Nyquist - please win the Preakness

[Tale Of Ekati]

I can\'t wait to make a serious play against you June 6th.

[TempletonPeck]

Wynn posted +200 to win TC, -240 no, FYI.

[Dana666]

Yeah, he may be the type not to withstand the pressure of the three races. I was thinking that too. I think he\'s better than Pharoah was at this point, but most likely not as durable. Plus the race was super fast even with the souped up track--I mean you\'d have to think a bounce is coming. I\'ll say one thing for O\'Neill, he can def. get a horse ready for a big race. He looked amazing in the paddock and post parade. Never looked like losing for one second. And super Mario is so cool, he\'s looking back like he\'s got ice water in his veins. Strange how in a 20 horse field you have two incredible standouts and they actually run 1-2...uggghhh not my kind of scenario. The jackasses at TVG had their site go down so people in the east couldn\'t even bet, but I wasn\'t too excited really b/c I didn\'t think anyone was going to get near those top two. Boring from a betting standpoint. I like Mario so I\'m happy for him. Rock on.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Dana,
I have to disagree, this horse is not better than AP was at this stage. AP was much faster.
I\'ve lived through plenty that won the first two legs, and ran up the track the second Saturday in June. To me, this one has the feel of exactly that.
You bring up the word durable and you\'re exactly right. AP was faster than this horse and durable. Something Nyquist is going to have to prove. Even if he does prove his durability, I have a big problem with an Uncle Mo running a superior race at 1 1/2 mile. After a double top, 0-1, or 0-2; the Belmont\'s going to be rough.
Hopefully Nyquist wins the Preakness and rolls into NY undefeated. That\'s when  the media will frenzy. By the time June 11th rolls around, this horse will be 2/5, and I\'ll be locked and loaded to play against.

[TGJB]

Comparing this horse to AP is plain silly.

[Tale Of Ekati]

You know this is what\'s going through everyone\'s mind. Hope he wins in Baltimore, the media will go sick.
Too bad Woody Stephen\'s isn\'t alive. He would LOVE beating this horse, and he\'d be sitting in the weeds somewhere with some ace up his sleeve.
Speaking of Woody, have to pay close attention to the Peter Pan on Saturday.

[P-Dub]

Tale Of Ekati Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dana,
> I have to disagree, this horse is not better than
> AP was at this stage. AP was much faster.
> I\'ve lived through plenty that won the first two
> legs, and ran up the track the second Saturday in
> June. To me, this one has the feel of exactly
> that.
> You bring up the word durable and you\'re exactly
> right. AP was faster than this horse and durable.
> Something Nyquist is going to have to prove. Even
> if he does prove his durability, I have a big
> problem with an Uncle Mo running a superior race
> at 1 1/2 mile. After a double top, 0-1, or 0-2;
> the Belmont\'s going to be rough.
> Hopefully Nyquist wins the Preakness and rolls
> into NY undefeated. That\'s when  the media will
> frenzy. By the time June 11th rolls around, this
> horse will be 2/5, and I\'ll be locked and loaded
> to play against.

Geezus, we get it.  Every year after the Derby, we want him to win the Preakness, then we bet against in the Belmont.

I enjoy the buzz of a TC possibility as much as the opportunity to cash a nice ticket.

[Tale Of Ekati]

Lmao...rough night?
Thanks for bringing absolutely nothing to the conversation.

[P-Dub]

Tale Of Ekati Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lmao...rough night?
> Thanks for bringing absolutely nothing to the
> conversation.


Great night.

You give yourself a little too much credit if you think stating how betting against a TC possibility is bringing something to the conversation. I mean, thats just pure genius.

You mentioned it twice in the same thread. I guess repeating something that\'s obvious to everyone is \"bringing something to the conversation\". Ok.

[ringato3]

TGJB,

We will see what your numbers day.

But this horse was certainly more impressive in winning the Derby than AP was.   For at least awhile the Derby was in doubt with AP.  Granted, AP went on and smashed foes the next two legs.

But Nyquist is undefeated and for the most part, toyed with the field yesterday.

I am not a fan, having bet against the horse 6 times and bet on him zero times.  But he was very impressive winning yesterday.  Can\'t take that away from him.  Many (yourself included based on the seminar), thought he was a horrible 2-1 shot.  (I am in that club as well).  

But today is not the day to get beer muscles criticizing this horse.   HE did it on the track.  End of story.  At least this chapter.

Rob

[TGJB]

Criticizing the horse and saying he\'s not in the same league with AP are not the same thing. And he was a terrible 2-1 shot, they\'re all 1/9 after they win. You give me one like that every day to bet against and I\'ll retire by the end of the year.

A race and a horse are not the same thing. A race is one data point, a point is not a line. Bad favorites win sometimes. This is a game of percentages, and it is as incorrect to draw a firm conclusion from one performance here as it was with Cathryn Sophia in the Ashland.

When there are lots of data points, that\'s a different matter, but it\'s still a game of percentages. We know enough now to say it\'s good to come into the Derby with only two preps, and pair of tops is a good pattern-- eyeballing it, looks like the first and third finishers ran new tops.

And it\'s better to not race wide.

[ringato3]

TGJB,

Nyquist has achieved MORE on the racetrack than American Pharaoh did, at this point in their respective careers.   Nyquist is undefeated and and won the BC Juvenile.  

What happens going forward is certainly up in the air.

But far from ridiculous to make the comparison.  Many, including you, didn\'t have AP doing what he did from the Derby forwards either.  

Yes, I know that the TG figs to date aren\'t comparable.  Perhaps this is a weaker crop, but Nyquist has beaten them all.  

Rob

[TGJB]

Nothing on this site is about accomplishment. It\'s about ability. To know he\'s undefeated all you have to do is pick up USA Today.

Yes the crop isn\'t as good, and AP was faster going into and coming out of the Derby. By a lot.

[jbelfior]

I say go after him in Baltimore. That was a gut wrencher yesterday and you never know if an O\'Neal 3yo is going to make it to the third one.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Leamas57]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I say go after him in Baltimore. That was a gut
> wrencher yesterday and you never know if an O\'Neal
> 3yo is going to make it to the third one.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

I agree. While this horse is talented and a great competitor, he was flattered by a confluence of conditions. The CD track was very fast (variant 02-04?)--custom made for him--and the field of 20 consisted of only a handful (3?) of horses with any tactical speed who had shown staying power. You had to expect Mohaymen or DC to pull a Lazarus, or you needed a closer to avoid traffic in a huge field. Ex almost did; his number might be the same with ground loss. We\'ll see. . .
 
Assuming the Pimlico track is something less than lightning fast,and you   reduce the field to 12 where traffic wont play as big a role, I am going to find a couple of these three-year-olds who can jump up and beat him.

While at this point, I can already hear the chorus of \"Okay, who then?\", the potential challengers will have to emerge from the form, but the public will bet this guy down to 4-5 thinking they had already seen this movie just last year. I am mostly saying that if the track is just a little slower, he will not have his way in two weeks.

Leamas