Saratoga Pick 6

[jp702006]

After studying the tgraph data, I\'m going to give the pick 6 a swing tomorrow on an extremely cheap ticket.
6) 2.Fastest horse on paper.
7) 2.Captain obvious.
1,5,9,10. I\'m sure many will lean to the 5, but the 1 is just as fast.
9) 3,6,7. I think the toughest race on the card. You could make a reasonable argument for any of the entries. I\'ll look for a price.
10) 3,5. Destin scares me, but KMac is hot and the Gov owes me some serious money from the Belmont.
11) 1. Fastest horse in the race.......on dirt. Let\'s see if he can repeat that fig on turf. $48 for shits and giggles. I will back up with a few pick 4\'s. Good luck tomorrow.

Patrick

[mjellish]

I\'ve went through this every which way from Sunday and can\'t come up with a play I like.  Flintshire looks too tough to play against and will be a single on the majority of tickets.  And if Mohaymen runs like the rest of Kiaran\'s barn has run off a layoff he is going to be right there in the Jim Dandy too, but you probably can\'t single him confidently.  The Vanderbilt is also tough to sort out, although if the rail is gold (which it may be but we won\'t have enough info to tell for sure until it is too late) the 3 horse should be tough if he fires.

I\'m just going to put in a small ticket with no backups to the B horses rather than play seriously vs the big syndicates.  I don\'t want to get called out by Jimbo again, so I\'m not giving myself a percentage chance to win.  Let\'s just say it isn\'t very good, but the play as is could offer some value if I can get by race 8 with a pretty weak single.  Going to use the 3 in the Vanderbilt and also the Weaver horse as he is fresh, paired his 3 year old top in his 4 yr old debut and may move forward while a few of these others may bounce.  Going to single Mohaymen too.  Bookend with All and hope for the best.  


All
2
1
3,7
3
All

[TGJB]

Boy did we have different views of this one. You spread where I was tight and were tight where I spread out. And I didn\'t use Requite, despite playing a much bigger ticket.

[mjellish]

Actually Jerry, I bet we had similar opinions other than the Weaver horse in the Vandy.  But I decided I wasn\'t going to play this sequence seriously.  The 2 and 8 were strong on TG in the 6th and I think you could have covered 70% of the race with those two, but I spread there hoping for a price.  So far that hasn\'t worked out so good for me.  Now i have a single that I don\'t have a lot of confidence in.

For me, if I\'m not going to make a serious play at this, I\'m either going to pass or put in a ticket that spreads where others are probably narrow.  Only way to do that is to take a few chances.

I only have $352 in this.  I did make a stronger Pick 4 play.

[jimbo66]

After your bad beat yesterday, I wasn\'t going to make a comment MJ

U made me feel shameful for brooding for 2 hours over $4 pick-4s to the 4-6-8-9-10 that race where I was SURE the 9 was going by.....

Saratoga a tough meet.  Only takes a week or so to realize that....

Good luck

Jim

[mjellish]

No reason to feel shameful Jimbo.  The Pick 4 will pays, I thought, were very generous given how the rest of the sequence went.  I still have the will pays written down from when I was already counting my money.  You\'re ticket didn\'t have to cost much and you were alive for

4 $2180
6 $4088
8 dunno I didn\'t have
9 $3116
10 $2736

Probably the difference between a profitable day and non.  Sorry the 5 beat you too.  Guessing you didn\'t hedge as there was too much to cover.  Don\'t feel bad though.  I also had the Pick 5 payoffs to work with and was in a much better position to hedge than you, but I didn\'t.

JB has to be alive in the Pick 6 along with everyone else who took a decent swing at it.  I figure he has the next one covered easy unless the 2 or 6 win.  Hopefully he hits something worthwhile in the last.

[SoCalMan2]

Question is this: in big carryover days -- do syndicates cover chalky combinations extra times to cover themselves in case the sequence comes in all chalk?  On one hand, covering combos seems so hard, that it is a waste to spend money that could be used to cover an extra combo on doubling up a chalkfest combo.  However, if you are betting $50k........and it is looking like some combinations will only pay $1k or $2k do you load up more on those combos to protect yourself in case those come in or do you just look at it like a chalkfest is as good as a loss anyway?  If you do not balk up on the chalky combos, then it seems to me that chalky combos will end up being underbet......and could surprise on upside on payout.  Is that a correct analysis or am i missing something?

We may find out answer on this today.....this sequence is pretty chalky so far -- Fav, Fav (1-10), 2nd Choice, 3rd Choice....with only two more races left.

[Boscar Obarra]

I\'d think, since an All chalky p6 would contain a limited number of horses (no more than 2 in a race) then it would not cost much to play those extra times. Otherwise, for a big play, having it only once is nearly the same as not hitting it at all, which some folks might not have a problem with, and others might find annoying

[Mathcapper]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Question is this: in big carryover days -- do
> syndicates cover chalky combinations extra times
> to cover themselves in case the sequence comes in
> all chalk?  On one hand, covering combos seems so
> hard, that it is a waste to spend money that could
> be used to cover an extra combo on doubling up a
> chalkfest combo.  However, if you are betting
> $50k........and it is looking like some
> combinations will only pay $1k or $2k do you load
> up more on those combos to protect yourself in
> case those come in or do you just look at it like
> a chalkfest is as good as a loss anyway?  If you
> do not balk up on the chalky combos, then it seems
> to me that chalky combos will end up being
> underbet......and could surprise on upside on
> payout.  Is that a correct analysis or am i
> missing something?

