TGJB Wrote:
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> Explain the relative payoffs the first night of
> the carryover at CD (mandy payout), and the next
> day. I\'m stumped.
>
> Both times the winner of the last was about second
> favorite in the will pays. Will pays the second
> day were on average several times the first day.
The win parlays for each of those sequences (Thurs and Fri) were almost identical. But when you look how how the public is likely betting into these things, it makes sense why the mandatory day ended up paying less than the following day, even though the mandatory day had the benefit of the big carryover pool.
On the mandatory payout day (Thursday May 12), the pool was $1,470,005, plus an additional $343,154 in the form of the split carryover from Derby day.
So there was .15*$1,470,005 = $220,500 subtracted from the pool in the form of the 15% takeout and $343,154 added to the pool by the carryover, for a net addition of $122,654. This meant that there was a +$122,654/$1,470,005 = +8.3% positive advantage for the player.
The $.20 parlay was $512, in which there is an inherent -16% takeout in each leg. But since you only get hit with the takeout once in the Pick 6, and because in this particular case the effective \"takeout\" was actually a positive 8.3%, the expected payout was 1.083/(1-.16)^6 = 3.08 times the parlay, or $1,580.
The actual payout was only $679 (about 33% more than the parlay), which was light but not unexpected given that the sequence was extremely chalky (none of the winners were more than the 3rd choice in the betting and none paid over $10.80), which nearly always produces underlaid payouts in traditional pick sixes (ie. no jackpot in play).
On a typical day in the CD Single 6 (non-mandatory payout day or non-lone winner day), the expectation on the bet is a whopping (1-.15)*(1-.10)/(1-.16)^6 = 2.18x the parlay, or just over twice the parlay.
On Friday it paid $2,518, which was almost 5 times the parlay of $506.
On Saturday it paid $490, which was almost 7 times the parlay of $71.
On Sunday it paid $3,643, more than 3 times the parlay of $1,145.
Fri/Sat/Sun were all pretty chalky sequences too (with no bombs), especially Saturday’s sequence. The difference between these days and Thursday’s sequence of course is that Thursday was a mandatory payout day, whereas these days had a $343K+ jackpot pool in play that could be taken down by one lucky winner.
On mandatory days, everybody’s just trying to hit the thing, so chalky sequences get way overbet. It’s just the opposite on non-mandatory days, where much of the public is chasing the jackpot, creating much greater value on logical sequences than the math alone would indicate.
What appears to be happening with this CD Single 6 jackpot is exactly what astute handicappers would have hoped for. The day-to-day bets should, on average, be paying just over twice the parlay, not the 3 to 7 times the parlay we’ve witnessed over the first three days.
