Wynn odds

[TempletonPeck]

The fine people at Wynn have futures lines up, which I share here (as you\'ll see, some are more and less relevant, but I include all just FYI). Apologies for the formatting, but the first line was what they posted April 22, and the second is what they have posted as of today (they moved this morning).

--------------------4/22-----4/26

Adventist           40/1     40/1
Brody\'s Cause       12/1     10/1
Cherry Wine         30/1     28/1
Creator             15/1     15/1
Danzing candy       30/1     28/1
Destin              22/1     22/1
Discreetness        100/1    100/1
Exaggerator         9/1      8/1
Fellwoship          35/1     35/1
Gun Runner          12/1     10/1
Lani                20/1     20/1
Laoban              40/1     45/1
Majesto             25/1     25/1
Mo Tom              25/1     25/1
Mohaymen            10/1     8/1
Mor Spirit          12/1     10/1
My Man Sam          18/1     18/1
Nyquist             4/1      7/2
Oscar Nominated     50/1     55/1
Outwork             14/1     14/1
Shagaf              25/1     22/1
SuddenBreakingNews  20/1     20/1
Tom\'s Ready         60/1     50/1
Trojan Nation       60/1     40/1
Whitmore            30/1     30/1

Price on Whitmore seems fairly generous to me, comparing his sheet/price to Creator\'s.

[pizzalove]

I can guarantee Nyquist will be lower than 7/2 by race time.  5/2 at most which will push up many odds.

[ringato3]

Pizza

That is a horrible guarantee.

Whether u are right or wrong, saying that is a guarantee is silly (nice word inserted )

7/2 is about right.  Have yet to meet a person considered a \"shrewd handicapper\" (self professed or otherwise) that likes Nyquist

Doesn\'t mean he can\'t win by open lengths.  But when every wise guy hates a horse, he ain\'t going off shorter than 7/2 in a 20 horse field

Rob

[johnnym]

I\'m saying he is 4-1

[justwin]

fastest horse at 22/1. seems like a huge overlay. race shape helps too. Pletcher not so bad lately. both danza and materiality ran well in the recent derbies.

[TempletonPeck]

I tend to agree, with the possible exception being that he has a well-publicized incredible workout, along the lines of Orb\'s, on Friday...

For comparison\'s sake, fav/2nd choice in the last few years (2nd included just for some frame of reference):

2015: AP final odds 2.9/1, Dortmund 4.3/1
2014: Chrome 2.5/1, Wicked Strong 6.5/1
2013: Orb 5.4/1, Revolutionary 6.4/1
2012: Bodemeister 4.2/1, Union Rags 5.1/1
2011: Dialed in 5/1, Pants on Fire 8/1
2010: Lookin at Lucky 6.3/1, Super Saver 8/1
2009: Friesan Fire 3.8/1, Dunkirk 5.2/1
2008: Big Brown 2.4/1, Colonel John 4.7/1

I went back to Big Brown just to get another 5/2 horse in there. Obviously it isn\'t unheard of to get a 5/2 favorite in the Derby, but it takes some doing.

[Fairmount1]

Since 2000 (16 Derby\'s), here are your favorites by odds (excuse any typos as I tried to post this in a timely fashion).  I have also posted the favorite\'s best Beyer Speed Figure pre-Derby which I believe has a certain correlation with Derby Odds.  All of the pre-Derby lifetime (to that point) best BSF\'s for the horses listed (sans Harlan\'s Holiday which I\'m working on obtaining) were at a route.  Nyquist\'s best BSF is a 100 at 7 furlongs while his Fla Derby performance earned a 94.  

