Nyquist - please win the Preakness

[atakante]

I agree with this, but not the part to sit it out.  Why not play the exotics?  A longer shot or two behind Nyquist can make the pay out more interesting.

[JimP]

Agree. But saying it didn\'t hurt them is also an assumption.

[JimP]

That a track changes speed during the day is an assertion until it is proven. So why hasn\'t a test been run to prove it? Seems relatively easy to prove yes or no. Much harder to measure the degree of change between races in a specific racing day, but such precise real time measurement is not necessary to prove, or disprove, the principle that changes in the energy return characteristics of a track surface do occur.

[Chas04]

Good feeling its a complete slop fest like last year. 85% downpours forecast showing. Wow. Changes things up. Would think with all the money on Exag you may get much better value on Nyquist.

[jbelfior]

It\'s going to be a nasty nor\'easter. There is hope in that it moves slowly enough where the bulk of the rain does not get there until after the race.

Too early to time it at this point.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chas04]

Good point. Very early on...but that really could be huge. Will effect everything.

[ringato3]

Chas,

Extremely unlikely to \"change things up\" regarding the betting in the race.  (of course may change the results)

Lots of tourist money in the triple crown races.  maybe you get 1-2 instead of 2-5 on Nyquist, if you call that \"value\", god bless.

Without analyzing the race and having the draw happen, after AP won the triple crown last year and Nyquist won the Derby this year as an undefeated horse, there is going to be an inherent tendency for the masses to view Nyquist as unbeatable in the Preakness.  He is going to be shorter than he should be (which may be completely irrelevant to whether he wins or not, just whether you are getting value).

while I have no opinion yet, I am likely to feel compelled to at least take a mild swing against the horse based on \"perceived value\' in beating him.

I do think Exaggerator ran better than any other closer on dirt all day long on Derby day.  When you go over the charts for Derby day it is very hard to find any horse making a sustained late run.  On the other hand you can\'t call the track a classic \"golden rail / early speed bias\" either.  Not a single horse really wired on dirt.  All dirt winners were in the pace pressing category.  Makes the result tricky to read.

I guess my view would be that if you liked Exaggerator going in (as I did), you can find reason to like him again between the nice close and brief trouble he had on the far turn.  (although \"nice close\" aside, he was NOT getting to Nyquist late - but that also doesn\'t mean he can\'t this next time).

If you thought Nyquist was a beast going in, you got confirmation of it, and aren\'t likely to jump off the bandwagon now.,

Rob

[jbelfior]

Or is Exaggerator this year\'s Best Pal?


Good luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

The difference is I\'m looking at data, specifically that two horses ran new tops. Regardless, I\'m not even saying it didn\'t hurt them-- I\'m saying there\'s no evidence to back up that it did.

[Chas04]

Rob,

Thanks. That was a great explanation and makes a lot of sense.

[Paolo]

I\'d guess they also had the FL Derby faster than TG. A lot of sore players on this board, including me, had little respect for Nyquist after seeing his TG number going into KY. Perhaps a lot of residual doubt based on that GP figure?

[miff]

Gun Runner reportedly will not run in Preakness

[TGJB]

None. Zero. I made that race as fast as it could be made.

[Leamas57]

If I am right, Exaggerator closed into a very fast surface when no one else could. But a wet track, if sealed, may not change much except that this time you have more speed trying to steal it, and perhaps Ex gets incrememtal benefit for liking a wet surface. An article from Cleveland.com confirms my belief that the Derby Day track was lightning.

\"The track bias over a glib dirt surface was so strong at Churchill Downs that even NBC race caller Larry Collmus was fooled by it. When he saw the opening quarter of a mile split of 22 2/5 seconds and a half-mile in 45 3/5 seconds, he said \"(it) could help the late closers here.\"

Collmus\' opinion was based on fact. The half-mile split was the third-fastest in Kentucky Derby history, yet Nyquist, pushing along the pacesetters from either second or third place, didn\'t miss a beat as he powered to the front and kept right on going.\"

The article goes on to point out that the first 8 of 8 winners on dirt were frontrunners or stalkers that day.
 

Leamas

http://www.cleveland.com/horseracing/index.ssf/2016/05/nyquist_pushed_pace_to_win_ken.html

[rhagood]

Per jock:

\"The hard rain [before the race] made it 45 and change but it was really like 46 and change,\" said Mike Smith, Danzing Candy\'s jockey. \"The track was very, very, very quick.\"

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-preakness-story-lines-20160517-story.html