Arkansas Derby

[ajkreider]

1 - Rockin\' Rudy.  Maybe the connections think lightning can strike twice (Irap), but moving from 6.5 furlong downhill turf race to two turns on the dirt?  C\'mon man. But should at least provide an honest pace, even w/o blinkers.

2 - Classic Empire.  Could see him getting back in the ball park of last year\'s number, but not touching at 8-5.

3 - Silver Dust.  Lightly raced, so could move forward.  But like others more.

4 - Petrov.  Fires every time, and a nice effort two back.  Will play at 12-1 hoping he gets back to that.

5 - Grandpa\'s Dream.  Who?

6 - Lookin at Lee.  The only horse making up ground on the winner in the lane last out.  Jock had to steer him all over the place in the stretch, which probably cost him a spot.  Numbers aren\'t great but will be running at the end.  Playing at 15-1.

7.  Sonneteer.  Another that ran on great - passed the winner on the gallop out if memory serves.  Not lightly raced, so we may have seen his limit figure wise, but worth finding out at 15-1.

8.  Rowdy the Warrior.  Not competitive at Remington.  Wishful thinking by connections.

9.  Untrapped.  Another who always fires.  Nice move wide on the turn.  A much better bargain than the two favorites at 6-1.  

10.  One Dreamy Dude.  A maiden who hasn\'t been competitive.

11.  Conquest Mo Money.  The Sunland obviously had some talent in it.  Like that this one won\'t be running under a big jump up in weight.  An overlay at 15-1.

12.  Malagacy.  Going too far.  Fig last out even in a win was nothing to write home about, and suggests the extra distance slows him down.  Pass

Win bets on

Lookin at Lee, Sonneteer, Petrov and Conquest Mo Money.

Exacta of Untrapped over these (and maybe a win bet saver on him too).

[big18741]

Playing one or both of the blinkers on horses(Silver Dust,Untrapped)
to move forward.

Could be wrong but Petrov seems like he wants less distance not more.

[jimbo66]

AJ,

Some interesting thoughts.  But not sure about betting to win on 5 different horses as a conclusion.  

Personally, think the race is horrible.  I liked Petrov until his last.  Worry about distance now.  Malagacy looks like a Kings Bishop horse to me.

Classic Empire, likely less than 8-5, gets an inside post, pace to run at, a likely good trip, beats these for fun if he can run at all.

That said, wouldn\'t be betting the farm on this guy.  

Jim

[ajkreider]

I expect those lines to move some, and that may eliminate a horse or two (Untrapped will drop, I think).  But at 15-1, you can spread the bets out a bit.

[belmont3]

AJ,

Agree with Jimbo on the betting strategy.
Realize the odds are just projections but consider this:

AT 15-1, 15-1, 12-1 and 15-1, the best possible return per $8 betting unit is $32.00.
Your effective odds per betting unit is 3-1.

Adding an exacta saver in the same betting denomination doubles betting unit to $16.

In the short run, this type of quasi \"dutch\" betting may be profitable but, in the long run you might contract a bad case of \"Tulipomania\". .

Making that type of play really depends on your level of conviction.

Best of luck

Bob

[ajkreider]

This is a good question about betting strategies.  Ultimately, the issue isn\'t really about what the odds turn out to be, but rather what the actual return is vs. expected return, given the evidence - an even money bet being a good bet, if the evidence suggests that the odds should be 1-5. This is true even in dutch book situations like horse racing (And it\'s also why Frank Ramsey was wrong about beliefs and probability assessments. That betting on each horse is irrational does make each individual bet irrational, as it would in, say, roulette).  Maybe this is just what you meant by \"conviction\".

The question here is whether getting 3-1 is enough for tossing the two favorites (and I may re-think Silver Dust and Petrov, given big\'s and Jimbo\'s comments).

[TGJB]

Somewhere on this site are some suggested betting strategies. You will find that if you can articulate what it is you like about a race-- by which I mean verbally, out loud-- it will lead to your understanding of how to bet the race.

To start with, articulate why you want to \"toss\" the horses in question, and what toss means, exactly...

[richiebee]

Some questions about Classic Empire/Ark Derby:

1) I seem to recall that Arkansas Derby runners are saddled in the infield. If
not, they are saddled in OP\'s enclosed saddling area. How will Classic Empire
handle either of these scenarios? If entered in the Ky Derby, how will he handle
the large paddock crowd?

2) If he wins at OP, can he recover in 3 weeks for the Ky Derby? Will Casse send
CE back to Ocala for his final preparations?

3) If CE wins the Ark Derby, does he go to Louisville as a favorite in the 3/1
-4/1 range?

This is an interesting race because the two favorites are CE and Malagacy. Casse
would love to win the Ark Derby, but he wouldn\'t mind a placing which garnered CE
the necessary points while not emptying out the tank. If Malagacy is headed for
the Derby, TAP might be satisfied with a Tapwrit in the Blue Grass type \"out for air\" performance.

