Saturday Preps - Thoughts

[Furious Pete]

Fair play, I know more about making them than reading them in light of sheet theory, I\'ll give you that. I don\'t want to put too much pride into this because that is never good, and I don\'t want to give anyone the impression that I love always dreaming either. I just say that I\'m leaning towards him at this point. There\'s a lot coming up that can change that opinion. But I do like that angle that neither the public nor the wise guys will be all over this one (relatively speaking). I don\'t think the 9 year olds will make much difference in the pools, either.

[FrankD.]

Your correct Pete,

My first bet wasn\'t until 10 years old on the JETS in the 69 Super Bowl.

[ajkreider]

While AD doesn\'t have the pattern, he does have a top recent figure that is good enough to win, and he has the running style that wins the Derby.

Lacking the pattern makes him a tough play as the favorite, but this is a comparative endeavor.  Lots of warts on horses\' sheets this year.  Who has the wonder pattern?  Not Irish War Cry. Not anyone from Cali.  The Dubai horse?

Anyway, we\'re still weeks away from the draw, so . . . .

[jimbo66]

AJ,

Already posted who will have decent patterns.  No such thing as \"wonder pattern\".

TGJB obviously still has to do the work, but dollars to doughnuts that both McCracken and Practical Joke will have excellent patterns heading into the Derby, albeit needing to run a tad faster to win.

IWC will likely be sitting on bounce as MJellish pointed out, but he won\'t be looking as ugly as Always Dreamin for sure.  

Classic Empire could still turn this thing upside down next week.  He runs well, winning and running something in the \"0\" range, he would look pretty good heading into the Derby.  He had run a 3, a 2 and a 0 last year, amongst his 5 races.  He pairs his \"0\" or thereabouts next Saturday and maybe we forgive the horrendous race first time out this year and figure the trainer figured out what was wrong with the horse and he becomes a real serious player and maybe most likely winner.

Jim

[Furious Pete]

An instant winner, nice one! Nassim Taleb writes interesting stuff about this, there\'s no \"beginners luck\" but there certainly is a survivorship bias suggesting it!

And really, how could you be so dismissive towards the kids Jimbo, seems like they have cleaned up pretty good lately in the Kentucky Derby.

Recent form going into the derby:

2016: Nyquist - 1 1 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.3/1)
2015: American Pharaoh - 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.9/1)
2014: California Chrome - 1 1 1 1 (odds 2.5/1)
2013: Orb - 1 1 1 1 (odds 5.4/1)
2012: I\'ll Have Another - 1 1 (odds 15.3/1)

[jimbo66]

Pete,

Those five winners are worth looking at . When you have a minute, take a look at their sheets.

Nyquist and California Chrome are somewhat similar  Both had established 2 year old tops with some progression at 3.  The \"problem\" for many (me included) was that neither had a figure advantage over the Derby fields and they would be favored.  At 2.3 and 2.5 to 1 odds, in 20 horse fields or thereabouts, with no speed figure advantage, I couldn\'t play them.

AMerican Pharaoh was as tougher call.  A fast horse on all figures.  A well known foot problem that caused him to get a late 3 year old start, and a crammed schedule, without a lot of spacing.  Some (me included), got hung up on that and forgot that he was trained by the best trainer of the last 40 years and bet against him.  (I liked Firing Line).

We discussed Orb.  I had I\'ll Have Another in the derby futures pool off the \"1\" in the San Felipe or some other prep in March.  (forgetting which one)

But one thing all those winners had were reasonable patterns, no huge forward moves.

None of those winners had anything as ugly as 5 - 9 - 9 - 0.

And none were trained by a trainer with a near perfect pattern of bouncing in the derby with all his Gulfstream horses.

Jim

[Furious Pete]

Yes. Of course. I\'ve bought the seminar most years and I obviously think the sheet theory approach to horse racing is very interesting, since I\'m here. However, the reason I buy TG every time I play US racing is because of their superior speed figures, and not because of a long lasting obligation towards sheet theory. Some sheet theory is valid, I\'m sure, and can bring about great betting opportunities that not everyone will see. Other parts are more dubious.

I can see why you can get emotionally invested over this years edition of the derby, specially when imagining a Pletcher win to Always Dreaming, because a lot is on stake here. Who\'s the better predictor of a derby winner; a 9 yo that only look at recent placings, or sworn sheet theorists ready to die by their swords? We\'ll see. At least there\'s a much bigger chance AD and Pletcher won\'t win, than that they will.

