Post Mortem

[ringato3]

Sometimes best to sleep on it before posting a post mortem, but it is the Derby after all.

Some thoughts:

1.  Hate to start with Pletcher, but boy is he awful in the Derby.  Granted, neither horse was one of the favorites, but they both had numbers and looked to run a bit.  Not all all.  Again.  

2.  Three years in a row a California horse, favored at 5/2 or less, looking like a bet against for TG users, wins the Derby. This one looked just as average on Beyer, but was more impressive than American Pharaoh and at least commensurate with California Chrome, from a visual perspective  (will wait on figures)

3.  GunRunner, as slow as he was on numbers, ran a pretty nice race.  The other pace setters who ran with Nyquist, Danzig Candy and Outwork, finished way way back.  This horse is OK.  Don\'t think his TG figures reflect his talent.

4.  I left after the Derby, but till then no dirt horses making moves from way back all day and the track was playing to fast times.  Looks like at bit speed favoring to me, but the Derby pace was certainly fast.  

5.  Considering the way the track played, I thought Exaggerator ran a nice race.  He was coming pretty hard late, albeit never threatening the winner.  

6.  20 horse field with 1st favorite over 2nd favorite over 3rd favorite over 4th favorite.  Sheesh.  Trifecta paying 80 bucks or so in a 20 horse field.  Yikes.  

this horse is better than lots of people on this board thought.  Not sure why so many of us messed this up.  (host included).  Nyquist looked a winner every step of the way.  Maybe for a brief moment when GunRunner made his move, I thought he had a shot, but just for a moment.  The rest of the way Nyquist was always looking good.  (sick feeling for somebody holding Oaks DErby Doubles with 5 horses not named Nyquist).

Not sure I have any interest in going after this horse again in 2 weeks.  I guess he will have a TG sheet that looks like a big top and 2 weeks rest, but not sure his TG (or Beyer) numbers for his previous races are accurately reflecting the horse\'s ability.  

Rob

[T Severini]

After the race its hard to reach any conclusion other than the California horses are superior.

Pletcher picks his spots well in the Preps. Come Derby time, he\'s up against the best and out of tricks. Been there with him in the past, I feel your pain.

Made some bets, the Nyquist saver key was the only one I sniffed, but it was pure chalk. Still almost had the super.

Funny Derby, it chalked out, but it was hard to separate them.

Nyquist looks like a good one. Mohaymen ran better but still needs some seasoning.

The top two deserve the credit, but the value horse I was highest on was Mo Tom and wouldn\'t you know he found trouble again. He wasn\'t getting to the top two, but he could have beaten Gun Runner.

Looking forward to the Red Board Room. Wasn\'t able to follow them much this year.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Simple post mortem, the points system has changed the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a result where the best horses run the best, but no money is to be made.

[ringato3]

Old Boston,

Simple (and likely wrong) assertion.

Danzig Candy ran like cheap 2 year old speed today.  Exactly like it.  Hard to believe any other cheap speed would have resulted in the pace being faster than 22 45 like it was.

And Nyquist won easily.

More complicated than that.

Rob

[johnnym]

My 2 cents.After a rain scare the track went of fast and no need to adjust my tix. I keyed Nyquist as I truly felt he was the best horse coming in.
I hit the tri needed SBN for the Super but loss $$ on the race,very anticlimactic
Points system has really changed the race small sample size though.
Again Pletcher is a no show he is must toss in the win spot Derby Day.
Pace is usually present in the Derby and it proved true again today.
Mohayman was a toss for me, almost cost me, he really ran a nice race.
Nyquist is a serious race horse and fresh coming in only of 16F of preps I am predicting he will be going to Belmont with a chance to win the Triple,need to see who shows up at belmont.
Well another 364 days until the next Derby.
Thanks JB for a great product and a great forum.

[boardedup]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Old Boston,
>
> Simple (and likely wrong) assertion.
>
> Danzig Candy ran like cheap 2 year old speed
> today.  Exactly like it.  Hard to believe any
> other cheap speed would have resulted in the pace
> being faster than 22 45 like it was.
>
> And Nyquist won easily.
>
> More complicated than that.
>
> Rob

So true.  Annoyed that DC went that fast, but really it\'s irrelevant, Nyquist pressed the pace and had plenty.  Same as he has in the past, press and then take over top of stretch and refuse to be passed.  

