Are Horses Getting Better

James Quinn has an excellent article in this week\'s Simulcast Weekly from the DRF about whether or not the horse\'s of today (like Smarty Jones, Mining) are better than horses like Afirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid.

I happen to agree with Quinn (sorry TGJB) that speed figures alone do not measure the performace or ability of a horse.

Speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran, but they are influenced by pace, race development, and more importantly the  competitiveness of the contest etc...

Many horses can run fast when loose or not tested to their limits of brilliance, stamina, willingness, determination etc...

There\'s an old saying.

\"It\'s not how fast they run, it\'s how they run fast.\"

IMHO, final time happens to be the most important component in measuring ability, but it isn\'t the only one....hence my handle \"classhandicapper\".

Smarty Jones is a dynamite horse, but he has yet to prove he is in the same class as Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid or Secretariat despite his figures.

[Bham41]

Kudos  Also Smarty\'s best performance was a second time lasik trip.  What is his average Beyer compared to the others that weren\'t or even if they were second time lasik users.  Maybe why lots of the morning line odds are so out of kilter.  Is there a compensation factor for consistency.

[bdhsheets]

Though Smarty suffered a traumatic head injury that inluded his eye socket, I doubt he had lasik surgery once let alone twice. ;-)

[bdhsheets]

classhandicapper wrote:


\"James Quinn has an excellent article in this week\'s Simulcast Weekly from the DRF about whether or not the horse\'s of today (like Smarty Jones, Mining) are better than horses like Afirmed, Seattle Slew, Secretariat, and Spectacular Bid.\"

Trying to compare horses [or human athletes for that matter] from different eras is a waste of time. No one can truly prove their point. The variables and todays quantum advances in sports medicine are too great not to make a difference.

\"I happen to agree with Quinn (sorry TGJB) that speed figures alone do not measure the performace or ability of a horse.\"

Why didn\'t you at least paraphrase what \"self annoited class expert\" Quinn had to say? You agree to what?

\"Speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran, but they are influenced by pace, race development, and more importantly the competitiveness of the contest etc...\"

Speed figures can almost instantly tell you the competitiveness of a race. Do you have a crystal ball that will tell you how a race will develop? Which trainer has decided to change tactics with their horse and above all, which pace line is most representative of a horses true ability?

\"Many horses can run fast when loose or not tested to their limits of brilliance, stamina, willingness, determination etc...\"

That\'s true of horses of all eras and the point is what exactly?

\"There\'s an old saying.

\"It\'s not how fast they run, it\'s how they run fast.\" \"

Again, the same thing was true 50 years ago as today and again, the point being what exactly?


\"IMHO, final time happens to be the most important component in measuring ability, but it isn\'t the only one....hence my handle \"classhandicapper\".\"

Then you must think the best sprinters on the planet populate Turf Paradise, Albuquerque where the final times crush anything run at Churchill, New York etc.........

I\'ll take the 10k runner with the better figs over the 25k runner who has been running slower and I\'ll cash far more tiks than you.

Class \'capping in early 3yo races is silliness to say the least. Most 3yo Graded Stakes this time of year are littered with entry level, NWROTMC, NW2r allowance types. Again I\'ll take the 3yo alw horse running the better figs vs the \"classy one\" who\'s running slower.

\"Smarty Jones is a dynamite horse, but he has yet to prove he is in the same class as Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid or Secretariat despite his figures.\"

You\'re absolutely correct. Smarty just may be in a class by himself. 8 wins at 8 different distances at 5 different tracks. Again, there is no way to quantify exactly who is best. Perhaps Secretariat, Affirmed etc would\'ve run better figs had they been part of the new sports medicine, but we\'ll never know, will we?

Later,

>Speed figures can almost instantly tell you the competitiveness of a race.<

My main disagreement is with the above statement.

Here\'s the difference.

One horse runs a -3 by easily getting a stalking position behind a horse that has never won a Grade I race and is suspect at the distance. He moves by him with little resistance and then pulls away unchallenged from a field of horses that has never won a Grade I race.

Another horse runs a -3 after being used fairly hard to get his stalking position. He engages the leader after resisiting a challenge from another Grade I stalker on the outside. The leader is a multiple Grade I winner that routinely earns impressive figures in his Grade I wins and is very sharp lately. They battle furiously for 3/16 of a mile in a rapid time before the stalker gains the advantage. At the eight pole several late bids come from multiple Grade I winners that are closers. He repulses their bids and earns a -3.

