Closers

[Gerard]

Should SBN make the field, that\'ll be a 20-25% of the field vying for last place along the backstretch. Curlin was left at the gate in his Derby after the Ark. Derby romp. Whether Exaggerator intends to or not, I wouldn\'t be surprised if he is in a similar position.

Questions. Does this make the draw less important? Could the one hole actually show a sign of life in this years edition depending on who sits there? Most importantly though, how do you handicap the confirmed closers? In their effort to take to the back, do they slow each other down even more so than usual losing all chance?  Do you look at each horse on his own merits? On paper, they seem too slow to contend, but I still like Mo Tom. I am just wondering if this scenario will compromise him even further.

[TGJB]

Or, we could look at the figures. Very few slow horses win the Derby.

[Gerard]

I will look at the figures as I always do, but the years where a lot of the preps come up slow and/or aberrational seem to be the years of the MTBs and AKs whom were both too slow coming in and not bred to win this race.

[ajkreider]

Obviously, the figs will tell whether the horse is even in the discussion.  The horse exiting the Derby with the best figure has been the winner for at least the last decade. So, pick the horse you think will run the top figure - not the one you think will get the best trip.

That said, I think the make up of this crop favors the closers more than in years past, because the field will be very strung out.  The closers don\'t necessarily want last, they want space at the rail.  And there\'s plenty of that when you\'re 20+ lengths back.  A strung out field means maybe not having to go eight wide around the last turn, or not getting stopped.  I think it also favors first run closers.  Mo Tom and SBN usually seem a bit late to the party.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Or, we could look at the figures. Very few slow
> horses win the Derby.


How did Weep No More look on figures??

Asking a question regarding a pace situation, for some reason, is usually treated with derision. Lots of races are won by horses with inferior figures, but advantageous pace situations.

[TGJB]

The Weep No Mores and Mine That Birds win by running faster than they have run before, not by race shape. Hot pace can make a front runner run slower, but nothing that happens up front can make a horse run faster than he can run.

[miff]

JB,

Agree they run faster than before but in some instances race shape/dynamics are highly favorable. It is rare that the upset winner OUTRUNS the much faster ones.

[Gerard]

Pending next Saturday\'s outcome, Exaggerator is likely the only horse who won\'t have to run faster than he has before in order to win. In any event, the question was about pace at the back of the race. Will Mo Tom be 30 lengths back or whatever, instead of 25, thus reducing his chance to run faster than he has before, thereby making an already risky play on a slower horse whose odds haven\'t drifted high enough IMO just yet.

[FrankD.]

Mo Tom and the 3 others stuck at 32 points are going to need Cupid to run 1st or 2nd to even make the derby barring mass defections of the top 17. If Cupid bounces to the moon and runs off the board there are several points scenarios where 4 horses could go by the 32\'s?

If any combination of SBN, Creator, Unbridled Outlaw & American Pioneer run 1st or 2nd, Danzing Gem needs to be 3rd or better and Whitmore only needs to run 4th.
Mo can get knocked back as far as 22nd.

[Gerard]

And then there is that.

Looking forward to the seminars comments on My Man Sam.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
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> The Weep No Mores and Mine That Birds win by
> running faster than they have run before, not by
> race shape. Hot pace can make a front runner run
> slower, but nothing that happens up front can make
> a horse run faster than he can run.
 

Point being, before the race nobody on earth could have looked at those figs and played WNM.  Looking at race shape and pace dynamics, one could make a case at those inflated odds.

EDIT: The pace makes the others run slower, agreed. The pace cannot make a horse run faster. Agreed. But favorable race shapes can make slower horses more competitive.

[Michael D.]

FrankD. Wrote:
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> Mo Tom and the 3 others stuck at 32 points are
> going to need Cupid to run 1st or 2nd to even make
> the derby barring mass defections of the top 17.
> If Cupid bounces to the moon and runs off the
> board there are several points scenarios where 4
> horses could go by the 32\'s?
>
> If any combination of SBN, Creator, Unbridled
> Outlaw & American Pioneer run 1st or 2nd, Danzing
> Gem needs to be 3rd or better and Whitmore only
> needs to run 4th.
> Mo can get knocked back as far as 22nd.


I believe the owner of the Saints owns Toms Ready (14th or so on list) and Mo Tom. if Mo is 21st, they probably pick a different spot for TR.

[big18741]

Dallas Stewart\'s head would explode.

[Holybull1]

That question was addressed on Twitter and GMB said \"ZERO CHANCE\" they declare Tom\'s Ready to let Mo Tom in.