Mark Casse Barn

[Wrongly]

Have to ask, what\'s up?  He\'s what 1 for his last 50 starters.  Did I miss something?

[Silver Charm]

A lot of the horses have been agressively spotted. It\'s Belmont Day so let\'s send 10 horses up there. Ran a bunch of horses Preakness Day. And often 2 in the same race.

[sekrah]

Don\'t disagree with the aggressive spots, but last spring it seemed like every horse he entered moved up and won.  Complete opposite this year.

[jerry]

1) The question isn\'t if they\'re winning. It\'s if they\'re running to their number.

2) it seems like he\'s handling many more horses than he had prior to his BC victory last year.

[richiebee]

To all \"Experts\" who contributed to this string:

You are all guilty of offering opinions, anecdotes, conjecture and speculation
when STATISTICAL INFORMATION is available. This is why Jimbo is such a valuable
asset around here, and why I hope he continues to post-- in the middle of yet
another tedious \"Wide Mikey\" string, Jimbo pointed out that there is actually a TG
stat which measures whether Mike Smith rides closer to the inner rail or the
outside fence.

Facts, statistics, history... the more we manage to squeeze in, the more
enlightened the discourse will be. To the one poster who seemed to think that
Casse had taken on more horses than he had last year, why not buttress this by
citing the fact that Casse had \"x\" starters through May of 2015 as opposed to \"y\"
starters through May of 2016?

All major racetracks have websites, and these websites have at the bare minimum
some form of trainer statistics. A brief perusal of said websites shows the
following:

Mark Casse by the Numbers:

Belmont:       6 winners from 44 starters.
Churchill:    18 winners from 53 starters.
Gulfstream:   13 winners from 83 starters.
Woodbine:     18 winners from 131 starters.

Total:        55 winners from 311 starters, win percentage 17+. Possible that
there was a \"1 for 50\" slump in the middle of this? Possible but unlikely. If
someone was to investigate this 1 for 50 (?) slump, or any other trainer or
jockey\'s recent record, a look at off odds is suggested: If the average off odds
on the 50 runners was under 4/1, it would be much more telling than if the average
off odds were somewhat higher.

Oh, and since this is the Thorograph board, Casse\'s \"last 90 day\" line shows a win
percentage of 18%, with 23% tops and 40% pairs. [Recurring suggestion for the
braintrust on Varick Street: I believe a \"last 30 day\" or \"last 45 day\" stat might
be more helpful, though it would result in a smallish sample for some of the
smaller barns.]

My opinion based on above statistics: Mark Casse is doing OK, no need to take up a
collection for him. If indeed he is in the midst of an awful slump, lets see the
numbers...

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> To all \"Experts\" who contributed to this string:
>
> You are all guilty of offering opinions,
> anecdotes, conjecture and speculation
> when STATISTICAL INFORMATION is available. This is
> why Jimbo is such a valuable
> asset around here, and why I hope he continues to
> post-- in the middle of yet
> another tedious \"Wide Mikey\" string, Jimbo pointed
> out that there is actually a TG
> stat which measures whether Mike Smith rides
> closer to the inner rail or the
> outside fence.
>

Where would someone find this stat?

[Furious Pete]

Jockey Profile. Path.

[Wrongly]

Richee

Fact, going into Saturday Casse was 1-4-3 with his last 45 starters in North America.

[richiebee]

Wrongly:

Now we are getting somewhere!

[dodie]

Fact:  Casse shipped Tepin to Royal Ascot last week to win the Queen Anne.

[Wrongly]

Since June 11th Casse has 2 wins from 70 starters in North America. Lady Vision at Woodbine was the lone winner this weekend.

[Ill-bred]

Casse is 23-for-169 (14%) the last 30 days at all North American tracks, per DRF Formulator. ROI is $.85

Definitely has been in a bit of a slump, considering the stock he has and past record.

[richiebee]

Outstanding work Wrongly. The facts apparently ARE out there. Now let some of the responders \"fact up.\"

Not factual but nonetheless reality, trainers sending out winners a) run out of conditions/move horses up the ladder and/or must carry weight based on recent success, one reason for hot cold cycles.

At NYRA, TAP currently below or at 20% (he\'s Brown with envy, I\'m sure) and Rudy Rod at about  10%, no surprise since NYRA carding more than 50% turf races.

[RICH]

in addition

13-43 with favorites 32%
18-60 less than 3-1
1-36 over 8-1
0-7 over 20-1

[RICH]

that\'s for last 30 days