Bloodhorse Belmont Preview.

[bobphilo]

The Bloodhorse just ran an article claiming there is a \"historical\" advantage to to early speed horses in the Belmont. I think this notion of race specific data is nonsense. Ask any statistician. The sample size for a race run just once a year is way too small to be significant unless one goes way back which then gives you an unrepresentative sample of what\'s currently the case. There is nothing magical about one particular race that defies the laws of probabilities of all other races.
Yes the lack of early speed in this years Belmont gives speed horses an advantage but that is true for any race from $5,000 claimers to the Classics.

[FrankD.]

Bob,

I just got beat on the wire with Wild Chatter out of the pick 4 and then read your post.They say timing in life is everything!

My advice to you is to private message Miff and ask him to please reserve you a burn barrel in the Bowery in the statiscians unit. Believe me you will have lots of company and probably will run into a colleague or 2 from MIT.

In the words of Harvey Pack \" Have A Good Life\"

Frank D.

[bobphilo]

Frank,

Sorry but I don\'t get your Wild Chatter reference.

Your reply may be clever but cryptic. Are you taking a shot at me for debunking the pseudo-statistical notion of race-specific analysis?

[TempletonPeck]

I can\'t recall enjoying a post more that I understood so little!

[bobphilo]

You and me both. Now if we could just find a betting site that paid off on obscure humor....

[sekrah]

Two things that I think make it legit:

#1. 1 1/2 mile is an extremely rare distance for these jockeys to run.  Virtually all of those races on turf.  1.5 miles on Dirt? Who runs them?  Many jockeys think they have to take back.  Meanwhile, most of these champion caliber horses can clip off 24 seconds all day without blowing out a candle.

#2.  Lots of jockeys come to Belmont and are inexperienced with the layout and panic when asking their mounts for their runs.  One run closers get asked too early and they putter out early in the stretch.


I\'ll never bet a horse that figures to be more than 5 off the lead in the Belmont.

[bobphilo]

True many Belmonts have been lost due to the riders\' ignorance of the large Belmont track. However these were not just closers. Smarty Jones and Real Quiet made premature moves from the front. Afleet Alex made his winning move from off the pace as did Birdstone.
There is no reason not to evaluate the race like any other race according to figures and pace scenario analysis but with added emphasis on the jockey\'s ability to ride intelligently.

[mjellish]

I think Sek is dead right on this.  How many of these colts will ever run 1 1/2 on the dirt again?  Probably none or for sure not many.  And anyone who makes a move early on the final turn is usually moving too early.  Closers have their late kick muted if the front runners go slow enough early, which they usually do.  Clicking off 12 and change 1/8ths helps the fromt running types.  Trainers have caught on to this.  Pletcher almost always sends his Belmont starters out of the gate to be towards the front, regardless of previous running style.  

There\'s been some unlikely results, in part, because of this.  See Ruler On Ice, etc.  Far as i\'m concerned Da Tara should be a cuss phrase.

[johnnym]

Forget who on this board correctly predicted that Pletcher was going to send Commissioner and he lost by a nose.

Destin??

[streetbull]

The owner of scout stable or Covello

[Ace]

It was me, that horse was the worst beat of my life I had the tri, super, Pick 4, Pick 3 and a big win bet on Commissioner at 28-1 if he only would hang on to win.

[P-Dub]

bobphilo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Bloodhorse just ran an article claiming there
> is a \"historical\" advantage to to early speed
> horses in the Belmont. I think this notion of race
> specific data is nonsense. Ask any statistician.
> The sample size for a race run just once a year is
> way too small to be significant unless one goes
> way back which then gives you an unrepresentative
> sample of what\'s currently the case. There is
> nothing magical about one particular race that
> defies the laws of probabilities of all other
> races.
> Yes the lack of early speed in this years Belmont
> gives speed horses an advantage but that is true
> for any race from $5,000 claimers to the Classics.

The Preakness has had many closers hit the board, often at nice mutuels.

[joemama]

Yes, correct.

[jbelfior]

Another painful moment in my life. Should rename it Tonalist Park.

Checkout the Belmont Stakes archives. Interesting connection between certain distances run prior to running in the Belmont and the 1 1/2 distance. Stay Thirsty, Ruler on Ice, D\'Tara, Sarava, just to name a few.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[pizzalove]

Do you have a link for this?  Sounds interesting.