Old Mr. Boston Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Simple post mortem, the points system has changed
> the Derby for bettors. Without the cheap 2 year
> old speed, chalk will reign supreme and we get a
> result where the best horses run the best, but no
> money is to be made.
Agree. The precocious 2 yo\'s (aka \'cheap speed\'), who previously would have taken some serious dough, are absent. We\'ll see fewer 2 yo\'s with good foundation and good breeding that are just rounding into form for the Derby (a la Giacomo, Charismatic, Mine That Bird, etc.) at juicy mutuels.
The good 3 yo\'s are now almost required to participate in one of the big 4 preps at 1 1/8 to guarantee themselves a spot in the gate, so more of them are meeting in a race before the big one. They have pretty much sorted themselves out. And they are all in good current form, judging by the almost unheard of lack of scratches in the final month this year.
Therefore, I also expect the reign of chalk to continue. No hard data to debate. We\'ll know in another two years.
