Derby Bomber

[miff]

Hi Frank,

Need your expertise on Derby Day weather, loons already predicting rain, which would be a huge factor.

If wet. Did Mohaymen hate slop so much, you must toss? Did Exaggerator love it so much he\'s a stand alone? Did Shagaf hate slop also, must toss? Did Mor Spirit slide all over as Stevens said,toss?

Mike

[FrankD.]

Mike,

Said it here many times about long range forecasts, they are as good a bet as a derby future! 72 hours out I\'ll look but this is one day you won\'t need me, the whole civilized world will know the derby day weather.

The last derby single for me was Big Brown, last year only used 2 on top 75% AP & 25% Dortmond. Exaggerator just due to running style could never be a single for me in a 20 horse field but he would get 75% or so on top in the slop.

Mohaymen & Mor Spirit are not auto tosses, neither are bred horribly for the off and Mor Spirit\'s slop race at CD last year he had the lead in the stretch before quitting after running a 1 in his 2nd start 5 weeks earlier. A Kool Aide knock out 2 yr old number.

[jbelfior]

I subscribe to the premium site at Weatherbell. Impossible to predict long-range precip and where/when it\'s going to fall on that day. What they\'re pretty sure of is that it will not be warm. Looks like highs in the 60\'s.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Topcat]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I subscribe to the premium site at Weatherbell.
> Impossible to predict long-range precip and
> where/when it\'s going to fall on that day. What
> they\'re pretty sure of is that it will not be
> warm. Looks like highs in the 60\'s.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.


That\'s a blessing.  Sounds like Funny Cide weather, which with the sustained breeze, was a delight.   That\'s a long day on-site, when it\'s warmish or worse.

[BitPlayer]

I\'m wondering if Exaggerator could actually end up being favored over Nyquist if the track comes up wet.

[jbelfior]

He should be favored over him anyway. Now he\'s faster.


Good luck,
Joe B.

[Fairmount1]

Undefeated Juvenile Champion.

Beat Exaggerator head to head earlier in the year at 7f in 1:20.71.

Beat Mohaymen in Florida Derby.

Trainer/Jockey/Owner previously won the Derby.

Exaggerator will not be more heavily bet than Nyquist even if poor weather imo.

[big18741]

I guess I was looking for more reasons to dislike Shagaf.

Last night I even put him in with the group of slow horses(5 or worse) going into the Derby even though his debut was a 3.Caught that mistake this morning.

Clearly it\'s only 3 preps with the debut in November.