Contrarian Musings:

Gormley wins the Derby, continuing West Coast dominance even with a small
Baffertless contingent.

or

TAP sweeps the Triple Crown races with three different horses.

[BitPlayer]

To me, this comes back to TGJB\'s advice that first you decide what you like about the race and that should guide how you bet it.

As for disliking the favorites, I\'m with you on Malagacy, but still wonder about Classic Empire.  8/5 translates to about 32% to win the race.  Even if he only gets back to his bad effort in the Holy Bull, he is competitive in here. If he moves forward from that a couple of points, he\'ll be hard to keep out of the exacta. He\'s giving weight to some of these, but has an inside draw.  From what I have read about his appearance tipping his bad effort in the Holy Bull, it seems like he has to be a game-time decision.

If you particularly like one of the others to jump up, which one?  And by how much?  Too often, I wind up covering a lot of longshots in a race like this just for suicide insurance, and then wind up kicking myself for investing too much money in a race about which I lacked a solid opinion.

[TempletonPeck]

Excellent advice, along the lines of checking your grammar/sentence structure by reading your writing aloud. You may say to yourself \"I hate the favorite, so instead will bet these horses to win,\" and realize that your motivation doesn\'t perfectly match your action.

I frequently consult this reference:
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/betting%20guidelines.html

As it applies here, if your opinion on the race is to toss either or both favorites, you may better express that opinion by playing exactas or trifectas that exclude those weak favorites.

[TGJB]

Not to sound like Bill Clinton, but it depends on the meaning of the word toss.

If by that you think there\'s a good chance the favorites won\'t run well, yeah. Something like a spread exotic box against them, or keying a longshot you think is likely to run well but isn\'t that fast in exotics (and there are some here), which lets you cash even if one (possibly both) of the favorites do fire. Or possibly using two of the longer ones to both run well, in tri and/or super rundowns with the other contenders, both longshots having to get a piece.

But if \"toss\" means you don\'t like them to win, that\'s a whole different thing. Sometimes they overbet a horse that just isn\'t that fast even if he does run his race, and I generally try to beat them in multi-race bets. Especially if there\'s more than one in the sequence.

[Tavasco]

AJ, I\'m comfortable with your handicapping. I\'m also confortable with your betting strategy. For me the essential factor is what probability do you attribute to one of your group of 4 choices winning.

My perspective is say 33% and that results in a projected positive outcome. Initially I considered a more aggressive approach such as exacta boxes or even trifectas.

While tossing the two favorites from the top spot is one thing tossing them both from the exacta is questionable because I don\'t have a good handle of exacta payoffs.  Could I get something near 180/1 ex?

Tossing both favorites from the tri is either foolish or too bold for me. The popular idea that Malagacy can\'t get the 1 +1/8 seems plausible until I consider the contrary and and question the logic. Easy to visualize him hanging late and losing yet stumbling home second or third. The colt\'s physical appearance is that of a sprinter imo. Is that enough? probably not.

Similar issue with Classic Empire, he may not run his good race and win but easy to imagine him rallying late to finish 2nd or third. I think CE actually would need to be off form or encounter major trouble to not be in the mix at the finish and I estimate its at least 50% he is not off form i.e. is likely to be running at the finish

I enjoyed your analysis.

[TempletonPeck]

Agreed, and related, important to distinguish a \'toss\' from an \'underlay,\' as reasons for betting a race/choosing which bet to make. I think often we are tempted to say (or to find justification for saying) \"He\'s a toss!\" When what we really mean is \"Horse X can win the race, perhaps even is the most likely winner, but I don\'t want to take the price offered.\"

[TGJB]

And also related, a horse may be an underlay straight, but the exacta with your longshot may not be an underlay.

[ajkreider]

Thanks for the comments Tavasco,

I\'m leaving Malagacy out of everything - not least because of the post and the pace.  I don\'t know how his form will translate to dirt, but Rockin\' Rudy\'s has led the field through :21 and :43+ in his last two.  CE wants to be up on it, so he\'s going with him.  Petrov will be at most a couple of lengths back.  Untrapped with blinkers will be about the same.  Hell, Grandpa whatever led through 1/4 in his last. Malagacy will be wide, and that\'s reason enough to leave him off at 2-1.
 
You (and JB, and Templeton) make a good point about Classic Empire and the exacta.  A just decent effort puts him in the mix, and him on top of the longshots will be a reasonable return.  And a tri with CE/Untrapped/the longshots will definitely pay - but now things are getting expensive, to include a horse about whose form I have serious reservations.

Of the longshots, given the pace it sets up for Lookin at Lee.  The others will depend on the final odds.  Warming to Silver.