The second horse ran the much better race even though their figures are identical.  It\'s not exactly quantifiable (for those that use mathematics to an extreme), but it is as close to certain as you can get in horseracing.  

The higher up the ladder you go, the more stamina, acceleration, determination, racing reserves, competitiveness, and other intangibles the horses tend to have. That generally makes for greater demands on the horses to get, maintain, and improve their position during a race.  

IMO, speed figures remain the most important tangibile measurement of throrougbred ability, but they do not include the intangibles. You can only get at that via subjective means. You must ALSO look at the
quality and depth of a field and how the race developed to know how well a horse actually ran.  

Smiley is running fast and is clearly a very good horse, but he isn\'t battling Alydar for 5/8 of mile and holding off other top horses. He isn\'t dueling/stalking champion caliber speed horses in fast fractions that offer tremendous resistance when he comes. There are no multiple Grade winners coming at him late.  

His current speed figures \"alone\" are not a true measurement of his current ability.

He will likely continue to move forward and he certainly will get tested by older horses later in the year. However, IMO if you threw him into a full field with several Grade I winners that usually run -1 and -2, his -3 or so would not be good enough. His figure would \"tend\" to drop because of the higher quality (class) of the competitors and the greater demands they would place on him.

I think today\'s Grade I races are extremely watered down compared to those of the late 70s and early 80s. There are more options (purse wise) for top horses so they avoid each other. I think that is one factor contributing to the better figures being earned by some of the top horses.

I think this year\'s 3yo crop is a little weak other than Smarty. That is allowing him to have an easy time of it at every stage and contributing to his excellent figures.



Post Edited (05-26-04 14:17)

[jimbo66]

Your email is harsh and way too simple to be accurate.  Of course speed figures are an important key in handicapping, but they aren\'t the only factor.  If they were, I would assume that T-Graph would pick 75% winners or highers, since I am sure you believe they make the best figures.  But they don\'t pick that high of a percentage of winners. Nobody does.  Class plays a role.  Pace scenarios certainly play a role.  Trip handicapping, especially on turf plays a role.  

Your point about raw time being irrelevant would certainly be agreed with by 80% of serious horse players.  But I also have trouble with some of the T-Graph figures.  Specifically a post by JB that says Smarty is the fastest 3-year old since T-Graph has been making figures and likely the fastest of all time.  I might be slightly off on the exact wording on the second half of that, but I don\'t care how much ground loss T-Graph factors in, Secretariat smashed the track record in all three triple crown races.  Forget about the incorrect time they post for him in the Preakness, he broke that record too.  I have trouble with a \"figure\" that suggests that SJ is a superior horse to Secretariat, off of what he has done so for.  Not to mention that it seems that SJ\'s Preakness was 7 points better than Silver Charm\'s Preakness?  Gimme a break.  So, if they ran against each other in that race, SJ wins by 15 or more lengths?  No. Something is wrong with that logic. It is logic like this that prevents me from being a fulltime sheets user.

[pgsheets]

...but sheet guys may argue that the regression that follows is due not to race conditions or pace scenario, but rather to the effects of the previous effort on the horse. The end result may be the same oipinion as the class handicapper, but the route is different.

Did War Emblem lose the Belmont because he stumbled and failed to get the lead, which took him out of his confort zone or did he get trounced because the 4 previous efforts finally took their toll on him physically.  Had he stumble in his Illinois Derby or the Preakness, would he have had the muscle response and energy available to overcome it ?

Many of us went into his Belmont and Funny Cides Belmont expecting both to fail regardless of the start or scenario.

From a figure / sheet perspective, I consider horses sitting on top efforts capable of producing regardless of the scenario.  
Could Purge stalk off the pace 4 wide in hand on a day when he was likely to regress ?
If he runs in the Belmont and regresses ( of which neither will occur IMO ), will it be because he\'s in with the \'great\' SJ, or because he may be bouncy.

Might as well watch a dog chase his tail.

That\'s just my opinion.....

[pgsheets]

Jimbo66,

I second that emotion !!!

Secretariat or Smarty Jones ?
Seattle Slew or Smarty Jones ?
Affirmed or SJ ?

and on and on 8 more times !

