MO/MOR/DC

[johnnym]

Agree if you like Brody how can you not like MMS?

[toppled]

I see gradual improvement with MMS, who I bet on in the Bluegrass.  I just don\'t see him getting up to the 0-1 range needed in this race.  Can he win? With this slow field many can win.  I just like a horse who ran fast as a 2YO and just paired his 2YO top and is a 2 time grade 1 stakes winner better than the one who is eligible for a NW1x, hasn\'t beaten anyone of consequence, and doesn\'t have the #s to expect a 3 point jump up.

[mjellish]

Have to say that I agree with this statement.  Brody had some trouble on the first turn and it was bad enough to cause some horses to melt down.  But he recovered, listened to his jock, weaved in and out of traffic when asked, waited, quickened when asked, took the lead and was waiting for his jockey to tell him to do more at the end of that race.  Race wasn\'t especially fast but the figure doesn\'t tell the whole story IMO.  This is a colt with the right mind to handle the stress of a 20 horse field.  But he would have to move forward to win so I would want to see him continue to train forwardly.

[KeithB]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Looking back through the archives, it\'s very hard
> to make a case for those three.  I\'ll have Another
> was the only horse I could find that ran their top
> figure at 1 1/16 and hit the board in the Derby.
> I did not include those that paired and granted I
> only looked back 10 years.  Maybe it\'s the
> backward move, maybe they were better at short
> distances, but there\'s usually a few like these
> every year that take money and finish up the
> track.
>  
> 2015 - Bolo, Itsaknockout
> 2014 - General A Rod, Intenseholiday, Candy Boy
> 2013 - Itsmyluckyday, Java\'s War
> 2012 - Creative Cause, Hansen, Alpha
> 2011 - Santiva, Soldat, Stay Thirsty
> 2010 - Lookin at Lucky, Noble Promise, Conveyance,
> Backtalk
> 2009 - Chocolate Candy, Join in the Dance
>
> You get the idea. It doesn\'t look good for
> Mohaymen, Mor Spirit, or DC!

Going back a few years more Bluegrass Cat 2nd in 2006 was the only other horse
I found that went backward at 9F from its 8.5f race top.Of the 3 Mor Spirit is the one I see that could possibly get back to their top two races back.I\'d be more forgiving for him because of two things (1) His connections (2) Off Track in last race.

[jerry]

That\'s the question I have. How many Derby winners backed up badly in their final prep? To me, that\'s a bad line.

[Gerard]

That was essentially the point of the post. 3 tri spots out of 48. Monarchos the sole winner. But simply tossing them means tossing 3 of the 4 or 5 fastest in the race. I haven\'t looked at the numbers there, but I\'m pretty certain that\'s not pretty for the discretionary funds account. If I get some time later, I\'ll take a look.

[Old Mr. Boston]

While Monarchos did back up in the Wood, it\'s important to remember that after his tremendous run in the Florida Derby, Trainer John Ward said publicly before the Wood that Monarchos wouldn\'t be fully cranked for the race and that winning wasn\'t the goal. Given that his trainer made these statements pre-race, I would tend to discount the fact that Monarchos backed up in his last prep....a point I should have considered on Derby Day when I could have cashed a nice ticket at 10-1.

[toppled]

My over-analysis mode has reached the wet track phase. In one of my trials I took the Sire\'s TGI for wet & dry tracks and compared the difference.

Mor Spirit had the worst difference: 8 points slower on wet than fast.  The only thing that is surprising is that Eskendereya\'s TGI on a dry track is the fastest in the race which may be skewing things.  However, if the difference reflects Mor Spirit\'s lack of ability to handle a wet track, there is cause to forgive his # in the SA Derby.  

3rd worst was Danzing Candy at 5.25 points.  His bad performance may also need forgiveness. However, the fact he ran fast only once and then bounced like a super ball has me inclined to just toss him because either his San Felipe was an aberration or was a knockout performance which may take him months to recover from.

[jett]

Thunder Gulch backed up in his last prep the 1995 Bluegrass Stakes. I think back then it was called \"the spring pattern\" Two good races followed by an off race/bounce.--Jett

[ringato3]

Toppled,

Those aren\'t the only 2 possibilities, the San Felipe being an aberration, or it causing him to bounce like a rubber ball.

The other option, as you point out in the post and then discount it, is that he didn\'t like the wet track.   Combined with a ridiculous runaway pace he set (caused by hating track?), he had every reason to run a bad race (without it being a form bounce)

Met a guy named Julian at a TG seminar years some time back (that he was leading).   He said a knock like the one u and others point out with Danzig candy is a dealbreaker on a 2-1 favorite.    While on a 20-1 shot, it is acceptable risk.  

It has been years since that day and I am likely paraphrasing not completely correctly.  That said, I laugh when I read posters saying they are \"tossing Danzig Candy\" as if tossing a 20-1 shot takes some huge modicum of courage.   Tell me why u are tossing Nyquist.   That may provide value...

Rob

[boston]

Danzing Candy is 40 to 1 offshore.  He is one the top 5 fastest horses.  Those two statements make him value.

I may lose but I will not feel bad.

[NormandyInvasion]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toppled,
>
> Those aren\'t the only 2 possibilities, the San
> Felipe being an aberration, or it causing him to
> bounce like a rubber ball.
>
> The other option, as you point out in the post and
> then discount it, is that he didn\'t like the wet
> track.   Combined with a ridiculous runaway pace
> he set (caused by hating track?), he had every
> reason to run a bad race (without it being a form
> bounce)

I was there for the race and beforehand, the discussion was about Danzing Candy\'s  behavior in his paddock schooling being like none we\'d seen before (this was done the previous morning).  He had his ears flat back the entire time.  I stress flat back and the entire time.  He was clearly not at all a happy camper.  So what happens the next afternoon?  He\'s a rank runaway.  Maybe he had too much pent-up energy and needed a blowout.

With the Derby horses looked at through a microscope, we have a chance to know everything about the horses like no other race, and I plan to keep an ear out for Danzing\'s demeanor leading up to the race.  Happy and relaxed, I\'m betting on him.  If not, I\'m not.

[Leamas57]

Speaking of which, I love to hear what the horse-whisperer says every year. He makes it seem like science and maybe Jerry will find a notation to add to the figs that tells you the horse is a strong herd runner (my tongue is in my cheek).

But I do want to know. There has to be a mystical element wherever luck is involved--or at least invoked. One of my favorite stories is The Rocking Horse Winner, by D.H. Lawrence. This was made into a movie, by the way, and it  starred some famous people. But most of you should know that...

Leamas

[jerry]

I don\'t remember Monarchos\' figure being all that bad. He regressed some but not horrifically. Invisible Ink came in off of an 02X pattern. Not usually a good pattern for young 3yos. but he finished a good 2nd at long odds.

[jerry]

Nyquist wobbled home like a drunk sailor. That\'s reason enough for me.