Derby Betting Strat

[boardedup]

Without getting into specific horse\'s or plays for Saturday, I\'m curious as to what betting strat\'s people have found to be superior from an ROI point of view in a 20 horse field?

Is there anything you do different for the sports biggest day or is it \"just another race?\"

[TempletonPeck]

Bet more.

Seriously, the pools are as big and as soft as it gets in racing in this country, so bet more.

[johnnym]

By no means am I whale,but this race is my biggest wager of the year in any sport.
I probably get a bit greedy but I go heavy on the tri wheeling my A horse with my B and C horses.
I also go after the Super with the same strategy..
Strongly suggest you have a plan B as well just in case if your A horse runs his race in the paddock or the last minute downpour..
Good Luck..
John

[Old Mr. Boston]

Have to disagree with making this your biggest bet of the year. Yes, pools are huge and soft, but with a 20 horse field there are to many variables to over invest (IMO), especially when you consider there are many better opportunities everyday. For me, picking the Derby winner is more an exercise for bragging rights than the best bet of the year....Ken

[sekrah]

I\'m with those saying the Ky Derby is the one race you want to play EVERY YEAR.

There\'s always tons of dead money in this race and very easily identifiable overlays and underlays. If you\'re a competent handicapper this is the biggest opportunity of the year to make a major score.

[TempletonPeck]

If we agree that the pools are the biggest and the softest, then there are not ever any better opportunities, never mind everyday (for horse races, in North America).

When you say \"too many variables\" what you\'re basically describing is variance, which is a good reason to play within your bankroll, but not a good reason to take anything less than the biggest swing you/your bankroll can  afford to take.

Also, remember that as your EV increases, your risk of ruin decreases. In other words, the more that you have the best of it, the more you can/should bet.

[jerry]

Racing luck is a huge factor. Add to that this year\'s faster horses are coming in off of regressions and only 2 are single digit odds, one of which is a TG toss. Big boxes work for me. Back up the truck and enjoy the race!

[boardedup]

This is the crux of what i was getting at.  Is there anything specific in a 20 horse field and a ton of dead money floating through the windows that you can do to increase EV that may otherwise not present it\'s self?

[TGJB]

A 3 horse box in a 10 horse field = a 6 horse box in a 20 horse field.

[analizethis]

Not exactly.

That\'s close in an exacta box.

Number of exacta combinations in a 10 horse field = 10 * 9 = 90. A three horse box gets you 6 or 6.667%.

In a 20 horse field there are = 20 * 19 = 380 combinations and a six horse box gets you 30 or 7.9% of the combinations. The actual answer would be a 5 over 6 play for 25 combinations or 6.6%.

In a tri the numbers move more dramatically; a 3 horse box gets you 6/720 or .83%. In a 20 horse field (20 * 19 * 18 = 6,840) you do not need a six horse box (6 * 5 * 4 = 120) but 57 combinations which is about a 4 over 4 over 7 = 60.

[jerry]

Are they offering .50 tris?