Pletcher‘s Previous Derby Horses

[richiebee]

Jimbo, I went against the grain this year with a small Derby future.

TAP has admittedly screwed the pooch as a Derby trainer. The statistics
presented by you and others confirm this.

Possibly as big a disappointment as far as the Derby is concerned is America\'s
leading sire, Tapit.

According to a DRF supplement published on January 21, Tapit, who stands for
300K, sired runners with earnings of more than $19 million, $7 million more
than the second stallion on the list, Curlin. Tapit was fourth leading sire in
terms of 2YOs. Tapit was fifth leading turf sire.

Tapit has underachieved as a sire of Derby runners. A quick review of the TG
archives reveals that Tapit has sired seven Derby starters: Hansen (2012)
finished 9th)(TG 6³); Normandy Invasion (2013)
(4th)(1¹); Tapiture (2014)(15th)(6³); Frosted (2015)(4th)
(-1); Mohaymen (2016)(4th)(2¹); Lani (2016)(5th)(3³); and
Creator (2016)(13th)(8³).

To report fairly, Tapit has sired the winners of two of the last three Belmont Stakes.

So, taking a page from George Costanza, who once went on a wonderful run by
saying and doing the opposite of what he usually would, I plunked down a small
future wager on Tapwrit, sired by an underachieving Derby sire and trained by
an underachieving Derby trainer. The odds were a most unpalatable 10-1.

The point might be that when you run young colts at a distance they mostly have
not covered before, against the largest field they have or will ever again
face, some aberrations are to be expected.

I do not have a strong positive Derby opinion. The intriguing colts are
McCraken (sp?) who has missed some training for a conditioner who has done well
lately but most of whose Derby experience is as an assistant, and Classic
Empire, who marches to the beat of his own drummer.

I still stand by TAP\'s Master Plan as a Belmont factor, if he can rebound from
his Dubai travels. His record is similar to 2016 winner Creator in that MP was
never tried at a sprint distance, usually indicative that the connections felt
early on that longer distances would be where the colt would excel.

[jbelfior]

From everything I have read about the Derby, I have one question---did California fall into the Pacific?  

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Al Caught Up]

That\'ll be the day I go back to Annandale.

(sorry, couldn\'t resist)

[bellsbendboy]

Perhaps JB, yet aside from 2yo foundation and spacing the rest of Jimbo\'s rant is, his usual prattle.  Profitability, the first Saturday in May, often is not picking the winner, but playing a horse, at odds, that fits in the frame.

Runnerups, this race can be/often are,  big potatoes on the board.

Data points including a colt putting on weight coming in,  having acceptable class/pedigree and working well, especially at Churchill will certainly outperform Jimbo\'s spin significantly.  bbb

[moosepalm]

Al Caught Up Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That\'ll be the day I go back to Annandale.
>

This is one of those rare times when I wish this board had a \"like\" function.  However, I doubt it would have the capacity to handle a \"dislike\" function.

[moosepalm]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Perhaps JB, yet aside from 2yo foundation and
> spacing the rest of Jimbo\'s rant is, his usual
> prattle.  Profitability, the first Saturday in
> May, often is not picking the winner, but playing
> a horse, at odds, that fits in the frame.
>
> Runnerups, this race can be/often are,  big
> potatoes on the board.
>
> Data points including a colt putting on weight
> coming in,  having acceptable class/pedigree and
> working well, especially at Churchill will
> certainly outperform Jimbo\'s spin significantly.
> bbb


And this is one of those moments I wish the board had the capacity for posting pics or gifs, because I would throw in one of a dour looking guy saying, in a deep baritone, \"Go ooooon,\" where the \"on\" sounds like it\'s about six syllables long.

[Tavasco]

There are many reasons I enjoy posts by Richiebee. Usually either his cleverness or humor are the stars.

Today we have a post that suggests he may be an investigative reporter for the N.Y. Times and he might be. I have been thinking along those lines myself. It could be my nature or it could the new phenomena known as \"active measures\" and how easily the public can be mislead that peaks my curiosity. In the end it is a search for the truth.

#1 Is it legitimate, rational and reasonable to have had positive expectations for TAP runners in previous years.

a. If yes, why? what actual objective facts correlate to KD success.

b. Consider Templeton Peck\'s point of statistical sample size to prove cause and effect.

#2 Are the results due to something TAP does or doesn\'t do?.

a. Something about TAP\'s program that is incompatible with Kentucky Derby.

b. Something about the program of successful KD trainers incompatible with TAP?

c. Is there a some payoff (related to the results to date) that is below the radar.

Here is the problem, the mystery if you will. Is it the expectation that TAP runners should fare well in Kentucky that is faulty or is it TAP\'s real world preparation and program that is the disconnect.

I already feel a tug and want to forecast a TAP win in 2017 and don\'t even know why?

[johnnym]

Pretty big number jump for Always Dreaming.

[big18741]

Richiebee

Wilkes runs the operation but the two time Derby winner is present.
From what I\'ve read and heard they\'re still a team.
Nafzger is now in the background but he\'s around to lean on.

[magicnight]

Just to add to the general silliness here ... you know the old Red Smith line about how to get to Saratoga (150 miles north on the Thruway, left on Union Avenue and go back 100 years). Here\'s how you get to Annandale. 75 miles north on the Thruway, cross the Kingston-Rhinecliff Bridge, left on River Road and go back 50 years.

[TGJB]

Good to see you\'re back, Bob.

[magicnight]

Thanks, JB. I was pretty far gone for a while. Doing much better now (to Frank and Richie and Rocky and Sean and TC and the rest of the Spa crew, I was in the hospital for two weeks with a \"fever of unknown origin\" that really laid me out for a total of about six weeks). Good luck in the Derby preps, all!

[jimbo66]

BBB,

As per norm, u remain clueless and full of assertions.

Yes, \"class\" is a much more important factor than having paired tops or a slightly forward moving line as opposed to big jump up.  

If I was half as smart as you think you are, I would be beating this game regularly.  And if I was only twice as smart as you actually are, I would be doing much worse than I am now........

Good luck to you.  You VERY MUCH need it.

Jim

[richiebee]

Big:

Good point. I seem to remember reading that Carl Nafzger and his wife ran the shed while Wilkes vacationed in Australia this winter. Maybe Mrs. Genter is looking on from above...

[Silver Charm]

That\'s good stuff. There has always been something shaky about Pletcher horses coming out of Florida. A couple of potential Favs (Eskendreya and Uncle Mo) never made it to the gate but they Prepped in Wood also. So did Gemologist who may have been last in the Derby. See the Melynk horse(Graeme Hall) and the Slop horse (Keyed Entry) of his who was 2nd to Baffert in Wood. I mean seriously this guy has run last in the Derby like 3 times as much as  he has won. You keep betting against him until he proves that is a bad angle. The DUE THEORY WILL CRUSH YOU