Frosted

[TGJB]

\"You say to yourself, \'What\'d we do to make him run like that\', but it\'s hard to say\". -- Kiaran.

I got an idea. Make a list of things you did not just to him, but to Kareena and Cavorting. See what you come up with.

[jbelfior]

Frosted fooled me when i saw him live and in person at Parx last year. Pranced around the walking ring all muscled up and ran to his looks.

Six weeks later I was salivating at the BC Classic exacta payoffs with AP and walked away from the window with enough to call it the biggest play I ever made. My daughter\'s wedding would be paid for (Italian wedding, 250+ guests---not cheap) in 2 and change.

Buddy of mine who was with me then was with me on Saturday. Told him you just watched the greatest Met Mile performance in history (now ThoroGraph history) from a horse who couldn\'t lift a hoof in the BC when $60K was on the line.

Thanks Kiaran.  


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

Probably the fastest figure in history.

[johnnym]

Was curious about that.

[miff]

Maybe TG history, nowhere else.

[TGJB]

Haven\'t done it yet, but he ran 9 points better than the second horse, at least 10 better than anyone else. I would be interested in hearing about individual performances you think were better than that.

[miff]

That gets subjective, also no one had Plechers filly,that you gave neg -6 or near that,anywhere near as fast.

Projecting/slaving off a horse that ran 2nd, 3rd or whatever ain\'t the way others make figures when there are enough data points in one turn races of similar distances to establish a constant variant.

Slaving off any horse except the winner, when same day data is available, is a slippery slope.

[TGJB]

I was EXTREMELY conservative with that race, as you will see when we post it. And he ran the best figure of all time.

[prist]

The horses that ran behind FROSTED is also (data.) Why avoid it?

[NormandyInvasion]

Best Beyers of all time:


Horse   Year earned   Speed Figure   Cite
Groovy           1987   134   [1]
Groovy           1987   131   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   128   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   126   [1]
Gentlemen   1997   126   
Will\'s Way   2007   126   [1]
Formal Gold   1997   125   [1]
Skip Away   1997   125   [1]
Bertrando   1993   125   
Sunday Silence   1989   124   
Easy Goer   1989   124   
Formal Gold   1997   124   [1]
Artax           1999   124   [1]
Ghostzapper   2004   124   
Midnight Lute   2007   124   
Frosted           2016   123   
Commentator   2005   123   
Artax           1999   123   [1]
Easy Goer   1989   122   
Alysheba   1988   122   
Holy Bull   1994   121   
Quality Road   2011   121   
American Pharoah2015   120

[miff]

On your stuff only. Looking at the times of several races, it\'s easy to see you are over indulged by beaten lengths and not the clock. Several ordinary horses THAT DAY ran past the mile mark only 2-3points slower than Frosted, none of them are near the TG neg -2 or -3 range.

[TGJB]

Uhhhh... what?

Just on time, unadjusted for weight, ground or variant, there\'s not another race at a mile or over that goes in a time/figure within 4 points. He went more than 2 seconds faster than Carina Mia.

And yes, the track did slow down a little as the day went on, not just for that race. And there was some wind, which can make a difference with that long a straightaway.

[TGJB]

And? Your point?

Listen, I like those guys, what they sell is good value for the money. But a) there\'s a reason people pay $25 per track for ours, and b) what you see there is a function of using claiming pars, as I\'ve explained before.

[miff]

In deep water re updated pars and updated parallel time charts being inferior to going off horses and backing into numbers.The track slowed later? Not according to time of the Belmont or the last race.

I\'ll leave it there.

[kencbs]

Hopefully I can remember this when Mohaymen goes in the Travers