Today really impressed me.  I guess I didn\'t give him near enough respect for numerous \"visually\" impressive efforts.  He was/is flat out slow on paper? I\'m having a hard time reconciling.  He just does what he has to do to win EVERY time.  But I like the abuse, I\'ll be against him in two weeks again.

[Chas04]

Great post. Of course he is not AP but I think this horse can win the Triple Crown. Not just win it but win by 10+. I really hope we don\'t see absurd Pletcher and Baffert horses with great TGs cases being made that didn\'t run in the Derby. Nyquist would run them into submission.

[TreadHead]

Danzig Candy ran like a horse who was attempting 10F who is out of a Songandaprayer mare, who (according to BRIS) has an AverageWinningDistance as a damsire of exactly 6.0F.  I don\'t think there is anything \"cheap speed\" about him, he\'s just a 7-8F horse, which his breeding suggests he should be.

EDIT - Also, I can\'t think of a single factor that people waste more time on in the Derby than \"Pace Scenario\".  People waste so much time pouring over this point and then it never turns out the way the majority of people expected it to.

[boardedup]

Chas04 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great post. Of course he is not AP but I think
> this horse can win the Triple Crown. Not just win
> it but win by 10+. I really hope we don\'t see
> absurd Pletcher and Baffert horses with great TGs
> cases being made that didn\'t run in the Derby.
> Nyquist would run them into submission.


I know he\'s lightly raced this year, but the two week turn around after that effort?  And then Belmont if and when he gets out of MD? I was really impressed today and think he\'s a special horse but I\'m not ready to crown him just yet.  Big Brown looked unbeatable to.

[ringato3]

Tread,

YOu clearly didn\'t understand the thread.

The assertion (normally your specialty) from Old Mr Boston, was that the change in the points system eliminating horses that had 2 year old earnings in stakes races earned at shorter distances has changed the derby dynamic eliminating those sprinters/early developes from the Derby and making it more formful.

Today, Danzig Candy ran just like one of those early developing and/or distance challenged horses and set a fast pace.  

A sprinter, even quality, running long, can be \"cheap speed\".

Songandaprayer, the horse you mention in your post, set the fastest pace in derby history (at least then, if not now.  He was distance challenged as is Danzig Candy, apparently.

Rob

[jerry]

Couldn\'t agree more. Most derby pace scenarios go out the window at the break.

[slewzapper]

Correct - Songandaprayer won the FOY and ran 2nd in the Blue Grass, if the points system now in place would have existed then he would have qualified for the KD.

All the excuses for Mohaymen\'s performance in the FD (heat, humidity, track condition) were also factors that Nyquist had to deal with, plus the shipping. Just because he won the FD didn\'t mean he was immune to those factors. The paired number NYQ earned under those circumstances was the basis for believing he was not only a vulnerable favorite but a false favorite (slower than several others). In retrospect it looks like the performance discounting that was applied to Mohaymen should have also been applied to the winner as well.

Nyqvist owned the race today from the first step out of the gate.

[Tavasco]

slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Nyqvist owned the race today from the first step
> out of the gate.

I think it is worth noting that Nyquist also owned the Florida Derby. In hindsight he toyed with them @GP.

Mohaymen ran nicely today, but he wasn\'t in the same class as the top two just as the FL Derby suggested. O\'Neill referred to the winners character, the look in his eye. There might be something to it ala Hollywood\'s Seabiscuit.  

Here is the thing, nobody\'s data shows how much gas is left in the tank at the end of the race.

The easy run away prep winners all ran well today!

[pizzalove]

Boy you are dead on.  One derby rule I have is when they say there is a lot of speed there never is and when they say there is no speed there will be.

Another lousy race with terrible pay outs.  what do they do to the track to soupe it up like this?  Was it this way on Oaks day?

Everything started exactly like I had hoped but the track must have been extra hard or something.

[ajkreider]

Nyquist ran a great race, but Ex was as good.  Who knows if he gets by him without the checking, but he would have looked him in the eye.

Belmont should be interesting, especially with well-rested late speed likely.