Mor Spirit

[sekrah]

Mor Spirit has moved to the top of my list this week. I still like a few others like Whitmore and I give Candy a shot to steal it on the front end, but Mor Spirit will likely be my key on Saturday, pending the PP draw.

It\'s not the pristine Derby pattern that one likes to see, but:

1) The horse has proven to be fast enough to win this race twice already.
2) Legit surface excuses in the SA Derby, and he still out-ran all the others that were near the lead.
3) He\'s training super-well and is gliding over the track. Loved his works.
4) Baffert is no stooge.  His bullets fire in the Derby more than any other trainer ever.

[paniolo]

Mor Spirit = Think Real Quiet

[TGJB]

I go into this \"bragging rights\" thing in the seminar. If you get ego invested you make bad decisions. There are races to bet all day.

[sekrah]

The horse I think of when I see Mor Spirit is Jackson Bend.

Huge 2yo figure, seemed to be heading into the Derby okay, and just did not take to the slop at all.  Came back two weeks later and fired a monster in the Preakness over a fast track.

I think Mor Spirit is right there, but a race sooner, and his pedigree is much stronger than JB\'s was and overall a better looking horse.

[boston]

Just listened to Welsch on Steve Byk radio show.  He does not think that Mor Spirit has settled and has been very hard to handle in Kentucky.  Much like Mohaymen but to a lesser extent.

[bellsbendboy]

SEK,

No argument with 1,2 and 4, but cannot comprehend that Mor Spirit is \"training well\".  Work prior to shipping he was under the stick, then was very rank and ran off with the boy and in his last would not go by a maiden who he had pinned on the rail? bbb

[sekrah]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0-PixcjEz3Q

From a very good clocker, Gary Young, who has seen Mor Spirit work many times in Southern Cal: \"It was a far above average work for this horse.\"

[ajkreider]

Oh the irony in that comparison.  JB was a fine horse who ran into an absolute buzz saw on the derby trail - beaten 10 lengths in consecutive preps by . . . the sire of Mor Spirit.

[jbelfior]

For a horse that doesn\'t like a wet track, he sure ran well on it at Churchill in November.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[TGJB]

Dead wrong. Completely, 180 degrees, wrong. Per figures, Baffert, everyone but you.

[Kasept]

No dime supers.. $1 minumum.

[kevb]

Even without dime supers the servers at Twinspires and Xpressbet slow to a crawl about 5-10 minutes before post. I assume dime supers would just about bring it all to a complete standstill on Derby day.

[jbelfior]

Jerry:
Before you tell someone they\'re \"dead wrong\" you should watch the race.  

You know what they say.....there\'s lies, damn lies, quotes from trainers, and peformance numbers on tiring wet tracks.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

I watched the race, which is irrelevant. Baffert watched the race, which is not. I made a figure. Whatever that horse may do on an off track in the future-- and both times he was coming off a top-- he ran poorly that day.

[SoCalMan2]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For a horse that doesn\'t like a wet track, he sure
> ran well on it at Churchill in November.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

If you are right, then, arguendo, the number given for that effort is wrong.  To correct the number for what you are saying, you would need to take 3 or so points off the number.  However, if you do that, then you need to do the same to Gun Runner and Mo Tom.  The good news for you is that if you make adjustments based on those visual observations, you will be finding horses like Gun Runner and Mo Tom to be having a much better chance of outrunning their odds and making them bettable (unless of course on the basis of that adjustment you decided that Mo Tom and Gun Runner are mud specialists as that Churchill number would now be the lifetime top for both of them (but that is not the case for Mor Spirit who will still have two better tops on dry tracks even if you correct the Churchill number by the same adjustment)).  This is why they run horseraces.  If Mor Spirit wins on Saturday and then it rains at the Preakness, it will be a very interesting debate.