3-Year Old Picture

[jimbo66]

Personally, much more a gambler than a fan, so usually don\'t get too hung up on awards and stuff, but this year\'s 3 year old picture is interesting.

Conventional wisdom after the Haskell was that Exaggerator\'s win there, combined with the Preakness, 2nd in the DERby and earlier races had put him JUST ahead of Nyquist.  

Seems to me that since then, Exaggerator running two disgusting races and Nyquist running one disgusting race, has changed that.  Nyquist\'s awful PA derby will likely be viewed as a horse who is just \"over the top\" and off form now . Exaggerator\'s grotesque Travers and poor PA Derby seem more likely to get viewed as confirmation he is only a mud horse (whether true or not).  Seems unlikely that a horse viewed as a mudder will win the Eclipse award.

Even if Arrogate were to freak again and win the BC Classic, it wouldn\'t seem that would be enough for the Eclipse.

We shouldn\'t see Exaggerator or Nyquist again this year after the poor races yesterday.  

Jim

[FrankD.]

Jimmy, Jimmy, Jimmy,

If Arrogate beats CC in the BC Classic he is a LOCK for top 3yr old.

[TGJB]

Agree.

[jimbo66]

Yeah, but as much as I respect Baffert, I don\'t see that happening.

And then what?

[jerry]

Arrogate taking the BCC would be enough. Otherwise it\'s Songbird.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:
If you could make a futures bet on which trainer saddles the BC Classic winner, who are you taking?

I know who I would take.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[TempletonPeck]

This isn\'t a bad guess really. Wynn has her -160 (no typo, she\'s -160 on September 26) to win the Distaff and if no 3yo colt wins the Classic she\'s gotta get some votes.

[Silver Charm]

She is in her own Division and would not be a candidate for 3YO Eclipse Male. Regarding the Distaff if the race were run today 8/5 might he considered generous to some. And if some other older mares line Beholder don\'t make it I can only see her price going down. I don\'t bet many 8/5 shots 6 minutes before post anymore. Certainly not about to take one 6 weeks before post....

[TempletonPeck]

Ha, of course you\'re right, oops!

[jimbo66]

Joe B.,

To me, Baffert is the best of the big name trainers, by quite a bit.  I think Pletcher is the worst (although I also think Kiaran is making a run at the bottom, especially when you factor in \"gambling\".  He must hang with quite a few gamblers as he talks up his horses.  His horses have been getting routinely overbet for about 6 months now, with disastrous results.  Anyway, back to your question, in the beginning of the racing season, in any year, I take Baffert.

If your question is right now who is most likely to win the BC Classic, it is California Chrome and it isn\'t close.  I have never been a fan, been betting against him in many races over the past 2 years, but the horse is fast, will be locally based and has been running well for 2 years.  Now, if I can get 8-1 on Frosted on race day, if he runs, I would take 8-1 on a horse with a huge number that can win.  And if Arrogate gets away on the odds board because of just having the one big race, then a relatively long layoff, I could take 10-1 or so.  

Jim

[jbelfior]

Hi Jim:
IMO, Frosted not beating BC Classic horses at a 1 1/4 at Santa Anita. As for Baffert and what he is capable of accomplishing, would not dismiss Dortmund yet.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

I certainly would have concerns about the 1 1/4 for Frosted.

But price matters.  At least to me.  His negative 8 TG, 122 beyer makes him dangerous and at 8-1 or so, I could bite, despite those concerns about distance.  (at 3-1, I would call him \"distance challenged\")

Jim

[mjellish]

-160 is not 8/5.

[vired]

not even close

[Silver Charm]

excuse me. what is it. perhaps i had the sign backwards.