Chalk Eating Weasel Day

[FrankD.]

A beautiful day at the Spa, maybe 15,000 people tops and a card that didn\'t promise much allure or value. It certainly didn\'t disappoint! Irad wins 3, Jose wins 2, JJ grabs a couple, A $152 early pick 4, $1089 for a $2 pick 5. Heck even Jimbo came up with the $19.60 horse in the late pick 4 that came back $572. It was the only difference on our comparable tickets so I\'m glad my buddy avoided certain MUSH with us both on the same page.

Today was the day to act upon my meet long threat and join the public.The alternatives were truly non existent today so I rolled cashing 4 exacta\'s and a double with the biggest exotic price coming back $40.00 Woo Hoo, 20 more days like today and I can get back to par.

A couple of interesting stakes tomorrow and I\'m posting the first advanced conspiracy theory for the Saranac where Chad has 3 of the 7 horses. Fixed races do create long strings here. Give it a rest guys PLEASE.

Saranac:
 Camelot Kitten not only ruined the entire Thoro graph world on Derby Day but he ruined my Spa meet on August 5th by a nose. A beat that would have changed my wagering compass from South to North pretty much to the dollar!
I didn\'t use him at all in either of the above races, I will play him defensivily
here but take 2 good swings against him in horizontals and verticals. Even spotting weight the Kitten will pretty much run his number in our Chad, Chad world.
However: Call Provision and Inspector Lynley are both getting 6 lbs, aren\'t far off the magic number with weight and Lynley from the rail still hasn\'t got his Lemon Drop Kid 2 point 4 year old bump sitting on a pattern I love. If it was JJ as opposed to Rosario on him he may have been a single.

Woodward:
Frosted ran 5 negative numbers last year and 4 trips to the track this year are all below the Mendoza line. The monster Met Mile, 8 weeks rest, he came back and ran another numerical and visually impressive race. He\'s back in 4 weeks spots almost a point in weight to Shaman Ghost who drew the rail and gets first Lasix.
This is a totally different horse in Jimmy Jerkens barn as a 4 yr old and gets JJ from the rail. New top time for sure, will it be good enough? A neg 2 from the rail makes Frosted have to run an awfully good race to beat him. I\'ll bite at half the morning line and take out 80% of the horizontal tickets in the sequences.

It\'s STOMP on a chalk eating weasel day!!!!


Frank D.

[Fairmount1]

I am with you on Shaman Ghost here, rail, lasix, much improved figs since joining Jerkens barn.  If Frosted wins, I\'ll go find a tree as you say to bang my head into afterwards.

In the ROTW, no way Stone has the m/l close on the outside horse.  With two 90+ beyers showing on the page in his last two for even a no name 5-180 trainer, he will be 9-2 or so and I will use him despite the post with Ray\'s the Bar breaking through the 6 barrier instead of the also recommended Inspector.  Exacta box 5 and 7.      
 
Will you be investing in the inaugural NYRA late P5 tomorrow as part of your horizontal tickets?

[jimbo66]

Frank,

Have a feeling tomorrow is YOUR day.  Hit them hard.

Fairmount,

Of course Stone botched the morning line in the 5th, but not sure you pointed out the biggest mistake.  I will eat the racing form if Strike Midnight goes off second choice.  4th choice at best, will go off longer than Call Provision and Ray\'s the Bar for sure.  

To beat the dead dead horse, some can say the ML doesn\'t matter and we can adjust, but a lot of what was written in the ROTW is going to be a moot point because Stone can\'t do his job.  Strike Midnight, as 4th choice, with a chance for 1w/1w trip, isn\'t going to be a \"bet against\" at 6-1 or so.  (he was at 4-1).  Call Provision, likely second choice, and not near 6-1, becomes less value at what he actually goes off at.  And if Fairmount is right about Copingaway, then you certainly can\'t \"dutch\" win bets on the 2nd choice and Copinaway.

Personally, gonna toss CAmelot Kitten from my pick-5 and start from there.  Not forgiving him for ruining Frank D\'s meet (and hurting lots of TG users last time).

As for conspiracy theory stuff on this board about Flintshire, it is posts like those that make me think this game CAN be beat.  There are people playing in these pools that really believe the best grass horse in the country, by lengths, needed pre-planned help not only from his rabbit, but also from another unaffiliated top pilot, to ensure a ground saving trip so he could win.  As Miff would say \"brilliant\".

Good luck to all for last weekend at the meet.

Jim

[jerry]

Other than the 5th race, the only thing I\'d hit hard would be the bar. By my read there\'s not much value anywhere.

[FrankD.]

Fair,

Your time zone is an hour behind civilization, your also a day late on the inaugural pick 5. It started Friday with popularity handling 509K and not hurting the pick 4 handle of 451K within the normal weekday range above the 400K guarantee.

I\'m sure I\'ll be taking a stab....