Less than 2-1:  1 (Point Given, 1.80, 110)
2-1:  2 (FuPeg, 2.30, 111 BB, 2.40 106)
5-2:  4 (Empire Maker 2.50, 111 Chrome, 2.50, 108 Bellamy Road 2.60, 120 AP, 2.90 105)
3-1:  NONE
7-2:  1 (Friesen Fire, 3.80 104)
4-1:  2 (Smarty, 4.10, 108 Bode, 4.20 108)
9-2:  1 (Street Sense, 4.90 108)
5-1:  3 (Dialed In, 5.20, 97* Orb, 5.40, 97 Sweetnorthernsaint, 5.50 109)
6-1:  2 (Harlan\'s Holiday**, 6.00, Lookin at Lucky, 6.30 98)

So, 7 of favs below 3-1 (4 for 7 record) and 9 of favs above 3-1 (3 for 9 record).  
Mean:  3.90
Median:  3.95

Street Sense and AP the only Juvenile Champions in that time period to be favored.
Big Brown and Smarty Jones only undefeated horses in that time to be favored.
*BSF was earned in a one turn mile for Dialed In.
**Harlan\'s Holiday--unable to find his BSF.  If anyone has it, please post.  He won the Florida Derby and Bluegrass.  (I think it was around 104 for Bluegrass but not certain whatsoever).

I will grant you that taking speed figures out of the context of the body of the field is very dangerous territory.  However, all of the horses favored below 5-1 to had a lifetime pre-Derby route best of at least 104.    Notice that the 97 of DI, Orb, and 98 of Lookin At Lucky are close to Nyquist\'s 100 at 7 furlongs and still higher than his Fla Derby 94.Nyquist is your favorite but \"5-2 at most\" as you say seems very, very unlikely to me when Exaggerator and Destin have triple digit Beyers.  

If there are any errors, please let me know.  Thanks.

[Flighted Iron]

If by open lengths you mean 2 or more I\'ll gamble he doesn\'t. My cash vs yours.

[pizzalove]

You are probably right and I shouldn\'t of \"guaranteed\" anything but here is my logic.  I understand there are many shrewd handicappers that would put Nyquist at 4-1 or higher.  But Derby day brings out more non-shrewd handicappers than any other time of the year.  Here is what brings him down to 5-2 or less.

1.  Undefeated.
2.  Won last million dollar race convincingly.
3.  When everyone is predicting there will be no pace that favors Nyquist big time.  
4.  The favorite has won the last three years in a row.  
5.  Has beaten the number 2 choice convincingly off of three and a half months rest.  

You don\'t need to point out all the reasons to bet against Nyquist.  I agree and am not putting him in first or second on any of my tickets.  I just feel the crowd and glut of betters will be all over him.

[miff]

Would take over 5-2 all day.Not nearly enough Nyquist buzz, in fact, none at all.Everybody,so to speak, hates him.

[ajkreider]

He is one of several I don\'t want to play but have to.  Destin is another if over 20-1, with the top fig going in.  DC is another with the front end speed and that fig.  All of the closers have a shot to get in the tri. To say nothing of the likely other likely favs. Hell, Lani has a right to improve off that number and get in the mix as a stalker.

This race better pay, because the ticket is starting to look very expensive.

[ringato3]

Yes AJ,

Lani has a shot for 17th place instead of 20th.  It may only take one or two scratches for him to finish there.

What figures are the people who are talking about Lani looking at?  (besides the fact that they are ignoring 20 years of Dubai to Churchill history and the fact that the horse isn\'t working right and may scratch anyway.

Rob

[johnnym]

Hope he doesn\'t get the 1 hole,then one horse takes two instant tosses.
Is that asking for to much??

[Strike]

I haven\'t see the numbers yet but Majesto has caught my eye. Tisnow/Unaccounted For. Should be no issue with the distance. Appears to be getting better and fast. Not a deep closer -- should be well positioned. Probably 25-30/1. I am not a big \"gallop out\" fan but brother did he ever gallop out past Nyquist who was not pulled up. He will be in my bets for sure.

[ajkreider]

Well, since you ask, his last was at least as good as the last for

Mohaymen
Gun Runner
Mo Tom
Danzing Candy

All of whom figure to be much shorter odds.  His last is all of 2 points worse than that of the likely derby favorite.  The only other number we have for him is on a muddy track that isn\'t in the TG wheelhouse.  So, do I think Lani could jump up to a 2, and thus hit the board with a stalking trip in this field?  Yeah, I think that could happen. I won\'t be betting that to happen (because of the Dubai shipping angle), but it could happen.