BTW, isn\'t a 7 point jump after a narrow win considered a negative? Puzzled by Orb.

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:
Battalion Runner is an easy toss? Great conditioner for him.

Hoping most have the same opinion.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[jimbo66]

Joe B.

Yes.  Easy toss.

I don\'t call a soft trip on a speed favoring track a conditioner.  Hard to imagine a better trip than he got.

And again, why in the world look at a pletcher horse that needs to move forward in the Derby?  Which of his 50 runners moved forward in the Derby.

Yikes.  

Jim

[jbelfior]

They weren\'t exactly crawling through the first 6. So not sure what \"soft trip\" you are referring to.

Pletcher\'s last 50 runners have nothing to do with whether this horse moves forward or not.

I can see the next 3 weeks being a lot of fun on here Jim.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[FrankD.]

Joe B.

Batillion is probably going to need some defections to make the Derby gate. Five with 40 points of that crew he is last in graded stakes earnings tie breaker 3 or 4 next Saturday will go past him.

Good luck,

Frank D.

Correction he is ahead of CC in earnings

[big18741]

Same owner as Always Dreaming.

Read somewhere yesterday Viola might be leaning against going with Battalion Runner.

[jimbo66]

Joe,

Did you not watch the other Aqueduct races other than the Wood?

Favorite wired the 1st race.

Brimstone, a notorious pea heart, wired the second.

Moon Over Beauty, non-competitive on numbers, wired the 3rd at 10-1.

Outplay, just OK on numbers, wired the 4th by 8 lengths.

Marriage Fever, non-competitive on numbers, just missed wiring the 5th at 15-1.

Even Thunder, longest shot in the field, came 2nd in the Bay Shore after trying to wired the field.

Tu Brutus ran a 119 Beyer from the front in the Excelsior.

Green Gratto wired the Carter at 55-1.

So, ABSOLUTELY, Battalion Runner got a soft trip.  An uncontested lead with token pressure from 20-1 True Timber, is a soft trip on an intense speed track.

Jim

[belmont3]

Jimbo,

I watched the entire AQU card Saturday and read the charts.
I would respectfully (and respectfully being the pivotal word) challenge the assumption that the Saturday AQU card was speed biased.



To avoid a semantical debate (and for the purposes of this post)  I would define a wtw as just that. Leads gate to wire and/or leads at every call
Close to pace means just that. Did not lead from gate but stalked pace and did not lead at every call.
Closer means sat somewhere behind speed (maybe a few lengths or more closed.)


On Saturday, the early races certainly looked like a day that might have a speed bias. (even though the raw times were a bit on the slow side).
After the first two wtw winners (one at 4-5 and the other a lone speed type that was touted pre race by paddock folk), it had the makings of a \'speed biased\" track.
As to the rest of the card:
3rd race: close to pace (early speed finished last)
4th) wtw (even money favorite)
5th) Closer
6th) Closer
7th) Closer
8th race-Close to pace for (Send It In in Excelsior.)
9th race-WTW with an asterisk. Tommy Macho looked like a winner until shut off by runner up circa 18th pole. (read the chart or watch replay if you dd not see the race)  TM was closer.
10th) IWC was 4th at first call. Close to the pace winner
11th) WTW
12th Closer

For the day,
4 WTW
1 WTW with an asterisk
3 Close to Pace
4 Closers

Based on \'expectations\' (that is how many of the wtw winners favored and/or made sense figure wise), I do not see where the \'speed\" type horses dominated the card nor do I feel they outran their pre-race expectations.(in four of the races the early speed finished last.




This will be my last post on this matter. I will \'respectfully not engage in any \"banter\" LOL.

Bob

[jbelfior]

Jim:
My point was not to rate his performance. I\'ll leave that to TG. My point was that the race is exactly what he needed from a conditioning standpoint.

May all be moot as pointed out by others that BR may not go or not get in. My list right now is a short one. TG was right---the west coast is slower.That being said, what to make of a west coast based maiden who wins the BG while running the length of the stretch on his wrong lead?!

In my mind,it eliminates PJ who is a nice 3yo with good numbers and may go on to win a 1 1/4 race this year. However I seriously doubt it will be in May. He was cranked for this one, unlike McCracken (who is on my short list).

As for the Wood winner, I\'m thinking another bounce is coming.

Let\'s see what surprises Arkansas has in store for us.

Good Luck,
Joe B.