[belmont3]

Fairmount,

Backyard has been calling your handicapping acumen into question.
After all, you misidentified the Sabrett connoissuer in the group photo.
That would have been Sean D., the \"Backyard Joey Chestnuts.\"

BTW, Sean D, after a brief stint at Albany Medical was the first to load in the Backyard starting gate Friday and, like Flintshire, brought a runningmate in daughter Kate.
Sean stated that the vets at Albany Medical prescribed a no red meat diverticulated diet. So, he switched from Hebrew Nationals to chicken tenders and fries.!!

Uncle Bill didn\'t seem to mind.

As to the ROTW, I can only offer observations but no real solid opinion.
In the TG intro material, TGJB always says, \"What do you like about this race?\"

From my viewpoint, we have a bunch of pretty fast and healthy 3 yos. 5 come off new lifetime tops and 2 pretty much paired.
Race shape, I think Copinway and Strike contest the pace and the balance position somewhere behind.

Prpbably use a few in horizontal. Odds dependent but likely the Inspector, Ray and Coping.
Add Call and Camelot based on odds.

Bob

[sekrah]

I like the one horse I don\'t think anyone has mentioned:

Isotherm

Did nothing wrong as a 2yo, including an interesting top on the dirt at Keeneland in the BC.  That was a pretty strong move I think for this pure grass-bred.  Was asked to go a 1 1/16 in that Aug 5th race off a 7-month shelf.  Broke poorly behind a slow pace, pulled into the first turn, and got cut off by Strike Midnight while making a move on the backstretch.  He was never the winner but a deceivingly good effort without any prep (and a short workout docket going back only 6 weeks to June 20th). A classier two-year-old pattern than all of these other horses, he should absolutely move forward here.

With all the Browns in here I could see this one drifting to 10-1.

[sekrah]

BTW.. Whoever gave 2w to Strike Midnight and 1w to Isotherm on the 2nd turn of that race should have their eyes checked.

[Fairmount1]

Guys,

I\'m falling apart from SWS (Saratoga Withdrawal Syndrome) less than a week out.  I missed the inaugural NYRA late p5 by a full day, misidentified the hot dog/chips baron, and richiebee said I absolutely butchered the facts surrounding Desperate Anny\'s in my post.

For the record, it just didn\'t seem appropriate to pick on the guy who was in the hospital.  Let\'s say the author had a little bit of \"editorial discretion\" in describing Uncle Bill\'s nutrition advice and persuasive powers immediately changing you to a salad guru.  Uncle Bill assured me that his fruit stand is still open if Sean decides to give up the tenders and fries but at this late juncture in the meet, I see no need.  

I\'m standing by my original pick(s).  Ray\'s the Bar earned a 6 again last time earning the victory.  JJ aboard again, Chad has this horse figured out, and I will use him slightly more prominently than the 7 in horizontals expecting him to explode to a new top.  

Have fun in the backyard today and let\'s get a photo again on this closing weekend with Jerry this time.  I want to see if he has a collared shirt on today!!

Despite the temptation of heading to Franklin, Kentucky, I\'m resigned to wearing my Saratoga T-shirt to lowly Fairmount Park today.  

________

If anyone is playing KyDowns today, I saw a stat on twitter worth sharing.  Posts 1-4 are 0-52 the last 13 races ran at 7 furlongs(2013-2015).  There are two stakes for 2yo\'s there at 7 furlongs today.   In typical contrary fashion and proof that I\'ve lost my mind since leaving TG mecca, I\'ll try to buck this post trend and buck the \"Chicago to anywhere doesn\'t win trend\" with Zunino in the 8th for Stidham off an AP 5f turf win from post 2.  I will also play him in 2nd in the exacta underneath Ancient Warfare who I expect to be about 2-1 or 5-2 at post time as the fav.

[jerry]

KY Downs is the place to be today. Big, competitive fields. Nice odds.

[sekrah]

You\'re not kidding jerry.  Track is loaded.  Was very underwhelmed by the Saratoga card, I think I\'ll try KDX.

10 turf races. 4 stakes, 4 allowance, 2 MSWs.. Average field size standing at 11.9 right now.

[TGAB]

Sekrah,

I just reviewed the turn path info for both Strike Midnight and Isotherm in the Hall of Fame on August 9th.  You\'re are right to question the ground shown for Strike Midnight. He was 1w on both turns but entered into the database 1w and 2w on the respective turns. We made a typing error and didn\'t pick up on it until you just questioned it. Thanks. For Isotherm the data are correct. He was 1w on turn one and 1w2w on turn two but the turn path info is shown as 1w1w. For mid-path calls due to limited space we always show the extreme path--1 in this case. If it were 2w3w 3 would be shown, and wider, etc. His figure is correct as shown. And Strike Midnight\'s rounds to an 8 with the correct path info. Jerry will review it when he gets back to the office.

Thanks for pointing this out to us.

[sekrah]

Thank you Alan. I apologize if I came off a little surly. Thanks for the explanation on the rounding.  Cheers.

[jimbo66]

Stone\'s 4-1 ML second choice opens 15-1, longest shot on the board.

Enough said

[Silver Charm]

Great call. Hope you killed it for the Meet now