jimbo66 Wrote:
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> Gonna work this from race 5 back to race 1 for
> reasons which will become apparent when you get to
> race 1. Will try not reveal too much figure info
> to keep the host happy...
>
> Race 5 - Would be tempted to go narrow here
> because on TG, StopChargingMaria a solid play off
> paired tops and highest figures in the race
> outside the bust out figure from Cavorting, but I
> think the race is interesting, so I am going to
> use a few more. Carrumba, at the weights, in a
> field with limited early speed and a usually
> aggressive jockey, could trip out nice either on
> the lead or stalking the 3 who should stop on a
> dime. I think 6-1 is fair and expect a premium
> from a pick-5 perspective. I have to use
> Cavorting off the big figure, despite it being a
> bit of a \"stand alone\" figure. The 4th horse I
> will use is Forever Unbridled. She is slightly
> slower than the other 3, but has run 3 straight
> competitive figures and is still a young enough 4
> year old that there could be more. I am against
> Curalina as I don\'t like Pletcher second off the
> layoff when they fire first time out. (see
> disgusting run by Rachel Valentina in the Oaks as
> case in point). Plus, Curalina suffers in the
> weights off the recent perfect trip score, where
> the other fast horse blew a gasket in the paddock,
> never settled and didn\'t run. That horse being
> Sheer Drama, who runs back here. I wrestled for a
> bit between Sheer Drama and Forever Unbridled for
> the last slot on my pick-5, but settled on the
> younger horse with a bit more upside. Sheer Drama
> will likely run OK, but think she has established
> her top level already, while the others have some
> more potential.
>
> Race 4 - A major spread race for me. 1 1/2 on
> dirt, limited data at that distance, standard
> deviation for the result has to be higher. (same
> strategy just failed in the 2 mile turf race
> though at Belmont as 2-1 over 7-2 in the exacta in
> what looked like an open race). Elnaawi a use for
> me off the number power. Last race ugly, but ran
> at a time Kiaran was AWFUL with everything.
> Kiaran still not hot, but getting a bit better.
> Some old figures he has run are very tough here.
> Will use Samraat who may never be the same, but
> his figures are creeping back to his top. If he
> has one left in him, tomorrow may be the day.
> Gonna use Shaman Ghost off the big concealed
> figure last time on TG. He could bounce to the
> moon off the big jump up, but it was first time 4
> year old, so he has a right to be bigger and
> stronger and I trust the trainer in this case (a
> lesser trainer would make this horse a toss). Kid
> Cruz is the captain obvious horse that I will use
> but don\'t want to win as he figures a short price.
> A standout on overall figures using TG, but I am
> VERY SUSPECT about this horse getting 1 1/2 mile.
> Not based on breeding, but the way he runs. An
> extremely hard horse to ride if you watch his
> races. Been fooled more than once when I thought
> this horse was done early when the jockey was
> scrubbing and pushing 3/4 of a mile from the
> finish. To me, not an ideal scenario for a horse
> to run 1 1/2. But on number power, can\'t toss.
> My last use is a horse that is slow on TG,
> Securitiz. But I think this horse has some
> potential and ran about as good as Turco Braveo
> who beat him with a better trip. Thought the ride
> was a bit indecisive and the horse was not
> comfortable. At 10-1++ in the pick-5 will
> include.
>
> Race 3 - Nothing smart here. Two horse race
> between Cathryn Sophia and Carina Mia. I like the
> latter more as Cathryn has fought a number of
> tough ones already this year, including a grueling
> Oaks, whereas Carina Mia may be just hitting her
> stride. SHould be a good race.
>
> Race 2 - Will use 3 horses here and hope TG users
> benefit here as this race looks VERY different on
> Beyer than it does on TG. On Beyer, you have to
> use at least 6 horses. On TG, I will use 3
> horses. Juan and Bina, while he seldom wins, has
> many strong numbers and has to be used. AT the
> weights, Connect is the fastest horse and should
> also get a good trip, so is a must use. I will
> forgive Eagle Scout his last and hope he gets back
> to his first race, which would make him tough
> there. I will live with those 3 horses. Wouldn\'t
> blame anybody for using Pax in Terra who is a bit
> slow, but with a trip could be competitive at
> 15-1. Lemon Drop Title and Doctor Mounty are
> tosses on TG.
>
> Race 1 - I am going to make a comment and hope for
> input on this leg from the other TG posters. It
> was my intention after looking at the PPs to
> single Cupid, who looked loose on the lead, to go
> right to the front and put this field to sleep.
> At one point, I liked this horse as a strong derby
> prospect (I was not alone on that). Then I looked
> at the TG figures and at the weights Cupid is the
> slowest horse in the race and least likely winner
> and an ABSOLUTE TOSS on TG. (TGJB, if you use him
> even defensively on your pick-5 ticket, that would
> be heresy against your own product). Personally,
> am undecided. Not to bring up old stuff, but
> there is one scenario where the first three races
> Cupid had, in California, got slower than expected
> TG figures, and then it obviously has an effect on
> the figures he gets when he ships. (data in, data
> out). Or is this just a GREAT betting opportunity
> to toss a 3/5 shot who is extremely unlikely to
> win.
>
> Thoughts?
>
> Jim
I don\'t have a problem with tossing Cupid. If you give him better figures than TG did, you have to bump up the figs of the horses in the Belmont that ran against him in Arkansas, are you willing to do that? How much are you going to bump him up by? AS you point out, he has weight issues too, so it is not just a small bump up to make him justify his odds. The other thing, if he were loose on the lead, no conceding this but arguendo, that is a totally different thing going one turn than two turns. Maybe lone speed getting a 1w1w is a special angle....but they are going to be running a fair amount before they hit the turn and it is a mighty small field. If my horse has a stronger fig, that horse is going to need to really get a very easy lead to put the rest to sleep, but I don\'t see it as likely. Even if the contenders don\'t go with him, they are not going to be that far back. Here you have a horse taking a huge amount of public money because he was on the Derby trail and Baffert. That creates the inefficiency a guy like me is looking to exploit. I am on record here defending Flintshire against people who want to throw him out. In this case, I think Cupid is an easy toss. In the rare cases where he wins, those are not lost bets that upset me. They happen, but those are not the losses that really hurt. What would really hurt is to toss Cupid correctly, but still not get the right horse -- that hurts a lot more than being beat by Cupid would.
