Derby Points

[RICH]

and outwork 11.0

[miff]

Rich,

Uncle Mo\'s getting hammered in the dosage formula.


Mike

[BitPlayer]

I haven\'t paid attention to dosage for quite a while, but as I understand the dosage formula, it is calculated based on the chefs-de-race in a horse\'s pedigree.  I think Alydar had not yet qualified as a chef-de-race (not enough offspring had run?) when Strike the Gold ran.  When Alydar was figured in, Strike the Gold\'s dosage dropped. I\'m guessing the Uncle Mo\'s are in a similar boat. So far, the offspring of Uncle Mo (e.g., Nyquist, Outwork, Laoban, Uncle Lino) have not seemed to underperform as distances have gotten longer.

[BH]

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/derby_dosage.htm

[Strike]

That will be a key for future dosage -- the performances of the offspring. Uncle Mo only raced 8 times but was pretty impressive. He won 5 times including the BC Juvenile at 1 1/16 miles -- his longest race win. He ran third in the Wood at 1 1/8, missed the Derby and ran 10th in the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles. He had a rare liver disease that compromised most of his third year of racing probably leading to the poorer performances. Nyquest\'s dam sire is Forestry a very good sprinter.

Can you throw out all of this \"shorter distance\" stuff like with Pharaoh and some of the others -- that obviously didn\'t work? That is the question and important one since Nyquest will be a hot favorite. He was lugging out at the end of the Wood. Was he getting tired or just shifted because the jockey was looking behind? His last eighth was pretty fast.

[johnnym]

Strike; he ran in the Fl Derby.
I am saying his bo was because the jock looked over his shoulder.
Pay attention to work out reports but that is my best educated guess.
Even though he bo and was on the wrong lead he still came home under 13 seconds for the last 1/8th.
I have watched all his races he has never bo before including the BCJ.
That to me is Nyquist key race absolute horrible trip and won,to take it further Swipe still did not pass him on the gallop out.
Funny thing is, if he would of lost the BCJ, you would of heard about all the misfortune he had in the race.
Instead we hear Dosage index,can he get the distance, who has he beet since Mohay thru in a clunker.
I would not be surprised to get 4-1 on him derby day..
Also lets see what happens Saturday

[ajkreider]

I\'m not sure how to take the \"under-perform\" issue.  Laoban was the only speed to hang in at the end, but he was never going to win that race.  It was a good effort, but we\'ve seen his limit - a mile and a 1/16.  

Uncle Lino also a good effort, but never a threat to the winner.  Should probably stick to 1 1/16 and shorter.  

Outwork held on well, but still, was pushed by a bomber maiden.  The slowest Wood ever.  There weren\'t any Destins or Brodys in there.  Again, a nice horse, but sure doesn\'t seem like a classic distance horse.

All three very nice runners.

But that leaves Nyquist . . . .

[Strike]

Johnny,

It appears you misread my post. I know what race Nyquest ran in. My Wood comment was about his sire -- Uncle Mo -- who went off at 1-10 in the Wood.

[johnnym]

\"He was lugging out at the end of the Wood. Was he getting tired or just shifted because the jockey was looking behind? His last eighth was pretty fast\"

Reads as though you are talking about Nyquist..

Ill stick with the jock shift caused the bo..

[BitPlayer]

What I meant by \"underperform\" is that their TG figures deteriorate as their races get longer.  I\'m just guessing at figures for the last two weekends (and I\'m no TGJB), but I thought all of the horses I mentioned probably roughly \"paired\" their tops when stretched out to 9 furlongs (often despite pressing or setting hot paces).

That said, 9 furlongs are not 10, and the dam side is relevant too.

[FrankD.]

The magic number to get in is on the rise, anything in the 20\'s used to be good enough.If you toss the poly and Dubai points out it\'s still a 30 something target.

Trainers who have been trending to only 2 derby preps had better have their horses primed for a top effort, there is no room for a stumble. For Kool Aide drinkers this could create an interesting dilemma? The TAP approach with Destin will be watched closely, what to do with the big top too early? IMHO I simply can\'t see a lightly raced 3 yr old giving a peak performance at 10f off 8 weeks on the bench.
We will see.

My prediction is you will see more trainers targeting 3 preps again in a more old school approach to bring them along building to the 1st Saturday in May.Brody\'s Cause is a perfect example this year. A BIG X in Tampa forced him to have to win or be 2nd in the Bluegrass to get in. Cherry Wine and My Man Sam switch who\'s in and who is out by a head.

It should be a very interesting next 3 weeks with some nice looking forward moving patterns of horses who have yet to run fast?


http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-2016-point-standings

Good luck,

Frank D.