SoCal -

I think the general thinking is indeed that on big carryover days (traditional Pk6) and mandatory payout days (jackpot Pk6), the whales/syndicates spread as deep as possible to maximize their chances of getting a piece of the  giant pot of “free” money, which, like you say, would mean that favorites by definition would be underbet in the sequence, and that chalky combinations should therefore pay more than expected.

However, I’ve looked at hundreds of results over the years, and in general, I see the exact opposite. Looking at the combinations that have paid less than expected (based on the win parlay, adjusted for takeout), they tend to cluster mostly around the chalkiest combinations (along with some of the extremely long combinations).

We saw this last May in the Rainbow 6. On the mandatory payout day, the sequence was pretty chalky ($.20 parlay = $512), and the payout was only $679, even though it was expected to pay $1,580 because of all the “free” jackpot money in the pool that day. On the next day, with no mandatory payout, the parlay was almost identical ($.20 parlay = $506), yet the payout was $2,518, almost 4 times more than the payout on the mandatory payout day(!), even though the expectation was 30% less ($1,103) because there was no free jackpot money (note: part of the reason it paid so much on the non-mandatory payout day was due to the dead money created by the jackpot chasers, as I’ve posted about).

One can only speculate as to why the payouts tend to come in light for chalky sequences on many of the carryover/mandatory payout days. It’s been postulated, as you’ve inquired about, that the whales/syndicates punch out multiple tickets on chalky combinations, and that’s certainly possible. I’m not sure this is the case though, since as you stated and I tend to agree with, this would lessen their chances of hitting what could be a potential bonanza.

My guess is that it’s the little fish, the ones with the smaller bankrolls that are trying to scrape together limited tickets, that are causing the tendency for underlaid payouts on chalky sequences. When there’s all that free money in the pool, little fish are likely jumping in the pool with 2x2x2x2x2x2-type combinations that are likely comprised almost entirely of short-priced favorites, which could be creating situations where the favorites are actually overbet in the sequence, rather than being underbet, as one might intuitively think.

Rocky R.

[SoCalMan2]

Mathcapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Question is this: in big carryover days -- do
> > syndicates cover chalky combinations extra
> times
> > to cover themselves in case the sequence comes
> in
> > all chalk?  On one hand, covering combos seems
> so
> > hard, that it is a waste to spend money that
> could
> > be used to cover an extra combo on doubling up
> a
> > chalkfest combo.  However, if you are betting
> > $50k........and it is looking like some
> > combinations will only pay $1k or $2k do you
> load
> > up more on those combos to protect yourself in
> > case those come in or do you just look at it
> like
> > a chalkfest is as good as a loss anyway?  If
> you
> > do not balk up on the chalky combos, then it
> seems
> > to me that chalky combos will end up being
> > underbet......and could surprise on upside on
> > payout.  Is that a correct analysis or am i
> > missing something?
>
> SoCal -
>
> I think the general thinking is indeed that on big
> carryover days (traditional Pk6) and mandatory
> payout days (jackpot Pk6), the whales/syndicates
> spread as deep as possible to maximize their
> chances of getting a piece of the  giant pot of
> “free” money, which, like you say, would mean that
> favorites by definition would be underbet in the
> sequence, and that chalky combinations should
> therefore pay more than expected.
>
> However, I’ve looked at hundreds of results over
> the years, and in general, I see the exact
> opposite. Looking at the combinations that have
> paid less than expected (based on the win parlay,
> adjusted for takeout), they tend to cluster mostly
> around the chalkiest combinations (along with some
> of the extremely long combinations).
>
> We saw this last May in the Rainbow 6. On the
> mandatory payout day, the sequence was pretty
> chalky ($.20 parlay = $512), and the payout was
> only $679, even though it was expected to pay
> $1,580 because of all the “free” jackpot money in
> the pool that day. On the next day, with no
> mandatory payout, the parlay was almost identical
> ($.20 parlay = $506), yet the payout was $2,518,
> almost 4 times more than the payout on the
> mandatory payout day(!), even though the
> expectation was 30% less ($1,103) because there
> was no free jackpot money (note: part of the
> reason it paid so much on the non-mandatory payout
> day was due to the dead money created by the
> jackpot chasers, as I’ve posted about).
>
> One can only speculate as to why the payouts tend
> to come in light for chalky sequences on many of
> the carryover/mandatory payout days. It’s been
> postulated, as you’ve inquired about, that the
> whales/syndicates punch out multiple tickets on
> chalky combinations, and that’s certainly
> possible. I’m not sure this is the case though,
> since as you stated and I tend to agree with, this
> would lessen their chances of hitting what could
> be a potential bonanza.
>
> My guess is that it’s the little fish, the ones
> with the smaller bankrolls that are trying to
> scrape together limited tickets, that are causing
> the tendency for underlaid payouts on chalky
> sequences. When there’s all that free money in the
> pool, little fish are likely jumping in the pool
> with 2x2x2x2x2x2-type combinations that are likely
> comprised almost entirely of short-priced
> favorites, which could be creating situations
> where the favorites are actually overbet in the
> sequence, rather than being underbet, as one might
> intuitively think.
>
> Rocky R.

Thank you very much, Rocky!  Time, effort, and thoughts very much appreciated.