Spa Wrap Up

[FrankD.]

The horse vans are headed out south and west, the nights are cool, the leaves are starting to change, the kids go back to school and the NFL kicks off. This screams out in no uncertain terms that the Spa is over so get on with your life again.

The 2016 meet is going to require a lot of re examination as it was a very very strange one that has many left wondering. It\'s no great surprise it\'s always a bit top heavy. Out of town jocks, start up trainers, claiming outfits historically have had little success here. While Mike Smith came to town to capture 4 Grade 1\'s and a few Aqueduct claiming outfits had some success here the creme rose to the top this year like never before.

The top 4 jocks (Ortiz\'s, JJ, JV) won 55% of the races when you take out the steeplechase events. Chad Brown and TAP won 18% of the flat races with Chad 45% in the exacta with 166 starts. If you break out Chad for turf races only where he had 2 and 3 horses in several he is over 50% in the exacta for those heats with a very large sample.
Charlie Baker, Tom Proctor, Tom Morley, (MR Maggie) James Bond and Shug all had outstanding meets. Bill Mott, Clement, Asmussen, Chris Engleheart all under performed with the Mott barn having twice their win total in runner up finishes, a trainers night mere!

TGJB and many others have been talking about how through this entire meet like no one can ever recall how when the money showed the horses ran and when it didn\'t they didn\'t. More to come on that for sure and Mathcapper please chime in as I know you have many examples.

The last 3 races yesterday showed that to the end. In the turf stake Takeover Target seemed like the obvious choice in the 2/1 or 8/5 off range. He went off 7/2 didn\'t run much at all while Ring Weekend and Jay Gatsby went off shorter and ran 1,2. What kind of odds would anyone have given on JG going off shorter than TT?
In the Hopeful Practical Joke was 3rd choice in the doubles, 7/2 as they started loading and was slammed to 2/1, getting up by a nose.In the finale Sassy Lil Lila
got in off the AE was slammed in the horizontals and ran off on a rock hard turf course that produced insane times in the final 2 turf races.

The conversation on betting patterns at this meet should get very interesting.

Good luck and onto Finger Lakes! JUST KIDDING

Frank D.

[Silver Charm]

FrankD. Wrote:
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> Chad Brown and TAP won 18% of the flat races with
> Chad 45% in the exacta with 166 starts. If you
> break out Chad for turf races only where he had 2
> and 3 horses in several he is over 50% in the
> exacta for those heats with a very large sample.

Frank well done. If you go back in this Forum to late May I believe I put up a post that said Chad Brown would own this Meet and everyone\'s tickets. Either you were trying to beat him or forced to figure out how to use him. When that string resurfaced after Belmont Day when Brown won 4 races Miff scoffed at the idea of his success as being attributed to some type of \"Lightweight using Chemistry\". So I was a little surprised to hear on here that wherever Miff has disappeared to Miff correctly predicted Browns Spa Streak! Really??

As much as Brown coming on I would examine closely Pletcher perhaps tailing off. How many of those wins of his were with 2YO\'s? I bet almost half. His horses don\'t seem to have that unbeatable punch in the final furlong they once had. The guy will still win because he has a TON of stock but when the 7 figure Tapit babies like the one he ran on Saturday don\'t fire (and there were one or two others) I begin to see a trend.....

[Topcat]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FrankD. Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Chad Brown and TAP won 18% of the flat races
> with
> > Chad 45% in the exacta with 166 starts. If you
> > break out Chad for turf races only where he had
> 2
> > and 3 horses in several he is over 50% in the
> > exacta for those heats with a very large
> sample.
>
> Frank well done. If you go back in this Forum to
> late May I believe I put up a post that said Chad
> Brown would own this Meet and everyone\'s tickets.
> Either you were trying to beat him or forced to
> figure out how to use him. When that string
> resurfaced after Belmont Day when Brown won 4
> races Miff scoffed at the idea of his success as
> being attributed to some type of \"Lightweight
> using Chemistry\". So I was a little surprised to
> hear on here that wherever Miff has disappeared to
> Miff correctly predicted Browns Spa Streak!
> Really??
>
> As much as Brown coming on I would examine closely
> Pletcher perhaps tailing off. How many of those
> wins of his were with 2YO\'s? I bet almost half.
> His horses don\'t seem to have that unbeatable
> punch in the final furlong they once had. The guy
> will still win because he has a TON of stock but
> when the 7 figure Tapit babies like the one he ran
> on Saturday don\'t fire (and there were one or two
> others) I begin to see a trend.....


Key TAP factor: Only one colt worth a double-0shake (Theory) debuted upstate -- and we won\'t see him again, this season.

