Danzing Candy Post 20

[mjellish]

Nyquist has never had dirt kicked back in his face.  Watch all his replays if needed. He will run however he needs to run to make sure that doesnt happen here.  He\'s too competitive not to.  iMO.

[jerry]

I heard Danzing Candy sort of lost it in the paddock SA Derby Day and that\'s why he ran off those crazy fractions. If his demeanor was due to the crowd at SA, what will he be like on Derby Day?

[Gerard]

Deja vu all over again.

Not so good memories of Sidney\'s Candy blowing up from the 20 hole in 2010.

[sekrah]

I can\'t help stop looking at what a dream draw Gun Runner got.  

Hey Jerry, are you still willing to offer me your even-money \"Who will be 1w on the first turn?\" proposition that you offered me a few years ago with Super Saver?

He\'s got nearly an identical pattern to Brilliant Speed coming in, who ran a 3w5w and finished 5 1/2 lengths back of Animal Kingdom.  A new top with a 1w1w probably gets a piece. But it\'s too bad he won\'t have a Brilliant Speed price.

[boardedup]

agree he\'s likely to improve, but ~4.5ish pts to matter?  That\'s asking a lot

[sekrah]

A 3 pt move and a rail trip probably gets him into the Super. A 4 1/2 pt move  might win it.  But it sucks because this is a horse that probably should/could have been at least 25 or 30 to 1 if he had taken a harder path coming in.  

He\'s a horse that is going to make my horizontal tickets more expensive without really adding anything massive to the potential payout.  He\'s Golden Soul at 1/3rd the price.

[TempletonPeck]

Needing a 3-4 point move up, he will not make any of my tickets more expensive :-O

[sekrah]

Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for tossing slower horses at shitty prices, but that pattern is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has shown he\'s very comfortable running on the inside and getting dirt kicked in his face.  Outside of a disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to be in a dream spot.  The last time I was this confident a dream trip for a horse, it was Super Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of him.

Very, very annoying horse for me.

[TempletonPeck]

Oh yeah, don\'t get me wrong, I agree on his pattern, and I wish he had drawn the 20 and Danzing Candy the 5. I just don\'t think that 10/1 is a fair proposition.

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for tossing
> slower horses at shitty prices, but that pattern
> is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has
> shown he\'s very comfortable running on the inside
> and getting dirt kicked in his face.  Outside of a
> disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to be
> in a dream spot.  The last time I was this
> confident a dream trip for a horse, it was Super
> Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of
> him.
>
> Very, very annoying horse for me.

[P-Dub]

TempletonPeck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh yeah, don\'t get me wrong, I agree on his
> pattern, and I wish he had drawn the 20 and
> Danzing Candy the 5. I just don\'t think that 10/1
> is a fair proposition.
>
> sekrah Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Best of luck and I can\'t blame anyone for
> tossing
> > slower horses at shitty prices, but that
> pattern
> > is spring loaded and ready to burst, and he has
> > shown he\'s very comfortable running on the
> inside
> > and getting dirt kicked in his face.  Outside of
> a
> > disaster coming out of the gate, he\'s going to
> be
> > in a dream spot.  The last time I was this
> > confident a dream trip for a horse, it was
> Super
> > Saver, with all the speed on the far outside of
> > him.
> >
> > Very, very annoying horse for me.

10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.

[TGJB]

Sek-- that\'s the situation with Nyquist as well. Unless he ends up outside by intent (human or equine, as MJ suggests), he\'s getting the same or similar trip as Gun Runner, who is the only one inside him with any speed at all.

[sekrah]

I would be much less confident of Nyquist finding that spot.  Tom\'s Ready, Destin, and possibly even Whitmore with Victor on board will be horses that Nyquist will have to clear.  I could even see Kent on Exaggerator wanting to be closer to the front like he was in the San Vincente.

Trojan, SBN, Creator, Mo Tom are stone cold Sustained Zeros.

I\'d put Gun Runner 1w going into the turn at like 80%+.  

Nyquist?  

1w = 10%
2w = 30%
3w = 35%
4w = 20%
5w = 5%

[TempletonPeck]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> 10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.

Of course it doesn\'t, but he\'s 12/1 offshore and around L.V., so I think it\'s pretty safe to guess that he won\'t be 20/1.

[P-Dub]

TempletonPeck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> >
> > 10/1 ML doesn\'t mean he doesn\'t go off longer.
>
> Of course it doesn\'t, but he\'s 12/1 offshore and
> around L.V., so I think it\'s pretty safe to guess
> that he won\'t be 20/1.


So 20/1 is the minimum required to bet this horse? If you like him and he\'s around 15/1, don\'t know why that wouldn\'t be good enough if you like him.

[TempletonPeck]

P-Dub Wrote:
>
> So 20/1 is the minimum required to bet this horse?
> If you like him and he\'s around 15/1, don\'t know
> why that wouldn\'t be good enough if you like him.

I didn\'t say that, I was just saying that as a guy estimating the off-odds, the evidence to me suggests that you may get 12-15, but not likely 20.

For any horse, there\'s an intersection of chance to win the race/fair odds. If a horse has a 10% chance to win the race, then 9/1 is the breakeven price. So for this horse, if you think he has more than a 1/16 chance to win the race, then yeah, 15/1 is a fair price, but if you think he\'s only got a 1/21 chance to win the race, then you need 20/1.