Well, I think I may have to hang it up then.
While there are some similarities between Strad and Bernadini, this race sets up completely different than the 2006 Preakness. I think the draw really hurt Strad here. There is a lot of speed in this race. The 9 horse hasn\'t come close to being headed at any call in his last 5 races, two of which were sprints. Also, the track is most likely going to be sloppy, meaning the front runners will probably send, including Nyquist. That probably means wide trip for Strad, and going wide on the first turn at Pimlico is not a recipe for success. For him to win he\'s almost certainly going to have to overcome a wide trip and run a very big number in his first graded stakes try. He also hasn\'t beaten anything in the two fields that he ran so well against, so he may be a bit overrated IMO. Plus even if he runs his race he\'s still got to beat Nyquist and Exaggerator. So would you be playing them to bounce, or do you think Strad will just beat them?
Could Strad win? Of course. But he\'s probably the 3rd betting choice here and for me the odds won\'t justify the risk.
Not saying I like Nyquist in this spot. He may have to eat some dirt for the first time here, which is something he has never done. The way I see it he\'s going to have to send from the inside with a lot of speed trying to cross over from the outside. If they don\'t send he could get stuck behind a couple of horses right in the kickback with someone to his immediate outside pinning him in. That\'s a trip he\'s never had before. In any case, it\'s tough to see him getting an outside stalking trip, and there is a lot of speed in here to try to wire the field. Plus NYQ is coming off a new lifetime top on two weeks rest.
No matter what, the way I see it NYQ has got his work cut out for him and he\'s an underlay. And I can\'t back Strad given the draw and what he\'s going to have to overcome. It would seem on paper that the race sets up much better for Exaggerator, but I dunno how much you can trust him either. I could probably trust him at 4-1 or 9/2 or so if I could get it.
Once you get past those three, NYQ, EXG, STR, if you try to make an argument for one of the other ones winning it\'s pretty tough to sort them out as they all would probably need a big forward move to win here.
I hate to say it, but for me the Preakness is probably a pass race unless I decide to bet EXG or use him as a single in the horizontals. Too many unknowns.
Maybe I\'m still shell shocked from the KY Derby.
