Late Pick4 at Gulf

[Leamas57]

Did anyone see the late P-4 payout at Gulf today?  Three of them 3-1 and one 7-2. Big enough fields, too.  $31?   This has to be some elephant hitting it a thousand times.

Leamas

[belmont3]

Check your data

6.00, 9.20, 4.00 3.00
That is 2-1, 7/2, 1-1 and 1-2
About $20 for a .50 parlay

[Leamas57]

I understand the first race, but this elicits the question: do the morning line odds after that make a better gauge?

Leamas

[Mathcapper]

Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I understand the first race, but this elicits the
> question: do the morning line odds after that make
> a better gauge?

No, the final win odds are by far the best gauge of the payoffs in the multis.

As belmont3 noted, the $.50 parlay came in at around $20 ($20.70 to be precise). The takeout at GP is 20% for the Pick 4 and 17% in the Win pool. Since you only get hit with the takeout once in the Pick 4, the expected payout for the Pick 4 at GP is (1-.20)/(1-.17)^4 = 1.68 times the parlay, or $34.78 in this case, which was pretty close to actual $31.45 payout.

There are instances when the morning line does seem to come into play, like when a horse that\'s 15-1 ML goes off at 3-1, such horses tend to be a little higher in the multis than their win odds, but those are more the exception rather than the rule.

Rocky R.

[Leamas57]

Thanks, Rocky.

I like the way the payout plays into it over the series.

Leamas