I agree with you completely.

Built into my opinion about the impact of class on figures is the assumption \"all else being equal\".

jimbo66,

I think the T-Graph figures are the best available. I would prefer they were made a little differently (like excluding the ground lost in the figure and just giving me that information next to the figure - like a trip note).

The way it is now, I back out ground lost to the best of my ability.

I would prefer it my way because I make subjective judgements about biases and trips. I believe losing ground in a fast fraction is a lot tougher on a horse than losing ground in a slow fraction. I also sometimes think it is to a horse\'s advantage to be outside.

Be that as it may, I think some of the fluctuations in figures that don\'t seem to make sense are of the variety I have been talking about where the pace and race competitiveness impact the final time and figure.

Others are the form cycle variety.

Still others are accuracy issues. No matter how good Jerry is, even he would probably admit there are occasional races/days that are WAY more difficult to make accurate figures for.



Post Edited (05-26-04 14:57)

[pgsheets]

Then why not just use Beyers.
That\'s a straight figure excluding ground loss.
Make your own weight variant if you believe necessary and whala.

[HP]

Gertrude Stein said

\"A rose is a rose is a rose.\"

HP says

\"A -3 is a -3 is a -3.\"

If a horse ran around the track BY HIMSELF and ran a -3, he\'s run EXACTLY the same speed as a horse that runs a -3 in a race. It doesn\'t matter WHAT the pace scenario is.

In my opinion, Classhandicapper is confusing a \"better race\" with a \"faster race.\" In his examples, a horse that runs a -3, repels multiple challenges and continues on to win is running a \"better race\" than a horse that runs a -3 all by himself. I can\'t argue with this since it is a totally subjective judgement. Aesthetically, he may be correct, and the race he describes as \"better\" may be more impressive visually. However, both horses are EQUALLY FAST as per their speed figures.

\"Smarty is running fast and is clearly a very good horse, but he isn\'t battling Alydar for 5/8 of mile.\"

Alydar was a great horse, but not as fast as Lion Heart at this stage in their respective careers. Smarty and Lion Heart went at it pretty good in the Derby.

\"His (Smarty Jones) current speed figures \"alone\" are not a true measurement of his current ability.\"

O yes they are. His figures are hands down the best of all the 3yos and he\'s been absolutely walloping them. Seems like a pretty good correlation to me.

\"He will likely continue to move forward...\"

I would totally disagree. The odds are that these huge efforts will take their toll down the road (how many hotshot Triple Crown 3yos have been around in the big fall races in the last few years?). I don\'t see Smarty as the exception to this trend. I\'ll be betting against him at 3/5 in the Belmont too. The Belmont is a good race to see a great horse finally poop out at a short price. Happens...often.

\"I think this year\'s 3yo crop is a little weak other than Smarty. That is allowing him to have an easy time of it at every stage and contributing to his excellent figures.\"

This makes no sense at all. If he\'s having \"an easy time of it\" how the hell is he running so fast? If he was having an easy time, wouldn\'t he be running slower (i.e. JUST fast enough to beat the slower horses?). YOU CAN\'T RUN AN EASY -3! There is no such thing.

According to TG, Smarty Jones may be the fastest 3yo ever. Nothing has happened on the track to dispel this or cast any doubt on the figures. He was supposed to romp and he has. Give the horse credit. Alydar and Affirmed didn\'t run against horses who could run zeros over nine panels.

Now everyone can go on about how Lion Heart is a quitter, etc. Some weak crop. There were like eight horses in the Derby who had run under 2. Old heroes die hard. Back to work. HP

[miff]

classhandicapper,I make the same adjustments re groung loss especially when looking at Belmont where the rail is often dead and the outside paths have  a HUGH advantage.The correct adjustment would be to penalize a horse for being wide on that type of track, rather than give him some form of Credit in making his figure.

[Silver Charm]

>\"No matter how good Jerry is, even he would probably admit there are occasional races/days that are WAY more difficult to make accurate figures for.\"

That is why he reserves the right to use a BOX on an occasional race.

Others make up a number, you be the judge which way is better.

[pgsheets]

HP,

All you need to do as add the part about them running in lanes with curtains and I\'d swear I was listening to Lenny and Lenny....

And while your at it,  keep up the good work.