Saturday Preps - Thoughts

[rezlegal]

Joe- am curious why you state PJ was \" cranked up \" for the BlueGrass. It was his second start of year, lost ground on both turns and clearly hung in stretch. Given the connections- the owners are breeders- I would think third off- the Derby- would be fully cranked time, particularly in Chad Browns hands. As you state, he had a lovely sheet and it is possible this backward move - if not too far back- might be suggestive of a  new top coming. He has flown under the radar discussion wise and may be  more than 10-1, perhaps substantially more. His breeding on dams side does not cry out 1 1/4 but ain\'t bad. Curious as to your reasoning.Thanks

[richiebee]

Ray Paulick may have summarized it best: \"Based on several tweets, no horse can possibly win the 2017 Kentucky Derby.\"

Obviously a great betting event, here\'s hoping the attrition rate is low over the next month.

[jimbo66]

Rezlegal

Not sure it was a backward move for practical joke.

Would bet it wasn\'t.   Which is why I said he is going to have a nice looking sheet heading into the derby

Jim

[KeithB]

First Pletcher horse to drop out of the Derby chase is One Liner.
Pletcher says the horse was just not working like he should and will get a freshening. I think that the negative number in his last race might have had something to do with it.Too fast too soon.

[jbelfior]

rezlegal Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Joe- am curious why you state PJ was \" cranked up
> \" for the BlueGrass. It was his second start of
> year, lost ground on both turns and clearly hung
> in stretch. Given the connections- the owners are
> breeders- I would think third off- the Derby-
> would be fully cranked time, particularly in Chad
> Browns hands. As you state, he had a lovely sheet
> and it is possible this backward move - if not too
> far back- might be suggestive of a  new top
> coming. He has flown under the radar discussion
> wise and may be  more than 10-1, perhaps
> substantially more. His breeding on dams side does
> not cry out 1 1/4 but ain\'t bad. Curious as to
> your reasoning.Thanks


Did he look like he was prepping? From just a visual perspective (and yes,I   realize he has a good looking Derby sheet) PJ right now is not much more than  a one turn closer in graded company.

IMO has a better chance of winning the Met Mile than the Kentucky Derby.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[rezlegal]

FWIW-PJ one of 5 dual qualifiers ( Mc Craven and Gormely among others). I realize the dual qualifier is no longer as fashionable but it does suggest 1 1/4 not out of reach.

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

Whose head is stuck under the Kool Aide bucket now?
A nice looking sheet, maybe with a pair?

The eye test:
Three 2 turn races no wins and couldn\'t pass an 0-7 maiden in the stretch that came into the Bluegrass with a top of 6.75

If you could get 40/1 on May 6th it\'s worth a shot off his pretty sheet but you\'ll be lucky to get 15/1 with Chad and the price compaction trend of recent years.

JB was right we nuts are coming out of our shells !!!

Frank D.

[jimbo66]

Frank,

I spent a paragraph saying that Practical Joker looks like a sprinter to me, visually.  And siblings are sprinters.

That said,

2 year old top of \"2\".  with a 2 year old line of 5-5-2-3.

Goes away for the winter.

Comes back with a 1 first time out.  Then what I think will be another 1 or thereabouts on Saturday.

Only developed 1 point off the 2-year old top, paired tops maybe this year.

3rd off the layoff into the Derby.  With a good trainer.

15-1 more than fair, if I am right about the Bluegrass number AND he trains well.

You have a bunch of newbie and even board regulars still talking about Pletcher horses that will be half that price with horrendous sheets.  

There are many worse ideas than Practical Joke.  

Will give you the choice of which Pletcher horse you want against him in a matchup bet.  Steak and wine dinner at Saratoga this summer is the bet.  

Jim

[FrankD.]

No TAP soon to be retirees for me thank you.

I\'ll take Giacomo.

Good thing we\'re friends,new nuts would think we\'re arguing!

[Tavasco]

Giacomo c/b masquerading as Hence this year. Of course his sheet is ugly so he can\'t have a chance. But, gotta believe, off his last race, he can get the distance on his best day.

[TGJB]

Hence\'s sheet resembles that of a different Derby bomb.

[boardedup]

Jim, what horse has looked better on the track than AD this prep season?  I certainly am not arguing against anything you\'re saying,horrible pattern, obnoxious forward move, and the trainer that I myself vowed just last year that I\'d never bet in the derby again even if he started 19/20 runners.

But what did you see this weekend that gives you confidence?

[boardedup]

I saw that same stat, and just picking that spot for that horse seemed to scream live, Not trying to red board, in all honesty that was one of two races I actually hit hard Saturday, and in fairness the other was the Bayshore strictly do to the TG seminar giving out the 15-1 shot underneath.  Just acknowledging I saw the same thing.

[jimbo66]

Boardedup,

AD has looked good on the track in one race this prep season.

Irish War Cry looks much better on many levels.  Covered that already.  Don\'t want to clutter the board.

But IWC also has looked good visually twice.  Two open length wins at two different tracks, running fast numbers in both.  

MJ makes a good bounce case, but would like to see how he comes out of the Wood, how he trains and then make a call.  At any rate, certainly a smaller bounce chance than Always Dreamin, on both pattern/sheet and TRAINER.

Jim

[boardedup]

Again, not arguing with anything you say, for my money IWC will be the one I\'m watching closely the next few weeks (like we all aren\'t going to over analysis them all or something??) and what happens next week can certainly change everything as you and others have said above.

 I really was \"rooting\" for more in the stretch out of PJ, I don\'t think he wants any part of 1 1/4, though I think he\'s a very nice horse. I want to find excuses for that one.  I just don\'t know if there\'s anything in the numbers or in his training over the next month that\'ll change my mind unfortunately.

BTW I also liked Orb and Firing Line... and I think Danza ran much much better than history tends to remember, cheers