Are Horses Getting Better

>That is why he reserves the right to use a BOX on an occasional race. Others make up a number, you be the judge which way is better.<

Definitely better.

I would use it a lot more often though. :-)

For example. I\'d use it a lot more often when the pace was faster or slower than appropriate for a specific horse. I would be especially careful to not use a separate variant to compensate for pace issues as is probably sometimes the case.

For example:

I think Smiley\'s duel with Purge took something out of both horses - but it defintely took more out of Purge because he isn\'t as good. The second speed often runs a subpar figure if he\'s not as good as the primary speed. That was no bounce and recovery. NO freakin way anyone can convince me of that.



Post Edited (05-26-04 15:46)

We obvoiusly disagree on everything. LOL

I am not confusing better with faster. I am trying to make sure everyone else is not.

It is true that a -3 is a -3, but the issue I am discussing is whether Smarty\'s -3 makes him better than some other horses that haven\'t run as fast.

I say NO because the depth and quality of this crop - especially at this time - is not nearly as good as some other horses have faced when they put up slower figures.

As to him moving forward, I wasn\'t being specific to the Belmont and I was assuming he would be handled properly. If he is, then I would argue the evidence is overwhelming that a spring time 3YO would tend to be running better figures in the fall.

If you think running past Lion Heart on the second turn of a 10 furlong race (or thereabouts) is as tough as going at it with Alydar for a few furlongs at any stage, we will have to stop the conversation now.  

>easy time<

He is not being used anywhere near the full depth of his brilliance and stamina in the early, mid, or early late stages of the races. These other horses are incapable of doing so because they are much weaker. If he was being tested to that depth as he would in truly high quality field, his final time would slow.



Post Edited (05-26-04 15:49)

[Silver Charm]

>I would use it a lot more often though. :-)

Tough call there.

As a paying Customer you want the numbers so you can wager, but you also want GOOD NUMBERS.

[HP]

\"If he was being tested to that depth, his final time would slow.\"

How do you know he wouldn\'t run faster? If the pace was faster, the final time might be faster too.

You are welcome to your emotional attachment to Alydar, but the figures say Lion Heart is faster (didn\'t say better!) and I\'ll go with the figs. HP

>As a paying Customer you want the numbers so you can wager, but you also want GOOD NUMBERS.<

I guess I was hinting that there are more suspect numbers out there than any figure maker would be willing to admit to. :-)

>How do you know he wouldn\'t run faster? If the pace was faster, the final time might be faster too.<

You may be correct.

IMO, the depth of a horse\'s reserves are sometimes not revealed until he faces better competition. You see that sometimes as lightly raced allowance horses move up the ladder. Take a look at any Pletcher horse.
:-)

I made a faulty leap of faith in assuming that Smarty wouldn\'t run a -5 if he faced a group of legitimate Grade I horses that would test him.  

I guess what I am saying is that based on his -3 (or so) and Beyer 118, almost everyone thinks Smarty is a better horse than some of the outstanding ones of the past.

I do not believe that is true at this time.

He is highly deserving of a triple crown, but I believe he is beating up on a group that was highly suspect at 10 furlongs, inexperienced, failed in the mud at CD, just plain mediocre etc....

[HP]

I think Smarty is very good. I can compare him to War Emblem and Funny Cide and say that he stands a better chance of completing the triple than those two, but that\'s as far as I go. I cannot account for the hysteria of the fans or the racing press!

I\'m only adding to this because you brought up Pletcher. Does he really develop horses? He reminds me more and more of Frankel. Pletcher is very consistent and enters his horses in good spots. They come out and run, they keep running, but they don\'t really make any progress figure-wise in a campaign. To sum up, not many bounces and not much progress.

I had high hopes for Pollard\'s Vision in the Derby and I\'ll be curious to see what happens with him.

Just bear in mind when you read this that I keyed Invisible Ink in that Derby and I still lost. Others may be a lot better than me at this stuff. HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper said

>Smiley is running fast and is clearly a very good horse, but he isn\'t battling Alydar for 5/8 of mile and holding off other top horses. He isn\'t dueling/stalking champion caliber speed horses in fast fractions that offer tremendous resistance when he comes. There are no multiple Grade winners coming at him late.

He meant to say \"Smarty\" but thats not the issue.

I think much more highly of Lion Heart than class. He fought bravely against Imperialism in the San Rafael, The Cliffs Edge in the Bluegrass and Smarty in the Derby. Purge fought bravely in the Rebel. In the Rebel and Derby Smarty stalked good horses running good races. The problem has been that Smarty has had too much for the others late in the race. He\'s been a stalker and the closers have not been in a position to close and take him on after the pace battle. Smarty is accellerating away from the off pace horses late in the race. A hot pace could set up the multiple challenge scenario that classhandipper suggested but its not the fault of the other 3 yr olds that it hasn\'t occurred. Who are you gonna throw at Smarty to beat him in that scenario? Sinister G? Value Plus? Lion Heart? Frisky Spider? Keep in mind Lion Heart opened up some in the Derby and Smarty rated and came on to mow him down. I think theres some good horses in this crop, but unless someone throws a rabbit in the race Smarty\'s pace style and his ability to relax is a great weapon. I\'m not even sure the rabbits are gonna matter.

Greatness is another issue. For Smarty to be considered Great he\'ll have to win the Belmont. He\'ll have to beat the best of the handicap horses and he\'ll have to prevail in a tight contest. To this point hes been unchallenged. A track record would also put him in the very best company. If he were my horse, I\'d retire him after the Belmont, despite the chance at eternity.

>He meant to say \"Smarty\" but thats not the issue. <

Thanks.  What was I thinking?  :-)

>classhandicapper,I make the same adjustments re groung loss especially when looking at Belmont where the rail is often dead and the outside paths have a HUGH advantage.The correct adjustment would be to penalize a horse for being wide on that type of track, rather than give him some form of Credit in making his figure.<

I\'m not sure there is a formula and that\'s why I generally object to purely mathematical approaches to estimating how well a horse ran. (especially when you are looking at 1/4 and 1/2 point moves and basing projections of future figures on them)

I back out all ground lost to get to an adjusted figure and then evaluate the entire trip (including bias) in a subjective manner). The end result is not a new number or specific measurement. It\'s more of  general view.

I use several sets of figures and compare them because I know that no one is perfect. However, I trust that Jerry\'s thinking on  speed figure matters is generally superior to Beyer\'s who may not even be looking at ground lost, weight etc... when trying to make his track variant etc...