[RICH]

149-31 21%

2yr 49-15 31% +roi

[Paolo]

Hardly a stretch to question Chad\'s success last year or to predict his success at the Spa this year. Gotta love Miff\'s 2015 response:

Chad Brown, by MANY account at Belmont,cannot win as frequently with long running turfers,off layoffs or firsters, without help...f-king impossible

June 4, 2016
Silver:Chad Brown

June 8, 2015
Paolo:Chad

[richiebee]

Will be interesting to see if Chad can succeed in Triple Crown races (Double
Crown if you use Ragozin) where TAP has been less than successful.

Shug\'s performance at the Spa was noteworthy in that of his 8 winners (from 31
starters), I think (can use some help here) at least 6 of them were grassy. Also
my impression is that he sent out many more horses for Stuart Janney than for the
Phipps stable.

With regards to Bill Mott, as Frank says, a disappointing Spa meet, but he did
win Grade I races on both coasts on one weekend.

[philywheel]

This was as hard as it gets, The only way to make any money at this meet was to be a contrarian ,or bet the Ortiz Brothers, THEN HIT THE ALL BUTTON
next yr Im playin fingerlakes , was it me or was I the only one that had bad trips , got DQed, and lost every photo finish in every race I bet and I do mean every race,I must admit I can Take a loss , but this was downright frustrating

THANK GOD BELMONT IS BACK  , CYA AT THE CASHIERS LINE

[RICH]

20-7 on turf
3-2 sprint turf
17-5 route turf
11-1 dirt

[richiebee]

Thanks Rich.

[RICH]

things have changed I didn\'t know shug was a turf guy

[banditbeau]

Phily - the Hopeful and finale yesterday offering the last chance to get out of the meet, was the epitome of what you are saying it seems.  With 15/1 Royal Copy holding the lead as Practical Joke was closing in - \"Royal Copy had the rider(Saez) lose the handle on the stick a sixteenth from home, fought gamely but was caught in the last jumps to the wire,\" and then only to have Saez whistle in the 11th.  As Miff would say - toughest game around.

bb

[Fairmount1]

Silver, Just want to clear up the details about the Brown comments.  As for miff, his twitter rants and spears directed at others are worth reading from time to time simply for the humor.

Silver Charm wrote:  \"So I was a little surprised to hear on here that wherever Miff has disappeared to Miff correctly predicted Browns Spa Streak! Really??\"

I wrote in a previous post:  \"Miff has departed to twitter although his miffed attitude would be welcome here as he, in essence, correctly portended Chad Brown\'s recent success.\"

I assume this is the post that surprised you.  My mention of his predicting success is based solely on the comments below.  In an exchange between you and him as well as others, he wrote the following which lead me to believe he was on to a trend with Brown that would continue forward.  Note there was no mention of a \"Spa Streak\" by miff or me above.  These are miff quotes hereafter from the board before his departure:


Said that many times, its a mystery.

Chad Brown\'s meteoric rise, esp w/grass runners,is unprecedented since going on his own about 2007. By way of background, his stated work with Frankel is overrated. He was a whipping boy, early on, who couldn\'t put a bridle on correctly.The physical presence of the Frankel grass horses smacked of steroids which were LEGAL.Tricky, friends with Frankel, took that cue also as did many.Brown works for a brief time for Allday. His horses present power behind,males with barrel chests. Flintshire is a very talented horse, looking at him yesterday,saw a physical monster, not buying the totality of Browns success from husbandry.

So that\'s a little history,then we add a myriad of new breakthrough legal aids available to trainers today.A case can be made for success but perhaps not 100% on the square  

AND

Voiced an opinion but know it\'s got zero to do with that \" he\'s patient\" nonsense often used here. Do you think that hundreds of other trainers aren\'t patient too? Patience means zero if a horse has no ability.

Gotta have good stock, he does, gotta race \"hot\" he absolutely does. Owner friend with him calls him miracle worker(with smirk) Runs many all muscled up off layoffs, a sign of steroidal type use(some legal,some not)

No sour grapes, have to be insane not to use his turf horses,they always seem to fire.


AND

His results are off the charts and defy training skills/patience.

[Bet Twice]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> With regards to Bill Mott, as Frank says, a
> disappointing Spa meet, but he did
> win Grade I races on both coasts on one weekend.

And the Red Jacket, let\'s not forget the Red Jacket.

[jbelfior]

I was standing along the fence leading to the Saratoga paddock when they brought Flintshire in for the Sword Dancer. He looked like a T-Rex walking behind raptors.
I was there on Saturday when Chad took the collar. My best day at the meet for several reasons.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Molesap]

Agree that the \"steam\" horses did very well this meet. Any chance that part of their success was due to the poor morning lines? Did some of those action horses just seem to get bet harder because of excessively high morning lines? I am sure that all of it was not due to the morning lines, but could that be skewing our perception? Also, is Stone going to continue doing the morning lines or will there be someone else at Belmont? Another was Pletcher. When Pletcher got bet, he generally did very well, but when he had little action, especially his first timers, they seemed to all run bad.