I\'ve taken a first pass at the Derby, it\'s obvious how to do it, but we\'re waiting for a review of the ground before we put both days up. Yes, you would have been better off waiting. But I want to clear up a bunch of stuff before this place turns into Roswell.
If you ever heard me say I was sure that Dubai figure was spot on, point me to where. It was a small field of 3yos, the only race on the card at that distance, with exactly one horse in it that we had hard figures for (Frank Conversation, who we gave 3/4 point off his synth/grass top, on dirt). My opinion on Lani in the Derby (aside from all the equine histrionics) was that he was slow, and off a big top. If you make that race 3/4 faster he\'s a little less slow, and off an even bigger top. He did go forward a couple of points in the Derby.
By the way, the question is not whether the Dubai figure is right. The question is whether his previous one is right, whether all us figure makers have been undervaluing the Japanese form by a point or two.
The Wood, FG, etc. One of the problems with discussions with the Raggies (and some here) is that unlike many others here, they\'ve never made figures, haven\'t followed the discussions here, or looked closely at the days we post and the RBR. They seem to think we scratch our chins, and go hmmm... I think I\'ll give this race a 5. No, a 7. No, I like 5 better. So instead of asking questions over there or getting involved in any serious discussion of how the figures were arrived at (by anybody), they just call people names.
The way FG does things, the big days are stacked with dirt route stakes. That, combined with how solid the 3yos were, made it a breeze to do those races. And nothing those horses did in the Derby in any way casts doubt on that. We said going in that Gun Runner \"is one of the leading candidates in the field for a new top\". He ran one. And it got him to about the same figure that the 7th and 9th finishers ran-- the difference is he saved ground, and so won a 3 horse photo for third, running the fifth best figure in the race, roughly tied with 3 others.
Mo Tom roughly paired his top, Tom\'s Ready went back. The FG figures are dead on.
Of the three Wood horses that ran in the Derby, two we didn\'t like, and they ran much worse than any figure anyone gave them for the Wood. Outwork did run worse than we thought he would... as did Mor Spirit, who was not out of the Wood. But here\'s the thing-- we put everything out there for everyone to see in the RBR, post sheets after the big days so everyone can look, and answer all questions-- there have been hundreds of posts and questions concerning figure making and individual figures over the years. Every once in a while Friedman will post a race after the fact to show what a great bet there was, meaning they have the ability to do what we do. So why don\'t you ask them to post the Wood, with the figures they ran that day. I would be willing to bet not a single Raggie who handicapped that race said, you know what, I think EVERY horse will go back today at the same time. 3yos, in a GI, they\'ll all go back. So see if you can get them to post the race, like we do, and to explain how they got to those figures. I think you\'ll find his answer illuminating-- if you can get one.
