Florida Derby Rumors

[Silver Charm]

Heard Gun has a fever and may scratch. Beware both ways because I\'m not standing in his stall and it could be here say. And then again....

[Silver Charm]

Tough to say this was a valid report but it came from a reliable source. One thing that was certain was Gun totally bounced and was the proverbial \"failed to menace\". That last race and number could have him as tough read come Derby Day ie-fast enough to win or totally fried...

[jimbo66]

Silver.  

The horse ran.  No reason to run a horse with a foot issue who already has derby points.  Means the report was wrong

As for tough read going forward.   I doubt it.  Who was the last horse to win the derby off a non-effort.  Thunder gulch off an \"0-2-x\".  

Can\'t bet this horse in the derby.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Without looking my guess is Monarchos, but it wasn\'t as big a bounce a this. And if Caton was right about him having lost weight going into this, running back won\'t help.

We\'re looking at doing a seminar for next weekend, interesting stuff ahead.

[ajkreider]

Not sure I\'d put this down as a non-effort.  Time was very fast. Four of the top five at the half finished in the top five.  The other horse was Gunny, who was last at the half.  The race will get a good number, given Salty\'s performance earlier.  

So we have Gunny running what looks like the \'2\' in 0-2-X, and Always Dreaming running, what, a nine point new top?

Edit: It will be interesting to see the day\'s numbers, given the MSW went so much faster than some decent horses in the Sir Shackleton.

[TGJB]

I would be pretty surprised if Gun didn\'t bounce a good deal more than 2 points.

[jimbo66]

AJ,

If TGJB gives Gunnevara a 2 point backward move, he will be out of business soon.

HE got beat 7 lengths at equal weights by a horse who paired 9\'s his last two races.  (if you want to forget about or discount the 9\'s as not accurate or not an accurate reflection of the winner\'s talent, the second place horse has about as steady a line as can be with consecutive 4\'s.  And he beat Gunnevara by 1.5 lengths.

The bidding starts at a 6 or 7 point backward move by Gunnevara.  Forget about 2 points.

TGJB,

I thought of Monarchos, but his race against Congaree was at least an effort.  A 3 point backward move and much more of a \"prep\" type race.  I would equate it with the \"prep/backward move\" that STreet Sense ran in the Blue Grass.  Gunnevara didn\'t run a step.  This was the worst/slowest Florida Derby field in years and he was VERY LUCKY to get up for a piss poor 3rd.  

Stick a fork in him.

Jim

[johnnym]

Jimbo?
You think Gunny was cranked up today?

[jimbo66]

Johnny,

I posted before the race in a thread \"Must bet against Gunnevara\" that anybody who knows how to read a sheet and understands this game HAD to bet against the colt today.

Didn\'t need the race to get to the Derby.  Off a 6 point top.  LAst race had a huge pace edge would he wouldn\'t get today.  And would be about 4/5.

He was even money.  So I guess I was wrong about that.

So, no he wasn\'t cranked.

But today\'s race looked more than \"not cranked\".  IT was bounce.  Bad bounce.  Even read what the chartcaller said, sluggish at the half or thereabouts.

Monarchos and Street Sense were \"not cranked\".

Today was an over the top horse.

Those kind are horrible derby bets.

Jim

[johnnym]

Does this mean Always Dreaming is a bounce come Derby Day?
Thanks.

[ajkreider]

He obviously went back more than two points - but probably back to his old top.  I\'d thought that the 0-2-X pattern was not a literal two point regression, but a modest backward move off of a big figure, followed by a blowup.  And how big of a move back this was depends on how confident JB is in the neg 2, which he wasn\'t sold on a couple of weeks back.  

And speaking of the place horse, the equipment change is reason to move forward - and he was on a speed favoring track which flatters his style.

The harder question is what to do with the winner, whose previous races were glorified workouts, and then this. (But he is a Pletcher, so ....)

[jimbo66]

Eh,

Always Dreamin is a bet against because TAP, aka the most over-rated trainer in this game, has a very easy to read resume with Derby horses.  His 3 year olds fire a big shot in their last derby prep, almost all of them.  And after they do, they run despicable on Derby day, except for Super Saver, who has been covered enough on this board.

I wouldn\'t spend 30 seconds looking at Always Dreamin\'s TG line going into the DErby.  Paired 9\'s going into today were hard to believe/accept.  And whatever he gets now will be a huge move up.

The problem with tossing AD on DErby day is that it is no longer a secret that TAP sucks in the Derby.  Last year, his two horses were arguably overlays.  

Jim

[jimbo66]

AJ,

Sorry, but think you are wrong again, although you get a mulligan because all of the \"experts\" on TV called it \"speed favoring\" all day long too.

There is a difference between a very fast track and a speed favoring track.

6 dirt races.

1 race wire to wire
2 races won by stalkers
3 races won by horses coming from way back.

No speed track.   Fast track, but pretty fair.

In the 3 races won by horses from way back it wasn\'t just the winners that came from the back, but many of the top finishers.

if you want to see a speed favoring track, download some results from the Aqueduct inner this winter.  Final times and fractions were slow, but winners from the rail and longshots who had no shot holding till late in the stretch.

Those are speed favoring track traits.  Not fast fractions.

Jim

[johnnym]

Agree the more Pletcher horses in the starting gate the more tosses.
Tapwrit is still on the fence.

[TheBull]

If your job entails talking about racing for a living and you thought today\'s GP strip was speed favoring, you should lose your job. Period. Dont think the derby winner ran today.....but Ive been saying that, seemingly, every Saturday now, so who knows