Met Mile

[ronwar]

The Met Mile looks to be shaping up as a very interesting race. At 119 pounds, Strong Hope will be the co-highweight in the Met along with Pico Central. The race also includes Funny Cide (118), Azeri (117), Gygistar (115), Mobil (115), Bowman\'s Band (114), Eye of the Tiger (114), and Saarland (113).  I figure there should be some decent value.  Any early thoughts.

[twoshoes]

Bowman\'s Band.
Exacta with Strong Hope.

[jbelfior]

ronwar--

When run over a fast track,the Met Mile is usually won on or just off of the pace regardless of how demanding.

That being said, who has the best numbers while attending the early pace? I don\'t see the value unless someone storms from out of the clouds at a price to complete the exacta.  

I say STRONG HOPE stays the mile and maybe we get EYE OF THE TIGER or SAARLAND closing for second.

I\'m not touching this one since I\'ll be rooting (not wagering on) FUNNY CIDE.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Theres some good horses in it. Still need to review pace and current form but my initial thought might be in line with the others here. No one has given Azeri a call. I wonder if she\'s gonna be able to pick them up because I dont think she\'s gonna be on the lead.

[TGJB]

Met Mile is one of my favorite races, maybe my favorite, and often falls on my birthday (also Joe Namath\'s and Clint Eastwood\'s), like this year. I\'m going to do it for ROTW, and it is a very good betting race.

[magicnight]

And the old dog Eastwood has the best knees of the three of ya.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well Happy Birthday Jerry...

heres to hoping u get ur met mile wish! I\'ll definitely tune in for T-Graphs perspective on the race. Maybe we shuld make this one a very public consideration to try and ensure Jerry gets his birthday gift. Not that he needs our insight...lol

My last big met mile was Exciting Story. I don\'t think I\'ve done well on the race since then.

[TGJB]

Yeah, I had everything when the Canadian horse won-- win, exacta, tri. That was a good one.

[rezlegal]

Happy birthday TGJB. Just remember-you\'re not getting older, your getting....on 2d thought you\'re just getting older. Love and kisses. Resnik

[TGJB]

Jeez, if I knew everybody was gonna make a fuss I would never have brought it up. I stopped celebrating them a while back-- when the day comes I keep to myself and start drinking early and often.

But I don\'t start until after all the stakes have been run.

[P-Dub]

And I thought it was cool that I shared a birthday with Jimi Hendrix (Nov 27). Wake up to Voodoo Child once a year.............and a few other things.

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

Happy Birthday and I second that thought on the Met Mile being one of my favorites. Never been a successful betting spot for me but it seems like it was the kick start for summer racing in New York.

Remember Garthorn always been one of my favorite names.

As far as Azeri goes, well who knows but there is a little history with Lukas, Day and a Filly. They ran Ladys Secret in it several years back and she almost pulled it off. She didn\'t get collared until real late with Day \"goosing\" her all the way down the lane.

Be curious your extrapolation of Azeri\'s regular numbers with the weights at say 127 and now when she drops down to 117. If she were to run her regular NEG 1 (with 127)won\'t she be running, from a timewise point of view, a little faster all other things being equal (ie-ground loss, variants). So it might be like a NEG 3 because of the 10 pound drop in weights. I get dizzy thinking about it.

One final note JB, you are still THE MAN, always have and always will be.

Happy Birthday.

[TGJB]

Appreciate the compliment, but I\'m still going to sentence you to listening to the intro seminar again. The weight for previous races is already factored into the figure-- all you have to concern yourself with is the amount of weight spotted or received today. I have to say, over the years this is the concept that has proven the hardest to explain. And obviously we haven\'t done a good enough job.

[MO]

Happy Birthday Jerry and thanks to you, the Belmont P4 Friday paid a rediculously high $2,174.00!! Rouge was a mortal lock at even money, and Thunder showed the highest route figure (made a nice win bet to boot). Used the 3 fav\'s in the 2nd leg and the 2,3,13, 14 in the last. A rare trip to the track (for betting purposes)today coupled with Mr O\'Brien on Preakness card has turned out to make my year(so far). Cheers!

TGJB,

I haven\'t had any trouble undertanding the concept of how you handle weight, but I am curious as to what weight you use as the \"base weight\" for calculating your figures. (assuming that\'s how you do it)

For Example:

Suppose we have two races at 6F where the final time was identical and they ended in photo finishes (all else was exactly equal).

In race 1, the competitors carried 126 and 121.

In race 2, the competitors carried 111 and 106.

Is there some base poundage (like 116 for example) that you start with that you then adjust the speed figure up or down from to account for varied weights carried when you make the figures?

That would make the 126 best, 121 second best etc...  

So if they all raced again at the same weights as last time, they would again look equal at the weights.

If they all come in at level weights, the guy that carried 126 last time would correctly look best.