Giacomo

[Tavasco]

In the 2005 Kentucky Derby, run as late in May as is possible, Giacomo came from 18th of 20 starters going 8 wide in the lane to win @ 50/1. He keyed a $2 ex of $9,814.80 and a $2 Tri of $138k thanks to 30/1 Don\'t Get Mad (who was 10 wide) in fourth the $1 super payout was approaching $1M @ $864k.Just a reminder of what potential rewards are available.

I don\'t know what the 2005 seminar had to say because I haven\'t got the needed plugin to work and I don\'t want to restart my browser while in the middle of composing this post. Maybe I can edit later.

But who did he beat? Equally surprising was the place horse Closing Argument @ 70/1 who was outside of Giacomo. Oh yeh, there was Afleet Alex @ 9/2 picking up the show honor.

The fickle crown had fallen in love with Bellamy Road the 5/2 favorite (after winning the Wood with a -5). Bandini and High Fly had considerable support. Bandini (Pletcher/Velaquez) was coming in after winning the Bluegrass with a -3. He is still bouncing and finished 19/20. High Fly Zito/Bailey had won the Florida Derby and this race turned out to be his worst to date.

The problem for many was of course that Spanish Chesnut under the astute handling of Joe Bravo went the first 6F in 1:09.59 and a lot of other (experienced profession riders went with him). I suppose High Limit (Frankel/Dominguez) @ 22/1 looked to be the play of the race but he got bumper car\'d went with the leader and finished last possibly injured I don\'t know. But his line looked good before the race.

I believe the potential in 2017 for stupid fast pace exists. Many of the jockey\'s are new from 2005 yet the potential of human error is always present. Which horse is Mike Smith riding?

I think 2005 was an anomaly. But I couldn\'t help notice that the negative number earners in the big eastern preps just didn\'t fair very well. I\'d love to see someone else break down who MTB and Animal Kingdom beat in perspective.

[FrankD.]

Wide Mike,(sorry P Dub, it was said with love)

Is riding Untrapped on Saturday. I would assume in a Baffert less Derby he would stay on with a good race, only needs to get 4th to get in. Slow but going in the correct direction and will be running at the end.

[KeithB]

I read yesterday that with Hernandez selecting to ride McCraken that Mike Smith will ride the Louisiana Derby winner Girvin in the Kentucky Derby.

[TheBull]

I was actually going to post on this same subject.....I remember the 2005 Derby well (i had a senior Marketing class project which was a semester long blog on any topic, which I chose to do the leadup to the 2005 Derby).......

Anyways, alot has been made about this derby being similar to 2005 and may produce a similar result and I aggressively disagree.

1.) There are no clear, consistent standouts who will take a ton of money thus inflating many horse\'s odds into 40-50/1 range. In 2005, both Bellamy Road and Afleet Alex had very strong consistent campaigns leading up to the Derby and both went off around 2/1. Sprinkle in Bandini and High Fly and you had some very highly regarded horses by the public and beyond. This year, I see many inconsistent types who at one time or another, have been highly doubted and neglected. The favorite may be in the 4/1 range with a lot of 15/1-20/1 types. You wont see a ton of 40-50/1 shot this year due to how long the favorites will be.

More importantly

2.) There is no cheap, sprinter type speed the way we had seen in many pre points system Derbies. In 2005 you had Spanish Chestnut and Going Wild who were glorified sprinters who have serious distance limits but high speed. I believe Spanish Chestnut was a rabbit for Bandini, ensuring a 45 n change half. This year I dont see a hot suicide pace from crack sprinters like that.


Speaking of which.....does State of Honor remind anyone of Shackleford at all? Just curious everyone\'s thoughts on this glorious time of year.

[johnnym]

Last year I remember the talk of lack of speed,then Danzing Candy went out and ran a half mile in 45.3.
Spanish Chestnut ran his in 45.1
In 2013 Derby Palace Malace ran his half in 45.1
In 2014 47.2 half ran by Uncle Sigh
2015 47.1 half by Dortmund
If memory serves me correct these are the 4 years since the point system was brought to town.
I would be very confident in saying since the point system started,speed was prevalent 50% of time.

[ajkreider]

Very much agree with your first point.  This crop gets beat up a bit, but it\'s faster than last year\'s group.  I think there were 6 horses with a 1 or better going in last year (and only one of those was negative - Destin).  There might a 10 or so this year, even without Mastery and One Liner.

[TheBull]

Agreed. Tough to analyze the context of those times without knowing track speed, but it is also worth noting that Palace Malice was in the slop, and last year, the 20 post may have forced Danzig Candy to be so aggressively used for his 45.72 half. Even so, the two chasing him were quality animals (1st and 3rd place finisher) not slugs. Last year could just be an outlier with so many bad, overhyped horses behind them (Mohaymen, Destin, Outwork, My Man Sam). Other than Tom\'s Ready, have any of them won a gr stk since the derby?

Either way, at the end of the day, we are dealing in probabilities. If I had to say which is more likely, I\'d guess that the meltdown scenarios that produced crazy results in years past is not as likely this year. If a bomb is going to win, it may have to be one who is closer to the lead....particularly given the traffic and ground loss that befalls a more bunched field.