Tavasco,
Thanks so much for the nice message.
The slings and arrows, particularly last year on my AP comments throughout the Triple Crown season, are a part of why I haven\'t posted as much this Derby season but honestly, the much bigger issue is that I am not at Churchill this year so I don\'t have any real insight to add. Was just too busy with work to get there this year.
I have watched the videos of all the works very closely and I did try to buy a few of these animals along the way so I feel like I have some insight but there\'s no replacement for seeing them live and in person.
The other complicating factor is that one of my good friends and my partner on a bunch of horses owns both My Man Sam and Exaggerator so I am definitely clouded with my positive bias for those 2.
My bet will focus around those 2 as well as Creator and Outwork.
I think Outwork has looked the best of all of the horses from the videos but again, that\'s just from the TV and not watching them come on and off the track and seeing how they act when they first come out of their stall, etc (sore horses tell you how they are feeling in their first few steps out of the stall everyday).
Obviously Outwork is competitive on the TGs, he is training very well, I think he will sit a comfortable stalking trip and I love the fact that he is a very large horse who is less likely to lose the race because he gets pushed around at the break. He\'s a very very big long striding horse that will need to be in the clear to run his race but that\'s how I see it playing out. I see him sitting on the outside of the 2nd flight, just a few lengths behind Danzig Candy, Nyquist and Moyhamen (who has become a run off from what I can see in the mornings). I think Outwork will stay the distance and I don\'t think those other horses on the front end will.
IMO, the most talented horses in the race are the closers including the 3 I mentioned above that I will include. The problems are that a) I don\'t think the pace will be enough to set up the closers and b) any closer is always going to have to work this way through a lot of traffic, and c) in a year like this with so many looking to take back, a lot of these closers will lose a lot more ground on the first turn than the horses we are used to seeing make these last to first moves in the Derby after dropping back to the rail around the first turn.
From a pace standpoint, if you go back and look at the archives, typically, if the first 6f goes in 1:10 or slower, it\'s very tough for a deep closer to win. When I look at the horses in the this field, it\'s very hard for me to see the first 6f going in under 1:10.
that\'s what makes this a tough Derby for me, the best horses are the ones that I don\'t think have the right set up. the other tough thing is that many Derbies have looked slow on paper only to have more pace because a horse runs off (i.e. Palice Malice), etc.
anyway, those are my best thoughts. Good luck to all and have fun
Jim
