Agree very strongly with the ROTW analysis this week. Which could be a real curse.
Have to think that the 10-1 ML is pure fantasy of the delusional linemaker the NYRA is employing. Also agree he is still a good bet at 5-1 he is likely to be.
My question is -- why is Irad Ortiz riding King Kreesa instead of this horse? I take great comfort in getting Castellano, but unless there is something else going on, that looks like a really questionable choice of Irad to me.
If the ML were reliable (which it is not), I would think that Reporting Star is a good use underneath in the deep exotics. Assuming he goes off at his usual price in G1s (avg off is 14.50-1), he is still quite usable underneath, but not nearly as sexy as at 20-1 or higher.
Although I think A Lot is the strongest horse in the race and doesn\'t need the help, I also view both Tourist and Ring Weekend as quite suspect.
Tourist\'s top two figs obviously would make him extremely tough, but he also ran those figs specifically second and third time off a layoff and wasn\'t able to replicate. Not a good recipe for today. Maybe the extra spacing was an attempt to avoid the bounce, but sometimes you just can\'t get around it.
As to Ring Weekend, he went wide both turns on a big dead rail day. What I wonder is -- shouldn\'t that fig have been better? Last time off the layoff, he ran a huge fig, won, and needed a year in between races. This time off the layoff, he ran a big fig (but 2 points off the last one) and was only able to run second on a day when he had everything his way given the dead rail and is now trying to come back on much less rest (but maybe enough). I think there is just as good a chance that he bounces than that he can pair up his last fig. Pairing up his last fig (which I think is more likely than moving forward) is not going to be good enough to beat A Lot.
If the ML is correct and Tourist and Ring Weekend take a lot of money and are favorite and second choice, there should be rich ways to hook up A Lot.
