Ark Derby

[Gerard]

A little work to do for Cupid



Arkansas Derby (GI)

1. Discreetness 20-1

2. Cutacorner 50-1

3. Creator 10-1

4. Suddenbreakingnews 5-1

5. American Pioneer 8-1

6. Unbridled Outlaw 10-1

7. Dazzling Gem 12-1

8. Whitmore 9-2

9. Luna de Loco 30-1

10. Cupid 2-1

11. Gray Sky 30-1

12. Gettysburg 6-1

[jbelfior]

.......and there will be weeping and gnashing of teeth among the followers of ........Mo Tom.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Gerard]

Not sure about other fans, but I\'ll be very happy if this decision is made for me. I have no teeth left to gnash and no tears in the well due to poor wagers on slow and troubled horses.

[johnnym]

Routing for SBN..

[P-Dub]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Routing for SBN..

Correct.  Its a 1 1/8 race.

[johnnym]

LOL, should of used, Rooting for SBN..

[Tavasco]

Hot Springs Weather Forecast
Thursday
Partly sunny with a 97% chance of rain. High temp around 73

Friday
Cloudy all day with a 33% chance of rain. High temp around 71

Saturday
Partly sunny with a 10% chance of rain. High temp around 71

After all the terrible weather and flooding in Arkansas, La, & Texas for the past week, it looks like they\'ll get the race in without umbrellas. I wonder about the track condition coming at the end of a long day of racing.

The maintenance crews work wonders in most cases but occasionally screw the pooch. I am reminded of watching the Travers Stakes last year. Prices and NYRA revenue streams  were the subject of the meet early.  Before the race the water trucks were out and some rocket scientist sold advertising space on the truck to Coors. My wife asked why they were pouring beer on the track? Then again she is not a fan now that there are no female Jockeys in T.V. races.

I\'m expecting the track to be odd and probably slow like all of last weeks preps. That will be fitting as it makes all the last round of preps performance #\'s earned under other than fast and dry conditions. On one hand comparing integers is simple enough. On the other hand we can kibbitz the last race #\'s for weeks.

But seriously will the Arkansas Derby have any effect on the Kentucky Derby. If Cupid impresses again then he is in the mix. If he flops then there should be a secondary market where his points could be sold. Whitmore should get it and the Pioneer or Outlaw would have to run 1st or 2nd to upset the apple cart. Suddenbreakingnews hmm, track conditions often cause surprising results. I think that will be Saturday\'s puzzle.

[boardedup]

I wonder if Whitmore will be primed to run a big one?  He gets in by finishing anywhere in the super.  I feel like he my not be asked for it all being only 3 weeks out and distance concerns..but if he is, I think he puts it all together.  

 I think he drifts up from 9/2 as well, like 7/1 post time?  I expect the inside horse and the Roman\'s to take a lot of action, and the TAP to certainly be shorter at post saturday.

[billk5300s]

I don\'t know if anyone else will agree with me but I cannot get a handle on the surface at Oaklawn.  It seems biased to close up and inside and wide mid-stretch appears to be brutal.  Even with this observation I really struggle there.

[jbelfior]

Check the charts of past runnings on Equibase. I think you\'ll agree that on the lead or close up trumps post position draw. Nine winners in last 15 years drew 8 and out.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[FrankD.]

A very interesting race as we insert the final pieces of this years derby puzzle.

If Cupid wins he will be a solid 2nd choice to Nyquist on May 7th. That\'s a good thing for Exaggerator fans:) I could see something like 7/2 on Nyquist, 9/2 on Cupid with Ex, Brody & Gun Runner all landing in the 7-10/1 range with Mohaymen and Moi Spirit right behind them.

If Cupid X\'s which IMHO has a good chance to do today, although those questioning his TG fig may find it hard to X off of? Exaggerator becomes the 2nd choice probably 5/1 ish. A Whitmore win as he seems to be the wise guy horse de jour would put him in the Brody, Gun Runner mix.

Romans has laid down the gaulent on the Outlaw he is going, Gettysburg has no other choice from the 12 hole. Can Cupid rate and work out a non 3W trip carrying 7 more lbs.? Is he the Baffert freak this year who will just outrun them all regardless?

I\'m taking a stand against Cupid caving to inside and outside pace pressure. I think the Outlaw has a big run in him today and with TGJB and mjellish both hinting of a forward move for Dazzling Gem I\'m sure he will get a bit more play vertically then he would have. In addition the fact that Brad Cox is on fire this year, when did he become a stakes trainer?

I\'ll make a 3 horse exacta and tri box with Outlaw, Whitmore and Gem pressing the Outlaw & Whitmore box. For tri\'s and supers I\'ll key my top 3 1st and 2nd using Pioneer, SBN and Cupid underneath.

Why the racing office did not make an all stakes pick 4 today is a very good question? Every big race Saturday across the country the all stakes guaranteed pool pick 4\'s create a big handle.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[mjellish]

Just sat down with a cup of coffee, pull up the TG board and see Frank D just called my KY Derby future bet this year\'s \"Wise Guy\" colt, which is sorta like giving him the kiss of death.  

Why you gotta Mush me like that Frank?

[FrankD.]

MJ,

Didn\'t you hear Eddie Mush died a couple of years ago. Miff found him by a Bowery burn barrel.

May the racing Gods shine upon you.

[miff]

Frank,

Shame about Eddie Mush,autopsy showed he overdosed on Kool Aid, was a Raggie. RIP Eddie.

Re Cupid,there is concern about his gate abilities.They have been trying to get him squared better in there to avoid his tendency to be OP.Think his race will be determined at the break.

Good luck

Mike

[mjellish]

I\'m curious to see how Melatonin runs today.  He looks like a new horse since they started running him long around 2 turns.  Price should be fair too.