Danza jumped 3.75 points off his 2yo top 1 race after a forgivable 1st race off a layoff. Destin was a 7.75 point jump-up. 2 years ago in a Derby with lots of jump-ups going in, I looked at the archives & at the time, and saw some pretty bad results for the big jump ups. Here\'s an update including results from the last 2 Derbies:
I used a 4.0 jump-up, which is a lot closer to the 3 jump ups going back to 1997 where all horses are available to review. In some years there were no big jumps, while some years yielded multiple leaps.
Overall there have been 26 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep. 2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump. That is unlike 2014\'s jumpers who were topping over 6 before their last big races. The other was Charismatic in 1999. As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point. None of the other 23 hit the board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the super. Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby. Overall 24 of 26 regressed, the 7 six points or over regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 7, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. This year only Destin has the big jump up of over 4 points off his prior top, although Lani did jump 4.5 points but I only have data on 2 of his races:
2015
17th,5.25,16
2014
4th,7.75,2.5
6th,6,1.75
8th, 7,4.25
(none the years 2011-2013)
2010
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.75,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25
2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50
2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50
2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00
2004
14th,4.75,7.25
2003
14th,6.00,9.75
2002
14th,4.00,7.00
2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75
1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50
1998
11th,5.25,14.00
