmore looks pretty safe, needing only 4th. where is Unbridled Cowboy coming from?

[FrankD.]

He ran on Rebel day and per brand R ran as fast as the Rebel winner? I haven\'t seen TG for that day yet. Another Romans wild card.

[ajkreider]

Assume you mean Unbridled Outlaw, though I can\'t see that one getting a better number than Cupid - since UO didn\'t even win on the lead.  Fourth of July looks to be the one of interest out of that race.  

30 points and some expected attrition likely gets in the Derby field.

Edit:  4th of July is a 4 year old, so the performance of Unbridled Outlaw was very solid, off a layoff, against older.  Still don\'t see the better fig to Cupid though.

[Tavasco]

AJ,

That\'s what I thought until Fairmount pointed out that 4th July born a year too early for this year\'s derby. But I want to see him run back after his last.

[FrankD.]

Thanks AJ your assumption is correct. Must have been thinking Waylon and Wille, cowboys, outlaws same bunch! LOL

[miff]

Nice system. A maiden, a poly winner and a UAE derby snail get a stall in derby and 3 faster horses will not make it.

[belmont3]

Miff,

Would you have deprived the world of Eddie the Eagle?

[ajkreider]

Two maidens perhaps.  Laoban sitting in 21st at 32 points.  A wise choice by the Ramseys and some sniffles from a couple of others and he\'s in.

Seems easily fixed. Make the conditions for the bigger preps for winners only.  I suppose one could argue that if these other faster horses can\'t finish in front of maidens . . . .

[miff]

Hope Laoban gets in, more speed to ensure honest pace. Laoban not awful considering speed was nfg at Kee on Sat(one wire by a 3-5 shot all day)Bias data comes up closers/negative speed.

Bluegrass a bit of a fraud in that horses laying 11th, 14th,12th,after the first quarter, finished 1,2,3.

[big18741]

Only possible pace unless a surprise 1-2 finisher in the Arkansas Derby with gas would be:

Outwork
Nyquist
Cupid

Danzing Candy status to be determined after take no prisoners quarter horse out of the gate strategy failed miserably.

Laoban in would help.

More closer types than any other style signed on for the race as of today.

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Laoban will need mass defections to get in. He is one of 4 with 32 points and has the least earnings of the 4. There are 17 horses above that group with 40 or more points and barring injury or sickness they all look like they will enter.

Whitmore only needs a 4th place finish in Arkansas to get to 34 points, Dazzling Gem 20 points will run next Saturday a 3rd place gets him in, SBN with a 2nd can make the field and there will be 2 well thought of wild cards in Unbridled Outlaw and American Pioneer. Mo Tom with 32 and tops in earnings of that bunch may be lucky to get in?

[ajkreider]

And not just closers but deep closers.  Whitmore looks like a stalker against this bunch.

Exaggerator/Mo Tom/My Man Sam/SBN will be 25 lengths back.