ROTW 12-10-16

[Pkane05]

Can someone break down how the 12-10-16 ROTW analysis calculated that the two inside horses effectively both ran a 5 3/4 by factoring in ground loss and weight?

I cannot figure out how they arrived at a 5 and 3/4 for both horses.

Thanks.

[TGAB]

Mageez, the 1 on the rail, had a turf top of 8-1/4, and was assigned 115 to carry. String King, the 2 next door, was assigned 122 pounds. Because 5 pounds difference in weight carried is equivalent to 1 TG point, a difference of 7 pounds roughly equates to 1-1/2 points (rounding). So were Mageez and String King to cross the finish tied assuming no difference in ground loss, the same paths around the turn, Mageez\'s 8-1/4 is the equivalent of String King\'s 6-3/4 roughly. String King gets credit figure-wise for carrying the extra 7 pounds.

Now also posited was a rail ride for Mageez, that means 1w1w, and a 2w2w, 2 path ride both turns, for String King. So String King ran 2 lengths farther than Mageez. A length is 8.5 furlongs translates roughly to about 1/2 TG point (actually slightly more but 1/2 here for rounding purposes). So posited that Mageez ran on the rail and String King ran in the 2 path String King ran 2 lengths farther, roughly equivalent to 1 TG point. So assuming equal weights Mageez\'s 8-1/4 equates String King\'s 7-1/4. Add the 1-1/2 points weight credit from above, Mageez\'s theoretical 8-1/4 is equivalent to String King\'s 5-3/4.

The quote from the ROTW is \"... Mageez\'s turf top, 8-1/4, is roughly equal to String King\'s 5-3/4, assuming the weights hold, 1w1w and 2w2w rides for Mageez and String King.\"

[Pkane05]

Thank you!

[Pkane05]

Sorry, but I have a follow up question.

The one horse earned the 8 1/4 while carrying 4 more pounds than he carried on Saturday. Does that mean at today\'s weight he ran around a 7 1/4 or 7 1/2 as his top?

Following that logic, does that mean the two horse\'s equivalent figure (considering the 7 pound difference) is a 5 3/4 to a 6 to the one horse\'s 7 1/4 to 7 1/2 (when considering he carried four more pounds while earning his top)?

Or is the better approach what you explained above in taking the one\'s 8 1/4 at face value without considering the fact he carried 4 more pounds the day he earned that fig?

[TGAB]

No. Mageez earned his turf top, 8-1/4, carrying 119 running 2w4w on the turns July 2nd. That\'s what he ran. Weight is included in every figure. Past figures DON\'T have to be adjusted for today\'s weights. Just look at today\'s weight differences and perhaps projected ground loss. Though the latter factor is speculative.  

That\'s what I did in ROTW comment. I looked at the differences in TODAY\'s weights and the projected ground loss. Forget what Mageez carried last time. He ran an 8-1/4 and were he to run it again, given the conditions, String King needed roughly a 5-3/4 to run comparably.

Look at today\'s conditions. Weight and ground loss are already included in past figures. There\'s no need to make adjustments for those--the figure indicates the effort.

[Pkane05]

I wish I would have asked these questions earlier since I\'ve been using Thorograph almost weekly for about two years.

Thanks for the explanation.