richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m all for beating short priced favorites in the
> horizontals, BUT
>
> 1) Flintshire was DOMINANT in his only US start,
> and
>
> 2) Flintshire says \"Hello Lasix\" on Saturday.
>
> I can afford to use Flintshire in the Pick
> whatever, because the Preakness winner
> will not be on the ticket.
I, too, am all for beating short priced favorites in the horizontals, but I, too, share RichieBee\'s concerns.
Flintshire has had more than one U.S. Start, but his effort at Saratoga last summer was mighty impressive. A repeat of that should be good enough notwithstanding the weight differentials (barring trip issues). By the way, while perhaps unlikely, a case could still be made that the horse is going to make a new top on Saturday. He gets a new trainer (who some might call a super trainer) and he gets Lasix the first time and he is first off a long layoff. While it is hard to make it a fair comparison, the only time the horse had a layoff like this was between the 3yo and 4yo years and his first time back off the layoff was a major jump forward. Of course, a lot of that had to be the difference between 3 and 4.......but with new trainer, new medicine, and first off the layoff, I would have to think this horse is very solid to run his top and there is a chance he does even better. You could poo poo that saying he is six years old, but it is not unheard of for super trainers to get new lifetime tops out of six year old horses. If you believe the American trainers can use things that Europeans cannot, this horse is first time all that stuff as well as first time Lasix.
I think one of our sadly departed board participants used to be critical of the tendency to knee jerk throw out favorites. I like betting against favorites sas much as the next guy, but I also know it is not something you can automatically always do, and you should be choosing the spots where you do it. I think Flintshire is a perfect example of this. I am not going to let him beat an otherwise good ticket. BTW, I am not suggesting singling him (although I may load up a few extra times on him versus the others in the horizontals as you wont need as much fire power if you beat him). Also, I will look at the verticals in the race -- if there are nice prices to catch underneath, a super with him singled in the top spot and catching something under should be rewarding notwithstanding the short price in the top spot.
