Early Belmont Probables

[miff]

Exaggerator, Nyquist, Suddenlybnews,Lani,Cherry Wine,Brody\'s Cause,Destin.


Probably a few more but no real gas outside of Nyquist...a little Destin.

[Chas04]

I really wish Unified would run.

[Topcat]

Reportedly, Nyquist sports a 102 temp, Monday ayem.    #andawaywego

[johnnym]

Byk just mentioned it as well

[ringato3]

If that becomes the field, a pretty ugly race from a handicapping perspective.

1.  Nyquist would have a huge edge from a pace perspective.

2.  Offsetting point 1 for some of us is that if you believe that TGJB posted about 10 days ago, a big X is coming for Nyquist.  He can always change his mind, but TGJB and others have been saying they expect a regression then an X for Nyquist.  The Preakness was a bit of a regression and a rough race for him.  He could bounce big in the Belmont, but if he does, he will do so with a huge tactical edge.

3.  Not a fan of any of the grinders - Suddenbreakingnews, cherry wine, brody\'s cause.  

4.  Exaggerator a tough call.  The horse has a turn of foot. A very nice one in fact (on wet or dry).  Unfortunately, the \"turn of foot\" capability has the smallest impact in the Belmont IMO.  The race is usually won by gallopers who can sustain that high cruising speed for a long period of time.  Not by a dynamic quarter mile burst that Exaggerator has shown.

5.  Destin would be interesting if he wasn\'t trained by the worst big name trainer in the last 30 years or so.  (at least as far as these triple crown races go) and Yes that is an opinion, not a fact, but the guy has gone a long way in proving that with results on the track

Aren\'t there any other sneaky horses laying out there that want to take their shot?

Rob

[TGJB]

4-- See Victory Gallop. Specifically, watch the 99 Whitney and Foster.

What\'s the difference between a galloper and a grinder, exactly?

[TempletonPeck]

Mostly, whether you like that horse/that style :-P

[jbelfior]

What is Pletcher\'s record in the Belmont? I think it best to remove his Derby and Preakness numbers when coming to any conclusions about him or Destin in 3 weeks.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MonmouthGuy]

Agree. He has had more than his share of horses outrun their odds and hit the board  in the Belmont, including some who had not fired earlier in the TC. Bluegrass Cat exception below as he was favored.

1st Belmont S. - 2013 - Palace Malice
1st Belmont S. - 2007 - Rags to Riches
2nd Belmont S. - 2014 - Commissioner
2nd Belmont S. - 2011 - Stay Thirsty
2nd Belmont S. - 2009 - Dunkirk
2nd Belmont S. - 2006 - Bluegrass Cat *
3rd Belmont S. - 2008 - Ready\'s Echo
3rd Belmont S. - 2006 - Sunriver

[Silver Charm]

Well put and well documented. It was a totally reckless and uninformed remark. Commissioner was like 20-1 and Palice Malice ran to then the best race of his career.

[Flighted Iron]

From 16 starters.

[miff]

Rob,

Unified is the wise guy horse except that he was life and death vs a weak field in the Peter Pan. If field comes up weak and Unified is doing well,think he goes.

Re Nyquist regression in Preakness, it was 1/4 length after pace adjustment.Also watch the Preakness close and note Exaggerator moving right into the race after app the first half,Kent D commented he caught an inside live path from the tractor.Guessing he\'s closer in Belmont if no pace up front.Still feel he\'s better wet.


If Nyquist passes on Belmont, Destin would profile that kinda speed type that could get loose and gallop around there.


Mike

[ringato3]

TGJB,

A \"grinder\" to me would be one of the horses that drops back to last or thereabouts and makes a steady close, maybe better than \"steady\" when the pace is hot enough.  How many horses this year in the Derby had the same running style of dropping back to last and coming late.  (13 or so of them - Suddenbreakingnews, MyManSam, NoTom, Lani, Creator, Trojan Nation, OScar Nominated, Whitmore, etc.etc

A \"galloper\" would be a horse with a high cruising speed that can run closer to the lead and click off 24 and change quarters.  Palace Malice was that kind.  First Dude didn\'t hang on, but was that kind.  Union Rags and Rags to Riches both had that kind of tactical speed.  As did Tonalist.

Sure, Victory Gallop was an exception and I don\'t need to watch the replay.  That nose cost me a relative fortune and nightmares.  But that kind of stirring finish from well off the pace is sort of the exception in the Belmont, isn\'t it?  

Rob

[TempletonPeck]

Fair to say \'galloper\' is ~= \'stalker\'?

[Edgorman]

Is Byk on Sirius radio?? If so, time and channel?? Thx.